Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Rebel Stakes analysis

Grade 2, $1 million Rebel Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park, March 14, 2020
(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)
Winner: Nadal, by Blame
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Owners: George Bolton, Arthur Hoyeau, Barry Lipman, and Mark Mathiesen
Beyer Speed Figure: 96

One of the earliest handicapping factors one learns, and which has stood the test of time, is that pace makes the race, and there is no finer example of that concept than this performance by NADAL. His Beyer figure is perfectly fine, but when viewed through the context of how this race unfolded, and what he had to do to win, this performance rates as one of the best seen on the current Derby trail.

Nadal had the rail draw and had to be sent along to take the lead. He set swift fractions of 22.89 seconds for the quarter and 46 seconds for the half. AMERICAN THEOREM was right with him through those fractions; American Theorem wound up getting beat more than 27 lengths. NO PAROLE, who was with those two through the first quarter, was beaten nearly 50 lengths. After disposing of those two, and having two other rivals make bids a quarter-mile out, Nadal had to hold off the longshot EXCESSION, who was last early and was able to rally into that scalding pace. Nadal turned him back, too. All this in his first race around two turns, first on an off track, and in only his third start while having to ship.

Nadal won his debut Jan. 19 at Santa Anita and then came back three weeks later, with a mere half-mile work in between, and still beat a quality field in the seven-furlong San Vicente. With five weeks between starts heading into the Rebel, he was trained far more aggressively – workouts of six, seven, and five furlongs, all best of the morning, all with requisite gallop-outs. He needed that extra conditioning to pull this off, but he couldn’t have done it if he wasn’t a top-class horse.

He's an imposing animal, and his speed allows him good early positioning. Owing to his draw this time, he had to go. If he ever gets a stalking trip where he doesn’t have to be sent along through wicked fractions, look for his Beyer to jump.

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In this race, Nadal used his good speed to take the lead, with No Parole and then American Theorem right alongside him heading into the first turn. He was sent along to maintain a slight lead over American Theorem down the backstretch, started to inch away from American Theorem while rounding the far turn, spurned bids from THREE TECHNIQUE and SILVER PROSPECTOR near the top of the lane, then held safe Excession while he and Excession drew well clear of the rest of the field. He remained in front on the gallop-out, too.

Excession, who finished second, was the beneficiary of the fast pace. He also likes an off track, as he had a win and a third in two prior starts on wet tracks. He has no early speed and went into the first turn at the back of the field while saving ground. Far back down the backstretch, he began to advance on the far turn while continuing to save ground, then had to wait a bit in traffic nearing the quarter pole. He got through inside of Silver Prospector and Three Technique coming off the bend, angled out to take a run at Nadal, but never could get past the winner while slightly drifting out. This was definitely his best race yet, though the pace and off track helped his cause.

BASIN, who was third, saved ground around the first turn while under a snug hold while following the early pacesetters. He seemed a bit keen, understandable as this was his first start in more than six months and his first around two turns. He was more settled going down the backstretch, went into the far turn in the two path, just outside stablemate Silver Prospector, got shuffled back nearing the quarter pole and had to angle to the three path, kept to his task and finished well between rivals. This was a deceptively good race considering the layoff. He can move forward. But whether he wants 10 furlongs is still a question. He definitely likes an off track, as his Hopeful win was earned in the slop.

Three Technique, who was fourth, was three paths wide around the first turn while following American Theorem, never could drop over down the backstretch, and went into the far turn in the four path. He ranged up menacingly outside Nadal and American Theorem rounding the turn, but couldn’t go with the top two through the lane and lost the show position late.

COACH BAHE, who was fifth, lacked speed and was in front of only Excession around the first turn. He remained well back down the backstretch, moved closer while in tandem with Excession three furlongs out, was angled to the four path midway on the turn, was under an aggressive drive in upper stretch but flattened out the final furlong.

Silver Prospector, who was sixth, raced between Basin and Three Technique around the first turn, then eased back between those two heading into the backstretch and was guided to the rail. He raced inside Basin while following Nadal around the far turn, looked to be in position to pounce heading off the bend, but not long after dropped back between Excession and Three Technique and steadily retreated.

American Theorem, who was seventh, bobbled slightly leaving the gate but used his good speed to advance into the first turn and prompt the pace initially from the three path. He moved past No Parole heading into the backstretch and engaged Nadal from the six-furlong pole all the way until midway on the far turn, when he began to weaken. By the time he turned into the stretch he was exhausted from his early efforts and was allowed to coast home.

No Parole, who finished last of eight, broke best and went into the first turn between Nadal and American Theorem. He eased back from between those two six furlongs out, entered the far turn in the three path while just inside Three Technique, but weakened before reaching the quarter pole and quickly retreated.