California Chrome has generated excitement, superlatives, and high expectations, and it is hard for many fans to assess his Triple Crown bid dispassionately. But handicappers should not be swayed by sentiment. They are supposed to look at horses and races with cold-eyed objectivity. And an objective analysis would conclude that California Chrome is not the standout that the public thinks he is.
The odds of getting a second chance to win the Triple Crown are long. You can count on one hand the riders who were granted a do-over. Victor Espinoza, who failed in 2002 with War Emblem and has returned for the attempt on California Chrome, knows this and is determined to make his second chance count.
Tom Durkin, the outgoing legend, will call the Belmont Stakes for ontrack and simulcast audiences, while Larry Collmus, the rising star, will call the race for a worldwide television audience on NBC Sports.
One good reason to root for California Chrome to complete a Classic sweep in the Belmont is that he may be the last of his kind, perhaps the final horse given a chance to win the Triple Crown as it is currently constituted.
If California Chrome wins the Belmont Stakes on Saturday to become the 12th winner of the Triple Crown, he will have withstood more heat and more pressure than any American Thoroughbred since Affirmed said “no means no” to Alydar 36 years ago.
California Chrome would seem to have three potential early-pace rivals: Samraat, drawn in post 7, General a Rod, drawn in 10, and Tonalist, drawn in 11.
California Chrome’s challenge in the Belmont Stakes is to run slower than he ever has. In his dozen starts, he never has gone an opening half-mile slower than 47.20. But how long can he, or will he, run more slowly? Will he get bored and start champing at the bit? And if California Chrome submits to a slower tempo, can he, at some point in the second six furlongs, lay down a couple of those 12-second furlongs and blow the race open?
A helpful set of statistics in analyzing which Belmont horses might thrive at 1 1/2 miles are the average progeny winning distances of a horse’s sire and dam. Those numbers can provide a snapshot of a sire’s ability to impart stamina on his progeny or a dam’s capabilities as a producer.
After giving California Chrome his due and selecting him in the Preakness, it’s now time to give history its due and seek out some value in trying to beat the odds-on favorite in the Belmont Stakes.
Immediately after he won the Preakness, I wondered if California Chrome would be able to produce yet another top effort in the Belmont Stakes. California Chrome seemed to have a more demanding race at Pimlico than he did when he won the Kentucky Derby.
