Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Ellis Park Derby analysis

$193,750 Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Ellis Park, Aug. 9, 2020
(50 Derby qualifying points for first, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Art Collector, by Bernardini
Trainer: Tommy Drury Jr.
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Owner: Bruce Lunsford
Beyer Speed Figure: 100

Tiz the Law is the acknowledged favorite for the Kentucky Derby, but there’s plenty to like about ART COLLECTOR, who like Tiz the Law is now 4 for 4 this year following this final race prior to the Derby. He has now won three straight races at three different tracks while recording a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 or better in those races. Also like Tiz the Law, he puts himself in good position early with tactical speed, then finishes the race off well.

In this race, Art Collector broke well and, owing to his natural speed and inside draw, made the lead while being kept in the two path around the first turn. (Sidebar: Long-time readers of this space know I’m a huge fan of the smart tactics regularly employed by Hernandez, and here’s another example. First off, by staying off the rail he gives his horse a chance to set the pace without being pushed down. And by going to the lead in a race that’s a prep, he avoids any chance of getting trapped and not getting enough out of the race. This is a thinking-man’s rider, a horseman attuned not only to what a horse needs today, but will need in the future.) Art Collector led narrowly from TRUCULENT heading down the backside, put away that rival three furlongs out, and was next challenged by DEAN MARTINI and ATTACHMENT RATE heading around the far turn while still going along comfortably. He kicked clear in upper stretch, was given one light, right-handed reminder a sixteenth out, then was taken in hand late while swapping over to his wrong lead, which he did in the Blue Grass, too.

Attachment Rate, who finished second, was sent away from the gate but, owing to his outside draw, went into the first turn five paths wide before eventually getting to the four path. He never could get over down the backstretch and was three to four paths wide around the far turn while advancing to nearly get on even terms with Art Collector. He couldn’t stay with Art Collector through the lane, but kept to his task and was well clear of everyone else. Considering all the ground he lost while facing a top-notch rival, this has to rank as his best performance yet.

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NECKER ISLAND, who was third, was shuffled back between rivals heading into the first turn and lost position. He raced in the three path on that turn, was taken wide down the backstretch and ended up four to five paths wide on the far turn, was late to change leads in upper stretch, and though no threat to the top two continued evenly to get a significant share. He wasn’t going to beat the top two, but he could have been closer with a better trip.

ROWDY YATES, who was fourth, went into the first turn as part of a large group just behind the leaders, four paths wide, then angled over to about the two path, where he found himself bottled up in traffic. He continued between rivals until nearing the far turn, angled out to about the three path on the turn while in the second flight of runners, drifted out in upper stretch while under left-handed encouragement, but couldn’t make any impact the final quarter-mile. Nine furlongs is stretching him.

SHARED SENSE, who was fifth, lacks early speed, so he was taken in hand soon after the start and was angled over from his outside draw to save ground around the first turn while trailing. He was well back down the backstretch, saved some ground initially on the far turn before being angled about five to six paths wide entering the lane, then made some late progress.

Dean Martini, who finished sixth, was hustled away from the gate to attend the early pace around the first turn while about four paths wide. He moved to challenge for the lead around the far turn while between Art Collector and Attachment Rate, started to weaken before reaching the quarter pole, and tired through the lane.

WINNING IMPRESSION, who was seventh, dropped in to save ground after breaking from an outside stall and went into the first turn toward the rear of the field in the two path. He failed to quicken on the far turn and fell back to last at one point, got fanned by Shared Sense to about the six or seven path entering the lane, and passed a few tired rivals through the stretch.

ANNEAU D’OR, who was eighth, broke poorly and was in front of only Shared Sense around the first turn while racing inside Winning Impression. He was angled out to about the four path rounding the far turn while making a very mild rally, but was done by the furlong pole. He’s just not the same horse as seen late last year. As I noted after the Santa Anita Derby, I’d really like to see him go back to the grass. At this point he probably could use a freshening, too.

SPRAWL, who was ninth, got shuffled back around the first turn and lost position while saving ground. Taken outside rivals down the backstretch, he launched a rally heading into the far turn and made a bit of progress, but that brief run was over before he reached the quarter pole, and he faded through the lane.

TRIDENT HIT, who was 10th, saved ground into the first turn while just behind the leaders, went around the stopping Truculent on the far turn before angling back inside, but always was outrun in a dull try.

LITTLE MENACE, who was 11th, was squeezed between rivals while forwardly placed heading into the first turn, then dropped to the rail and wound up right behind Art Collector. He stayed in that spot to the far turn, was asked to go but had nothing, then was allowed to coast home the final three-sixteenths after that failure to respond.

Truculent, who finished last of 12, was sent along from the start and raced just outside of Art Collector around the first turn. He continued to press the pace to the far turn, at which point he began to weaken, and then he faltered badly around the far turn to where he was last before even reaching the quarter pole.