Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Blue Grass Stakes analysis

Grade 2, $600,000 Blue Grass Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Keeneland, July 11, 2020
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Art Collector, by Bernardini
Trainer: Tom Drury Jr.
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Owner: Bruce Lunsford
Beyer Speed Figure: 103

ART COLLECTOR is one of several horses who have become major players in this year’s Derby owing to the race’s postponement for four months. He did not make his first start of the year until May 17, 15 days after the Derby would have been run. He has made three starts this year, and has won all of them in a romp.

This was obviously the most significant, as it was against the best field he has faced. He responded by earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure. He already owns multiple victories at Churchill Downs, the site of the Derby. He is rapidly climbing the Derby rankings and now stands as one of the top choices for the Sept. 5 race.

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In this race, Art Collector broke well and was forwardly placed into the first turn in the two path, between SHIVAREE and SWISS SKYDIVER. Entering the backstretch, Hernandez – who could give a clinic on positional riding – eased back to settle Art Collector into a perfect stalking position, behind the two leaders while deftly getting outside them. Art Collector ranged up outside Swiss Skydiver three furlongs out when RUSHIE tried to advance outside him. He put away Rushie, but took until inside the furlong pole to get past a stubborn Swiss Skydiver before asserting his superiority in the final sixteenth while swapping over to his wrong lead about 70 yards from the finish.

Swiss Skydiver, who finished second, ran a sensational race. A filly facing 12 males, she broke slightly awkwardly but recovered in an instant to go up and volley for the early lead from the three path, then led narrowly over Shivaree down the backstretch. She put away Shivaree early on the far turn but was immediately challenged by both Art Collector and Rushie. She went with Art Collector through the furlong pole and then yielded in the final furlong, but was well clear of everyone else and finished nearly 15 lengths in front of pace rival Shivaree. Her trainer, Kenny McPeek, said after the race that she’d head to the Kentucky Oaks, which seems prudent, as it is against fillies and at 1 1/8 miles as opposed to the Derby’s 1 1/4 miles. But she acquitted herself admirably here.

Rushie, who was third, veered in slightly at the start and then used his outside post to gradually drop over and head into the first turn in midpack while three paths wide. He never could get over down the backstretch and wound up heading into the far turn in the four path, launching a bid outside Art Collector. He couldn’t stay with Art Collector and Swiss Skydiver passing the quarter pole, was outkicked while taking forever to change leads, but re-engaged once changing leads inside the furlong pole, enabling him to hold off the late-runners and maintain third. Not a bad effort at all, but he may be reaching the outer limit of his comfort zone in terms of distance.

ENFORCEABLE, who was fourth, lacked speed per usual and went into the first turn toward the rear of the field while in the two to three path. He failed to quicken when needed entering the far turn and wound up about four to five paths wide, was fanned widest of all entering the lane, and steadily chugged away through the stretch. He showed some gears earlier this year but was too one-paced this time, though he was one of the few to make up ground in this race. Maybe he was knocking off the rust after a layoff of nearly four months, but he needs to be better.

ATTACHMENT RATE, who was fifth, broke a half-step slowly, then was guided to the rail to save ground while toward the rear of the field around the first turn. He made steady progress down the backstretch to enter a contending position behind Shivaree, couldn’t quicken as readily as the top three midway on the turn, had to only come around Shivaree on that turn, then finished evenly along the rail while no threat to the top pair. He’s a cut below the division’s best at the moment.

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MR. BIG NEWS, who was sixth, stumbled badly leaving the gate, then righted himself and wound up just inside Rushie around the first turn. He had to tap on the brakes entering the backstretch when in traffic, got shuffled back and had to await room entering the far turn, couldn’t accelerate when needed midway on the turn, and finished evenly. He’s probably not quite this good, but he had some legitimate excuses here that prevented him from maximizing his potential.

FINNICK THE FIERCE, who finished seventh, broke slowly and was in front of only one horse into the first turn. He was toward the inside nearing the far turn, but gradually was angled to about the five path on the turn and made a sharp rally, got up to fourth in upper stretch while just behind Rushie, then emptied out. If that run can be timed a bit better, he can improve. As with Mr. Big News, he had enough excuses to believe he can do better while also indicating he’s probably not quite top-shelf.

TIESTO, who was eighth, was drawn widest of all and went into the first turn in the three path while toward the rear of the field. He was outrun heading into the far turn, dropped down to save ground for most of the turn, was angled out three wide entering the lane, but never was a factor at any point. According to the race chart, he was “vanned off after the race.”

HARD LIGHTNING, who was ninth, raced midpack in the two path around the first turn, dropped back on the far turn when unable to quicken, came into the lane about four paths wide, and passed some tired rivals late while overmatched.

BASIN, who was 10th, went into the first turn about three to four paths wide while just behind Swiss Skydiver. He had nothing to offer when Rushie advanced outside him heading into the far turn, was about three to four paths wide entering the lane, and never had any response in a dull effort.

Shivaree, who was 11th, used his speed and inside draw to take the lead while hugging the rail around the first turn, then raced inside of and slightly behind Swiss Skydiver down the backstretch. He started to retreat heading around the far turn and steadily faded through the field.

HUNT THE FRONT, who was 12th, has no speed and trailed early while on the rail, never left the rail, and never got anywhere close while always well back.

MAN IN THE CAN, who finished last of 13, followed Art Collector around the first turn while just behind the leaders, was sent along three furlongs out, but went in reverse passing the five-sixteenths and was sympathetically ridden through the lane.