Showdown for Justify, Bolt d'Oro in Santa Anita Derby

ARCADIA, Calif. – Expectations will meet reality at Santa Anita on Saturday, when the colts currently adjudged as the top two choices in ante-post betting for the Kentucky Derby, Bolt d’Oro and Justify, square off in the Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby. The result could very well determine who goes off the favorite May 5 at Churchill Downs.

There is plenty of contrast between the two. Bolt d’Oro has had the classic preparation for a Derby prospect, with a successful campaign at age 2 that included a pair of Grade 1 wins, a freshening – part planned, part unplanned owing to a muscle pull – and a strong comeback effort last month in the San Felipe Stakes in his 3-year-old debut.

Justify never raced at 2 and did not even make it to the races until three weeks before Bolt d’Oro’s fifth start. Yet the way in which Justify beat maidens in that first start, the effortless nature in which he dispatched an allowance field on March 11, and the quality of his works – not to mention his imposing physical presence – have quickly vaulted him to at or near the top of the charts.

:: Just reduced! Save on The Road to the Kentucky Derby Player's Package

There are five others entered in the race, but the expectation is for this to be a compelling match race, perhaps on the level of Bolt d’Oro’s last race, where he dueled with McKinzie through the stretch of the San Felipe before being put up via disqualification.

Yet these pre-Derby showdowns don’t always play out as hoped. Just two years ago, Nyquist and Mohaymen, at the time the top two contenders for the 2016 Derby, met in the Florida Derby in a battle of unbeatens. Nyquist scored a lopsided victory, and subsequently won the Kentucky Derby, while Mohaymen finished fourth – suffering his first defeat – and never won again.

There is far more on the line for Justify in this race. Bolt d’Oro already has sufficient points to be part of the maximum 20-horse field for the Kentucky Derby by virtue of his San Felipe win, a victory in the FrontRunner, plus a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Justify is making his stakes debut, and this will be his lone shot to earn enough points. In a race worth 100 for first and 40 for second, Justify needs to finish at least second. Then again, if he doesn’t run at least second in this race, he probably doesn’t belong in the Derby anyway.

Those around him, however, believe he belongs. His trainer, Bob Baffert, is going for a record eighth victory in the Santa Anita Derby. He has let others be his public hype men, but he thinks Justify is special. The morning that Justify was to make his debut, Baffert said, “I’ve got big plans for that colt running this afternoon.”

“I don’t want to go to the Kentucky Derby unless he has a legitimate chance,” Baffert said this week. “Running against a horse like Bolt, we’ll know where we stand. We’ll find out how he stacks up against a top 3-year-old.”

Bolt d’Oro is definitely a top 3-year-old. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was his lone loss, and he returned as good as he left. While the validity of the San Felipe DQ may be debatable, what isn’t is that Bolt d’Oro was rock solid off the layoff. He got a Beyer Speed Figure of 101.

“He’s a throwback,” Mick Ruis, who owns and trains Bolt d’Oro, said while watching his horses train this week at Santa Anita. “What he did in the San Felipe was phenomenal. I think he’s five lengths better than his last race.”

Bolt d’Oro drew post 3, Justify post 6.

Jon White, who makes the morning line at Santa Anita, installed Justify as the 4-5 favorite, with Bolt d’Oro at 6-5. Instilled Regard is 5-1, and everyone else is 20-1 or more.

Instilled Regard won the Lecomte at Fair Grounds before finishing fourth in the Risen Star there. Though based in Southern California, this will be his first local start since he was bounced around between McKinzie and Solomini while finishing third on Dec. 9 in the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity. He was moved up to second via the DQ of Solomini.

“If Instilled Regard wins this race, we’ll know we have a real contender for the big race,” said trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who said he believes Instilled Regard was compromised in the Risen Star over a Fair Grounds track on which it was difficult to make up ground.

The Santa Anita Derby is race 9 on a 13-race card that begins at 11:30 a.m. Pacific and includes five other Thoroughbred stakes, most notably the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks for Kentucky Oaks aspirants.

The Santa Anita Derby is the first leg of a late pick four on races 9 through 12 that has a $1 million guarantee. The day’s finale, race 13, is for Arabians.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis