Welsch: Look for value beating the heavy favorite

After giving California Chrome his due and selecting him in the Preakness, it’s now time to give history its due and seek out some value in trying to beat the odds-on favorite in the Belmont Stakes.

TONALIST tipped his hand that he was going to be a force to reckon with in the division this year after rallying from near the rear of the pack over the speed-conducive Gulfstream Park strip to earn high marks while winning his maiden in his 3-year-old debut. He was even more impressive in returning from a layoff of almost three months to dominate the Peter Pan Stakes while showing some surprising speed.

Add two terrific weeks of training over the Belmont strip and a pedigree that suggests that 12 furlongs should not be an issue, and he could have the best chance of preventing yet another attempt at a Triple Crown sweep.

WICKED STRONG took a while to show the promise expected of him at 3, but he is in peak form now, coming off a well-graded triumph in the Wood Memorial and a troubled fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He, too, has trained extremely well over the past several weeks, should handle the added ground, and gives every indication that he’s sitting on another big effort.

::BELMONT STAKES WORKOUTS: Video analysis, news, and times

CALIFORNIA CHROME is the dominant force in the division, and his final Belmont work last Saturday was as good as it gets. But many others before him have shown up for the Belmont looking similarly invincible off their Derby and Preakness victories, only to fail to complete the sweep due to distance limitations, the grind of racing three times in five weeks, or unlucky trips.

In a game where you have to wager with your head, not your heart, at 3-5 or less, it just makes sense to side against a horse trying to accomplish a feat that hasn’t been accomplished in almost four decades.

MEDAL COUNT trained extremely well leading up to the Derby but never got to show his true potential due to a disastrous trip. A son of Dynaformer, he’s certainly bred to get the distance, and from all reports, he continues to train just as well, if not better, for the Belmont.

It’s hard to ignore COMMANDING CURVE off his effort in the Derby and considering how well he’s looked training over the track this past week.