Grade 3, $200,000 Holy Bull Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream Park, Jan. 30, 2021 (10 Derby qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth) Winner: Greatest Honour, by Tapit Trainer: Shug McGaughey Jockey: Jose Ortiz Owner: Courtlandt Farms Beyer Speed Figure: 89 Shug McGaughey is one of the greatest trainers this sport has ever known. For 40 years he has produced top-class runners, and he’s not a one-trick trainer. He wins with 2-year-olds, older runners, sprinters, long-distance runners, on turf, and on dirt. There’s nothing he can’t do. The hallmark of his approach, though, is patience. McGaughey won the Kentucky Derby in 2013 with Orb, and the parallels to this point with GREATEST HONOUR are striking. Both finished third in their debuts, sprinting, at Saratoga. Both had another one-turn race against maidens at Belmont Park, then a third start at Aqueduct, before finally defeating maidens in start number four. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2021: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more In the case of Orb, he then won a first-level allowance at Gulfstream the week of the Holy Bull Stakes, and continued with successive victories in the Fountain of Youth, Florida Derby, and then the Kentucky Derby. In the case of Greatest Honour, instead of a first-level allowance, he went in the Holy Bull, which he won convincingly. McGaughey has followed a similar template as with Orb, and looks to have a colt who is ahead of where Orb was at this point. Greatest Honour has improved his Beyer figures with every start. The 89 he got here is still short of what the division’s leaders are running at this point, but there is every reason to believe Greatest Honour is going to continue to improve, especially as the distances of these preps increase. He’s in the hands of a master trainer who plays the long game. This is a top-flight Derby contender. In this race, Greatest Honour lacked early speed, per usual, and settled toward the rear of the field while in the two path around the first turn. He split rivals midway down the backstretch and went into the far turn four paths wide and in the clear. He was sent along with a brisk hand ride on the turn, and by the time he reached the leaders, Ortiz was sneaking a peek back to see if anyone was gaining. The answer: no. Greatest Honour was asked for his best coming off the bend, and he responded, quickly opening daylight on his rivals. He never was in danger the final furlong and won as much best. He probably didn’t beat all that much, but he passed the eye test. TARANTINO, who finished second, was making his first start on dirt after three grass races. He was hustled away from the gate to press the pace outside WILLY BOI around the first turn, was even with Willy Boi midway through the race, was sent along with urgency midway on the far turn, could not stay with the winner but kept to his task, turned back PRIME FACTOR, and finished well in front of everyone else. Not a bad effort at all compared to the rest of the field, but he was no match for the winner. Prime Factor, who was third, went into the first turn in the four path, and then wound up in the three path, behind and outside Willy Boi and Tarantino. He ranged up outside those two in the three path on the far turn, drifted out slightly late on the turn as Greatest Honour swooped past him, was even with Tarantino entering the lane, but flattened out. This was a big ask considering all he had done prior was win a six-furlong maiden race. He’ll have to take a big step forward next time, though. Derby Day is just three months away. PAPETU, who was fourth, raced midpack around the first turn while saving ground, then was sent along late on the backstretch to be on the heels of Willy Boi entering the far turn. He couldn’t match strides with Greatest Honour nor Prime Factor rounding the turn, drifted to the four path entering the lane, was late to change leads, and plugged away to get a minor share. He looks like he’s best as a late-running, one-turn horse. JIRAFALES, who finished fifth, broke slowly, then raced toward the rear of the field while saving ground around the first turn. He dropped back to last down the backstretch, continued to hug the rail the rest of the way, and passed some tired rivals while never getting involved. Like Prime Factor, he only had a debut maiden win sprinting to his credit, so this was a tall order. SITTIN ON GO, who was sixth, stumbled leaving the gate, leaving him last into the first turn. He was well back throughout, raced outside Jirafales the last half of the race, and was nosed out by Jirafales for fifth. Perhaps the stumble will be used to excuse this performance, but the evidence is overwhelming that he’s a one-run, one-turn horse, as already noted in my analyses of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2021-kentucky-derby-breeders-cup-juvenile-analysis) and Kentucky Jockey Club (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2021-kentucky-derby-kentucky-jockey-club-stakes-analysis). He’s 2 for 2 around one turn, and has three ugly races around two turns. The Pat Day Mile is a more logical goal than the Kentucky Derby. AWESOME GERRY, who was seventh, was able to drop over from his outside draw to race midpack, in about the two to three path, around the first turn. He began to get outrun heading toward the far turn, was in the three path on the turn, and kept company to the wire with Jirafales and Sittin On Go. He deserved a shot against these after five prior starts, but he’s just not this good. Willy Boi, who was eighth, broke best and led around the first turn while setting a solid pace. He remained in front until midway on the far turn, began to tire, then emptied out. He was 2 for 2 sprinting prior to this, so a return to sprints seems in order. AMOUNT, who was last of nine, balked at the starting gate and was difficult to load. That was a preview of coming attractions. He broke well, then eased back between horses around the first turn to sit just behind Willy Boi and Tarantino. He was between rivals while just behind the leaders heading toward the far turn, but completely surrendered three furlongs out, and was pulled up. The official chart notes that he walked off the course. Like Jirafales and Prime Factor, he came into this race with merely a debut sprint win against maidens to his credit. As Greatest Honour showed here, sometimes there’s no substitute for experience.