TimeformUS Kentucky Derby prep analysis: Looking back to last year’s Hopeful to find Blue Grass winner
The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which is not usual given a field of this size.
David AragonaApr 05, 2018
The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which is not usual given a field of this size.
Expectations will meet reality at Santa Anita on Saturday, when the colts currently adjudged as the top two choices in antepost betting for the Kentucky Derby, Bolt d'Oro and Justify, square off in the Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby, whose result could very well portend who goes off the favorite May 5 at Churchill Downs.
Hawkbill posted a major payday last weekend, winning the Group 1, $6 million Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan. Half-brother Free Drop Billy looks for another major score for the family – and to punch his ticket to the Kentucky Derby – in Saturday's Grade 2, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
It's rare for high-priced auction yearlings to earn their purchase price back on the racetrack. But three of the nine youngsters sold for seven figures at the 2016 Keeneland September yearling sale are chasing that target with solid performances against high-end competition.
Despite offering a $1 million purse and a great opportunity to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, Saturday's Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct drew a modest nine-horse field topped by Enticed, a perfect-trip winner of the Grade 3 Gotham, the Grade 1 winner Firenze Fire, and five horses who would be eligible for a first-level allowance race.
The shipping plans Runaway Ghost, the winner of the Grade 3, $800,000 Sunland Derby who is pointing for the Kentucky Derby, are coming together.
Pepe Tono, who has been 10-1 or higher in four starts and was sixth in his only stakes appearance, was supplemented to Saturday's Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on Wednesday.
There are ebbs and flows to the Kentucky Derby and its prep season every year, but for the past few years, it is California-based runners who have had the most success on the first Saturday in May, and they have more than outpunched their weight when it comes to the Derby preps, too.
Mike Pegram once named a horse after himself – Lookin At Lucky – but you wouldn't know it by checking the man's record in the Santa Anita Derby.
It's a case of something old, something new, as two former members of the Derby Watch top 20 – Gronkowski and Instilled Regard – are back on the list, joined by two newcomers, Hofburg and Restoring Hope.