Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Haskell Stakes analysis

Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Monmouth Park, July 18, 2020
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Authentic, by Into Mischief
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Owner: Spendthrift Farm, My Racehorse, Madaket Stable, and Starlight Racing
Beyer Speed Figure: 100

Here’s one of the more confounding races to analyze in quite a while. On one hand, AUTHENTIC just lasted to win going 1 1/8 miles, continuing to give the indication, as I’ve noted many times previously in these analyses – like after the Santa Anita Derby and the Sham – and in my weekly comments in the Derby Watch grid, that extra distance looks like it will be a challenge.

On the other hand, Authentic earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure in this race, equaling the fig earned by Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes, for instance.

So, how am I wrestling with those seemingly conflicting pieces of information?

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I do believe Authentic is an extremely talented colt. I’m also of the belief that he is far better at a mile or 1 1/16 miles than 1 1/8 miles and beyond. To date, he’s run five times and won four of them, and the only horse who has finished in front of him is Honor A. P. – the current second choice for the Derby – in the Santa Anita Derby. That’s a terrific, enviable record.

If the Kentucky Derby was at a mile, I’m not sure any 3-year-old in the country could beat him. But when projecting his ability out to 1 1/4 miles, I don’t think Authentic will be as comfortable as say, Honor A. P., Tiz the Law, Art Collector, or even his lightly raced barnmate Uncle Chuck. The Beyer figure Authentic got in this race could very well be the result of a 3-year-old continuing to mature through the summer. But I’m of the belief that even with more maturity and physical development through Sept. 5, the distance of the Derby will water down his effectiveness.

This is not an exact science, as every handicapper knows. Projecting how horses will develop toward the Derby is a fun exercise that shows how right you can be (witness this space’s boosting of Honor A. P. going back months) and how wrong (witness this space’s positive comments earlier this year on Enforceable, who hasn’t progressed as much as hoped).

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It will be interesting to see how bettors regard Authentic on Derby Day. On figs, he should be no worse than the fourth choice. But doubts about his aptitude at 10 furlongs likely will raise his price. Those who stay in his camp likely will get more than a square price on him. I reserve the right to change my mind depending on how he trains, and who all ultimately ends up in the Derby, but seven weeks out I remain circumspect regarding his chances of staying the trip.

In this race, Authentic – who often has broken sloppily – came out alertly under Smith and went straight to the front, with NY TRAFFIC just to this outside, stalking him from about a length away around the first turn. Authentic set a moderate pace while not displaying the overeagerness he had in prior races. He was going well within himself around the far turn, as evidenced by his ears being pricked forward, despite Ny Traffic being right behind him. In upper stretch, he kicked clear, and opened a seemingly insurmountable lead. But it got very interesting in the final sixteenth. Smith had been merely hand-riding Authentic to the sixteenth pole, but suddenly had to flash the whip as Ny Traffic made it close.

Ny Traffic, who finished second, has now been the runner-up in three straight major races, including the Louisiana Derby and Matt Winn. I’ve often felt he was the beneficiary of soft paces, but he’s clearly improving, and this was his best performance yet. He sat second just behind and outside of Authentic around the first turn, down the backstretch, and around the far turn, couldn’t stay with Authentic in upper stretch despite heavy urging from Paco Lopez, but kept to his task and just did miss. He galloped out slightly in front of Authentic.

DR POST, who was third, checked slightly about 150 yards out of the gate and got shuffled back toward the rear of the field. He saved ground around the first turn while following JESUS’ TEAM, was sent along three furlongs out and was guided to the three path around the far turn, bumped with Jesus’ Team while swinging four paths wide into the lane, then finished evenly while not threatening the top two in a race where the top two were one-two throughout. He deserves some credit for being the only horse who made up ground.

Jesus’ Team, who was fourth, raced midpack while hugging the rail around the first turn, advanced to be just inside of Ny Traffic six furlongs out, and was right behind the top two heading into the far turn while saving ground. He was under an aggressive ride around the turn, was guided to the three path coming off the bend, bumped with Dr Post, lugged in a bit in upper stretch, and was outrun late.

The rest were far, far back.

FAME TO FAMOUS, who was fifth, trailed early while racing on his wrong lead, was in the three path around the first turn, remained well back while three to four paths wide on the far turn, and only passed a couple of tired rivals.

LEBDA, who was sixth, eased back inside of Ny Traffic coming under the wire the first time, went into the first turn midpack while just outside of Jesus’ Team, was asked to pick it up three furlongs out, but was done well before reaching the quarter pole and steadily retreated.

ANCIENT WARRIOR, who finished last of seven, was shuffled back between rivals a sixteenth of a mile into the race, went into the first turn in the two path, just outside Dr Post, then was left in the dust by Dr Post three furlongs out fell back to last.