Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Sham Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $100,500 Sham Stakes, one mile, Santa Anita, Jan. 4, 2020
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Authentic, by Into Mischief
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Owners: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Fred Hertrich III, John D. Fielding, and Golconda Stables
Beyer Speed Figure: 90

It’s not easy to go from a 5 1/2-furlong debut win straight into a two-turn stakes race, but AUTHENTIC showed how much natural talent he has by rolling to an easy victory in this, his second start, first around two turns, first against winners, and stakes debut.

Every horse in this race, though, only had a maiden win to his credit, so this essentially was an allowance race that offered points toward the Derby. Authentic is clearly a cut above the five rivals he faced here. He’s got some issues he’ll need to clean up going forward, and it’s still not clear if he’ll be as effective when he has to go 1 1/8 miles and beyond, but he’s obviously got many of the tools that could make him a top contender, most notably tactical early speed.

In this race, that speed, coupled with an inside draw, made it obvious the tactics were to go right to the front. Authentic outsprinted his rivals in the opening yards and had a clear lead a furlong into the race. He went along comfortably while setting a moderate pace while a few lanes off the rail down the backstretch, was sent along three furlongs out and opened up on his competition, and had a commanding lead in upper stretch. As he passed the furlong pole, he ducked in sharply to this left, overcorrected to his right, then ducked in a second time. Van Dyke took a hold of him and let him coast home from there. It obviously didn’t matter this time, because he was so far in front, but he’ll need to be more professional down the line. Baffert said he may put blinkers on him next time. He did gallop out with authority, as though extra distance would be fine.

He has a long, graceful stride, so keeping him in the clear and letting him strut his stuff is paramount. He’s an attractive-looking colt, with a big blaze and white on all four ankles.

AZUL COAST, who finished second, also is trained by Baffert. He does not possess any early speed – hence the reason his debut was going two turns – so he trailed while hugging the rail around the first turn, racing inside of TAISHAN and ZIMBA WARRIOR. He continued to save ground around the far turn, only had to come around the tiring Zimba Warrior in the stretch, but was never close to the winner. With his style, he’ll need a contested pace.

Zimba Warrior, who was third, was making his two-turn debut following five sprints. He settled into fourth early while in the two path around the first turn, was shoved along on the far turn while saving ground and got up to second approaching the quarter pole, was under an aggressive ride the rest of the way but could not save the place. He’s a cut below.

Taishan, who was fourth, was a huge disappointment. He was coming off a second-start maiden win going two turns and had the second-highest Beyer figure entering the race. But he was never seriously involved. He broke half a step slow, then went into the first turn at the back of a compact field while in the three path. He was ridden along heading into the far turn to try and match strides with Azul Coast, raced alongside Azul Coast to the furlong pole, then failed to go with him. At the least, he should have advanced to third, but he had no spark the final three furlongs.

SCORING, who was fifth, had not raced since June, when he was placed first via disqualification in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden race, so this was an ambitious comeback spot, one necessitated by the lack of first-level allowance races filling. He was three paths wide around the first turn while right outside UNCAPTURED HERO, remained in the three path on the far turn, began to lose ground midway on the turn, angled to the four path entering the lane, did not change leads in upper stretch, and steadily retreated.

Uncaptured Hero, who was last of six, was closest to Authentic early, got up to the winner’s hip three furlongs out, but quickly saw the winner widen on him as he came under a ride, was done before reaching the quarter pole, and tired.