Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Sam F. Davis analysis

Grade 3, $200,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs, Feb. 8, 2020
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Sole Volante, by Karakontie
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Jockey: Luca Panici
Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone, and Limelight Stables Corp.
Beyer Speed Figure: 96

SOLE VOLANTE thrust himself squarely into the Derby picture with his best performance yet, running down favored INDEPENDENCE HALL while earning the highest Beyer figure of his career to date, which numbers four starts.

With his grass pedigree (by a Breeders’ Cup Mile winner, and out of a Kingmambo mare), it was understandable he began his career on turf. But after two victories on grass, and with the Derby road looming, he was given a chance to prove himself on dirt, and was a sharp, late-running third last month in the Mucho Macho Man, his only race to date around one turn. His two grass races were around two turns, and he moved back around two turns for this race. He clearly thrives going long, and he’s clearly as good if not better on dirt than turf. This is a top prospect.

In this race, Sole Volante was unhurried early and saved ground as a fast pace (23.34 seconds, 46.52) unfolded well in front of him. He began to close quickly on the far turn while initially inside but then switched out midway on the turn and came into the lane in the three path, just outside Independence Hall. The leader fought back gamely, but Sole Volante got the best of Independence Hall nearing the sixteenth pole and pulled clear.

He did benefit from a sharp pace in this race, but there were others who were aided by that pace, like AJAAWEED, who did not close like he did, and I liked how he made an extended run and kept on going. He’s legit.

Independence Hall, who finished second, broke sharpest and led initially, but was wrestled back into the first turn to allow PREMIER STAR and CHAPALU to clear him, after which he was taken outside those two, into an ideal stalking position. Jose Ortiz had a long hold on him, as he still is showing some of that over-aggressiveness displayed in previous races, like the Jerome. He crept closer into the far turn without being asked as the two leaders began to tire from their early battle, took the lead nearing the quarter pole, then was asked for his best as Sole Volante arrived quickly on the scene. He showed plenty of fight to initially stave off Sole Volante, but could not last.

In his favor is that he was close to a hot pace and finished well in front of everyone else. But he’s still too keen for my liking, I thought he was in a perfect spot a half-mile into the race, and I’m not sure anything past nine furlongs is going to benefit him. This was an improvement over what I saw in the Jerome, even though it marked his first defeat, but I remain circumspect as to his Derby prospects.

Ajaaweed, who was third, has no early speed and trailed early while following Sole Volante around the first turn. He saved ground around the far turn, was tipped out entering the lane, but pretty much just passed tired horses while well back throughout; he was beaten nearly 14 lengths. He’s just too one-paced for my liking at this point.

TIZ RYE TIME, who was fourth, tossed his head at the start and was off poorly, then was sixth into the first turn while in the two path. He stayed in that spot most of the race, also merely passed tired rivals, and was outfinished by Ajaaweed for third. He needs softer company for right now.

NO GETTING OVER ME, who was fifth, broke worst of anyone, then knifed between rivals heading into the first turn to be fourth, at the front of the foursome who were well behind the first three. He tried to match strides with Sole Volante on the far turn while outside the eventual winner, drifted to about the three or four path near the quarter pole, started to lose his punch a quarter-mile out, and tired through the lane.

Premier Star, who was sixth, broke well and then moved with Chapalu, outside Independence Hall, into the first turn to vie for the lead. He raced inside Chapula around the turn and down the backstretch, took the lead during the fastest quarter of the race (23.18 second quarter), had no response when Independence Hall moved past him, and readily gave way. This was his first two-turn race after two sprint wins, so I’m sure he’ll return to sprinting.

Chapalu, who finished last of seven, led early outside Premier Star, conceded the lead down the backstretch, then weakened badly beginning three furlongs out and faded. This was his first dirt race after prior tries on turf and synthetic, which yielded a two wins, including in a graded stake, and a second. Fortunately, he has options that don’t include dirt.