Road the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Santa Anita Derby analysis

Grade 1, $401,000 Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Santa Anita, June 6, 2020
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)
Winner: Honor A. P., by Honor Code
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Mike Smith
Owner: C R K Stable LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 102

Regular readers in this space and the weekly Derby Watch updates are well aware I’m a huge fan of HONOR A. P., so it was gratifying to see him show the progress expected with his clear-cut victory in this race. He earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure while confirming that he’s just getting warmed up at middle distances, which should serve him well down the line in the 1 1/4-mile races that will be his focal point the second half of the year.

Honor A. P. had a terrific prep in the San Felipe, his first start in nearly five months, and then made a big forward move here to avenge his loss to AUTHENTIC. Honor A.P. has all the tools – top trainer, Hall of Fame jockey, pedigree, looks – to be a major contender three months hence in the Derby, and he only figures to improve in that time.

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In this race, Honor A. P. was able to get into a good, comfortable stride leaving the gate and went into the first turn three paths wide, outside the second flight of horses, while tracking Authentic. He remained in the clear outside rivals down the backstretch, then was angled to the four path on the far turn to go after the leaders. It took him a few strides to find his best gear after Smith first asked, but once he was rolling he quickly got to Authentic coming into the lane. He gradually increased his advantage through the stretch, and galloped out powerfully. He’s a big, long-striding horse, so the trip he had was ideal. With his stride and style, it’s better to lose a bit of ground than risk getting stopped.

Authentic, who finished second, veered to his right from his outside stall, then was quickly corrected and went up to vie for the lead while three paths wide while slightly keen. He remained outside SHOOTERS SHOOT and ANNEAU D’OR down the backstretch while finally coming to hand, was three paths wide on the far turn, was collared by Honor A. P. just as he was passing his two pace rivals, couldn’t go with Honor A. P. through the lane, but held the place. The pace (23.07 seconds and 46.88) was solid, and he took the worst of it being wide, and he finished well in front of those early challengers. All of that is encouraging. However, he may very well be reaching the outer limits of his comfort level, so going out to 1 1/4 miles for the Derby doesn’t appear as if it will suit him like it will Honor A. P. He’s a very good horse, but middle distances might be his wheelhouse.

RUSHIE, who was third, broke well and then used his inside draw to save ground, following Shooters Shoot, around the first turn. He stayed in that spot down the backside while even with Honor A. P., couldn’t keep pace with Honor A. P. nearing the quarter pole, but kept to his task and finished well after a very good trip (it’s Flavien Prat, what else is new?). He’s a progressive colt who’s probably not quite this good quite yet, but continues to make promising, forward moves for a top barn.

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Anneau d’Or, who was fourth, pressed the pace between rivals around the first turn, stayed in that spot down the backstretch and around the far turn, couldn’t go with the top two passing the furlong grounds, and steadily tired. This was his best race of the year, but he really hasn’t progressed since his good races at 2 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – which has proven to be a negative key race – and the Los Alamitos Futurity. Perhaps he should go back to the grass; he was a dynamic maiden winner in his lone try on that surface.

Shooters Shoot, who was fifth, was hustled away from the gate to take the lead while inside a three-way battle, was ridden along heading into the far turn to try and stave off his challengers, began to weaken coming into the lane, and faded. He probably wants a slightly shorter trip.

FRIAR’S ROAD, who was sixth, bobbled slightly leaving the gate, then trailed into the first turn while following stablemate Rushie. He moved closer heading toward the far turn, but had no response around that turn and was out-footed. This was a tough spot for a maiden.

AZUL COAST, who finished last of seven, was between Rushie and Honor A. P. entering the first turn, but couldn’t keep up with that pair early on the backstretch. He was asked aggressively three furlongs out and had nothing to offer, was on his wrong lead for much of the stretch, and despite being hopelessly out of it was ridden aggressively all the way to the wire.