Derby Watch: California horses have been kind of a big deal

ARCADIA, Calif. – There are ebbs and flows to the Kentucky Derby and its prep season every year, but for the past few years, it is California-based runners who have had the most success on the first Saturday in May, and they have more than outpunched their weight when it comes to the Derby preps, too.

That trend has continued this year. Even with the highly regarded McKinzie having been removed from consideration for the Derby, the top two favorites for the Derby – Bolt d’Oro and Justify – are based in California, and, conveniently, they meet on Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby, the West’s major prep for the Kentucky Derby.

In addition, horses who have trained regularly here at Santa Anita this winter have shipped to win four point-scoring races, with Instilled Regard taking the Lecomte, the late Mourinho the Smarty Jones, My Boy Jack the Southwest, and Blended Citizen the Jeff Ruby. That tally could increase on Saturday, as Restoring Hope and Heartfullofstars have gone to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial, and Blended Citizen and Kanthaka are in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. And on April 14, Solomini will be among the starters in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn.

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Strong performances will provide a springboard to Churchill Downs on May 5 for the Derby, which in four of the past six years has been won by a horse who did his major training in California. I’ll Have Another (in 2012) and California Chrome (2014) trained and raced at Santa Anita, where both won the Santa Anita Derby, while American Pharoah (2015) trained at Santa Anita before shipping twice to Oaklawn, and Nyquist (2016) trained and raced at Santa Anita before having his final prep at Gulfstream.

The Preakness, set for May 19 at Pimlico, also has had a strong California influence this decade, with five of the last eight winners – Lookin At Lucky, I’ll Have Another, California Chrome, American Pharoah, and Exaggerator – having done the majority of their training, and more often than not their racing, at Santa Anita.

California usually benefits from mild winters, enabling trainers to stay on a regular schedule with little fear of rain, and that by and large has been the case this year. It definitely benefitted Bolt d’Oro, who had to work through a muscle pull earlier this year and could have ill afforded to sit on the sidelines if an El Niño developed.

“We went slowly, started jogging him on the training track before taking him to the main track, and we still do it,” Mick Ruis, who owns and trains Bolt d’Oro, said while watching his horses train this week at Santa Anita. “He can jog on the training track and then get on a fresh main track to gallop. He’s a big, muscly horse.”

Weather, though, is also a significant advantage in South Florida, so the California success can’t be ascribed to that alone.

The influence of trainer Bob Baffert over the last two decades cannot be overstated. He has won the Derby four times, has the deepest and most talented barn on the circuit, focuses every year on the spring classics, and he regular ships, especially to Oaklawn, where he has won the Rebel six times since 2010 and the Arkansas Derby twice in the last six years.

Doug O’Neill, who has won the Kentucky Derby twice in the last six years, also has seen the benefits of not being parochial. He won the Florida Derby in 2016, the Blue Grass in 2017, and this year the Jeff Ruby.

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Baffert’s influence is also felt in his approach to preparing his runners, for he trains aggressively, his intent to win the Kentucky Derby, not merely to get into the race.

From a statistical standpoint, the California horses are performing well above the expected mean, for on sheer numbers, the Southern California circuit has far fewer horses in training during the winter than South Florida – where runners are trained at Gulfstream, Palm Beach Downs, Palm Meadows, Gulfstream Park West, and Payson Park – let alone when factoring in horses trained at Oaklawn Park, Fair Grounds, and Aqueduct, the other major racing centers before spring dawns at Keeneland.

There may be a regression to the mean in coming years; California-based horses won just one Derby (Giacomo, 2005) from 2003 to 2011. But this year, it again has been best to look West.

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In other Derby developments:

◗ Jockey John Velazquez is facing a decision on his potential mount after riding Audible to victories in the Holy Bull and Florida Derby and Noble Indy to a win in the Louisiana Derby. Both of those colts are trained by Todd Pletcher, whom Velazquez teamed with last year to win the Derby with Always Dreaming.

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