Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: San Felipe Stakes analysis

Grade 2, $401,000 San Felipe Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita, March 7, 2020
(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)
Winner: Authentic, by Into Mischief
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Owners: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Fred Hertrich III, John D. Fielding, and Golconda Stables
Beyer Speed Figure: 98

There were four current members of the Derby Watch top 20 in this race, making it the most-significant prep run to date. They swept the first four spots, but it was the first two across the line – AUTHENTIC and HONOR A. P. – who made the best impressions.

Authentic is now 3 for 3. He was coming off a similar front-running win in the Sham Stakes two months earlier, but some of the quirkiness he displayed that day, when he ducked in and out through the lane, was absent here. Baffert affixed ear plugs, similar to what he did with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015, and Authentic ran straight and true.

Authentic has terrific tactical early speed, and I liked the way he finished off this race, too. I’ve been skeptical of his chances of handling 1 1/4 miles, but thought this race was a vastly superior effort in terms of time and professionalism compared to the Sham.

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In this race, Authentic bobbled leaving the gate but used his natural speed to outrun THOUSAND WORDS and STORM THE COURT into the first turn. He was quite keen around that turn and into the backstretch, then seemed to come to hand under Van Dyke’s deft handling. He rolled along on the lead going comfortably around the far turn, turned back a bid from Honor A. P. coming off the bend, and was strong to the wire while widening on his opposition in the final furlong.

Honor A. P., who finished second, settled into fourth in the early going while saving ground around the first turn while following Authentic. Entering the backstretch, he was angled off the rail to the center of the track. He was sent along three paths wide on the far turn, loomed menacingly coming off the bend, couldn’t stay with Authentic in the final furlong but persevered to easily save the place. Considering he had not run in nearly five months and missed the Sham owing to a foot bruise, this was a terrific comeback and one from which he should move forward. Plus the way he runs, he acts as though 1 1/4 miles will be right up his alley. If you saw my story on upcoming 3-year-olds to watch prior to Santa Anita’s meet beginning on Dec. 28, or the updates in Derby Watch, you know I think very highly of this guy. Nothing happened here to dissuade me from that opinion.

Storm the Court, who was third, went into the first turn three paths wide while pressing the pace, then took up the chase from second into the backstretch. He thus was forced to do all the dirty work of keeping Authentic honest. He was ridden along entering the far turn to try and keep up, couldn’t go with the top two coming off the bend, then tired a bit in the final sixteenth. This was an improvement from his comeback when sprinting in the San Vicente. He just ran into two superior animals on the day.

Thousand Words, who was fourth, went into the first turn between Authentic and Storm the Court and then eased back to third while saving ground. He started to be pushed along entering the far turn while continuing to save ground, but had Honor A. P. roar right past him. He saved ground the rest of the way but no fight whatsoever, a huge disappointment for a colt who had shown tenacity and consistency in three prior wins. His next start will be pivotal to see if he merely had a bad day or he’s just not progressing at a rapid enough rate.

The rest were overmatched on paper, and on the racetrack.

WRECKING CREW, who was fifth, raced outside Honor A. P. while in the three path around the first turn, then was pushed wider still when Honor A. P. angled out for room down the backstretch. He tried to rally four paths wide on the far turn, couldn’t go with the top three but was even with Thousand Words a quarter-mile out, was under aggressive urging in upper stretch but emptied out after passing the furlong pole.

FORT McHENRY, who finished sixth, saved ground around the first turn while toward the rear of the pack, was just inside Honor A. P. while following Thousand Words down the backstretch, began to be outrun on the far turn, dropped back and was allowed to finish under his own power.

SWAGSATIONAL, who was last of seven, veered in slightly at the start and was quickly corrected, was outrun to the first turn and was last, began to lose contact with his rivals heading down the backstretch and was badly outrun the rest of the way.