Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Tampa Bay Derby analysis

Grade 2, $351,500 Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs, March 7, 2020
(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)
Winner: King Guillermo, by Uncle Mo
Trainer: Juan Avila
Jockey: Samy Camacho
Owners: Victoria’s Ranch
Beyer Speed Figure: 99

KING GUILLERMO was 49-1, but won as though he was 4-5. In a performance that was both shocking and dynamic, King Guillermo looked like one of the best 3-year-olds in the country by romping to a lopsided victory while earning a strong Beyer Speed Figure.

He had only raced once previously on dirt, in a sprint, in which he finished sixth of 13. He had made two subsequent starts on turf, winning one in front-running fashion. He had not raced in more than three months, but his trainer does have an excellent ROI with layoffs, per DRF stats. His connections said afterward he won’t race again until Derby Day, meaning he’ll have eight weeks off until then, thus one race between Nov. 30 and Derby Day May 2. Needles, in 1956, had six weeks off prior to the Derby. The only horse to win the Derby with a gap that long since was Animal Kingdom in 2011.

As for this race, King Guillermo was terrific. He started from an outside post but had good speed into the first turn and was two to three paths wide around the first turn, stalking early leader RELENTLESS DANCER, who was racing off the rail. He was sent along beginning three furlongs out, took awhile to get past the leader, but after turning into the lane bounded clear, won as much the best, and continued strong on the gallop-out. It was a freakish performance.

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SOLE VOLANTE, who finished second, lacked early speed per usual and was 11th of 12 around the first turn while hugging the rail. He moved sharply between horses nearing the far turn to commence his rally, was steered to the rail three furlongs out, had to wait in some traffic coming to the quarter pole, then finished strongly on the rail to get second. He never got close to the winner, but this was another sharp effort following his win in the Sam Davis. I like him.

TEXAS SWING, who was third, was sent along from his rail draw to take up a position just behind Relentless Dancer around the first turn. He stayed in that spot down the backstretch and into the far turn, was outrun by King Guillermo and Relentless Dancer nearing the quarter pole, but kept to his task and closed steadily to get the show. Considering this was only his third start and first against winners, it was a good performance.

Relentless Dancer, who was fourth, led into and around the first turn, continued to lead down the backstretch, held his own with the winner around the far turn, but couldn’t keep pace in upper stretch and faded late.

CHANCE IT, who was fifth, normally has sprint-type speed but was not ridden with urgency early and wound up behind a wall of horses around the first turn while in the two path and midpack. With no opportunity to split horses or save ground, he was taken four paths wide on the far turn and made an encouraging rally to the quarter pole, at which point he drifted out slightly. He then went evenly through the lane, but was worn out the final 100 yards. Strange tactics and trip.

MARKET ANALYSIS, who was sixth, was given a tall order, being as this was only his second start following a debut win sprinting. After getting shuffled back leaving the gate, he saved ground around the first turn while midpack and following Todd Pletcher-trained stablemate Texas Swing while inside Chance It. He was urged along aggressively beginning three furlongs out but couldn’t make up any ground at that point, then drifted out a bit through the lane while failing to change leads. He wasn’t in the hunt, but considering what he was asked to do he should be just fine down the line if given a chance to develop.

SPA CITY, who dead-heated for seventh, raced between horses while just behind Relentless Dancer early on the first turn, then checked before reaching the backstretch. He went between rivals early on the backstretch, but had to ease out of there. He was asked to advance three furlongs out, but had no appreciable response even as Chance It moved past him on his outside. He continued to go through the motions the rest of the way.

UNRIGHTEOUS, who also dead-heated for seventh, lacked speed and raced toward the rear of the pack in the three path around the first turn. He moved a bit closer down the backstretch, raced four wide around the far turn, but never made any impact while showing an inclination to lug in through the lane.

LETMENO, who finished ninth, raced in the two to three path while in the second flight of horses around the first turn, was asked with urgency beginning a half-mile out but was flat as a pancake.

BYE BYE MELVIN, who was 10th, broke well, then had King Guillermo cross over in front of him, and wound up about three to four paths wide around the first turn while tracking the leaders. He raced outside Spa City down the backstretch and into the far turn but began to yield midway on the turn and was allowed to coast home after turning into the lane.

TONS OF GOLD, who was 11th, broke to his right from his outside stall, was corrected, but trailed into the first turn while in the two path. He remained well back throughout and went into the far turn in the three path but was always badly outrun.

MO MOSA, who finished last of 12, got shuffled back going into the first turn and then was guided to the rail toward the back half of the field. He came under a ride nearing the far turn but went in reverse. All his prior starts were on synthetic at his home base of Turfway Park, where he never finished out of the money. There’s no place like home.