Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Arkansas Derby (Division 2) analysis

Grade 1, $500,000 Arkansas Derby (Division 2), 1 1/8 miles, Oaklawn Park, May 2, 2020

(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Nadal, by Blame
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Owners: George Bolton, Arthur Hoyeau, Barry Lipman, and Mark Mathiesen
Beyer Speed Figure: 98

NADAL, like stablemate Charlatan earlier on the card, remained unbeaten by winning the second division of the split Arkansas Derby. His time was slightly faster than that of Charlatan, and thus he got a slightly higher Beyer Speed Figure, one equal to his career best. The pace of this race was slightly slower than the first division through one mile, but the final furlong was faster.

Nadal was coming off a remarkable performance in the Rebel, a race he had no business winning the way it unfolded. This time, instead of being forced to make the running, he was able to sit off an early leader, something he had been taught to do in his workouts following the Rebel. The morning lessons paid off in the afternoon, and should serve him well going forward.

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In this race, Nadal – a big, imposing specimen – had to knife between horses leaving the gate to secure a good spot into the first turn in second, just behind and outside WELLS BAYOU, who had been sent quickly from his wide draw to make the lead. Nadal gradually increased the pressure on the leader down the backstretch, advanced to the lead while rounding the final turn, was slightly late to change leads in upper stretch, turned back a bid from KING GUILLERMO midway through the lane, and came away from his rivals the final 150 yards. His ability to press a strong pace and still finish makes him formidable.

King Guillermo, who finished second, saved ground behind Wells Bayou and inside Nadal around the first turn. He had to be ridden along three furlongs out to hold his position, was angled off the rail midway on the final turn and went after Nadal while under persistent encouragement from Samy Camacho, got closest a furlong out, but couldn’t stay with Nadal in the late going. Still, he was clearly second best, and this proved his Tampa Bay Derby upset was not a fluke. He’s legit.

FINNICK THE FIERCE, who was third, was midpack while following King Guillermo and saving ground around the first turn. He was gradually angled off the rail down the backstretch and went into the far turn in the three path, then seemed to come off the bit for a moment three-eighths out. He was guided back inside to save some ground and re-engaged, was angled out anew entering the lane, and gradually gained on King Guillermo until losing his punch a bit at the very end. This was by far his best race yet.

FARMINGTON ROAD, who was fourth, lacked speed per usual and trailed into the first turn, made an extended run down the backstretch to move closer, continued to advance while three to four paths wide around the far turn, was widest of all into the lane, and went evenly late. Considering his extended run, this was a better-than-looked effort.

Wells Bayou, who was fifth, was sent aggressively from his outside post, crossed over, and made the lead heading into the first turn. His advantage was gradually eaten into by Nadal down the backstretch, and by midway on the far turn he was being urged aggressively to try and stave off the eventual winner. He was overtaken nearing the quarter pole, hung in there until the furlong grounds, but then emptied out. He did not get the made-to-order pace he had when winning the Louisiana Derby.

STORM THE COURT, who was sixth, came off the heels of Finnick the Fierce in the opening furlong and then was angled off the inside to take up a position three paths wide around the first turn while just behind Nadal. He raced alongside King Guillermo most of the backstretch, but had no response when asked three furlongs out and retreated.

SILVER PROSPECTOR, who was seventh, bobbled slightly leaving the gate, then subtly checked as Wells Bayou crossed over. He went into the first turn toward the rear of the pack while three paths wide, made his way to the rail by the far turn and was virtually even with Farmington Road three furlongs out, but never threatened and was ridden sympathetically the final 100 yards. He’s an enigma. He has run some very good races, like in the Southwest, and, like here, some stinkers.

CODE RUNNER, who was eighth, raced between rivals near the back of the pack around the first turn, dropped back between rivals early on the backstretch and trailed, saved ground on the far turn, but was always well back.

TAISHAN, who finished last of nine, checked slightly soon after the start when Wells Bayou crossed over, was gathered up and taken to the rail to follow Finnick the Fierce around the first turn, dropped back approaching the half-mile pole, and was badly outrun the rest of the way in a dull effort.