Three early-pace rivals for California Chrome in Belmont Stakes
This year’s Belmont Stakes looks more like a 2012 Belmont than a 2013 Belmont.
The first set of splits is 2012, the second 2013:
23.72, 49.23, 1:14.72, 1:38.85, 2:04.39
23.11, 46.66, 1:10.95, 1:36.47, 2:03.12
Try to believe that it was the 2012 race, despite a one-mile split that was 2.42 seconds slower, that produced the faster final time, 2:30.42, compared with 2:30.70.
These days, the winner is getting to the Belmont finish line in about 2:30, regardless of what happens on the way, and with the relative slowness of this year’s crop in the first two Triple Crown races, it’s hard to see a major change.
It’s also hard to see anything faster than an average pace this year, the 20-year average half-mile in the Belmont being 48.42, the three-quarters 1:13.07.
There’s little doubt who is the quote-unquote fastest horse in the race: That would be the guy going for the Triple Crown, California Chrome. There also is little doubt that jockey Victor Espinoza is going to bed this week murmuring the mantra, “Don’t go too fast too soon. Don’t go too fast too soon.”
California Chrome would seem to have three potential early-pace rivals: Samraat, drawn in post 7, General a Rod, drawn in 10, and Tonalist, drawn in 11. None of them is a confirmed front-runner, and none has been on the early lead in his last three starts. The best guess is that Tonalist, coming out of a fast-pace one-turn race in which he took the lead midway through, leaves running for position and either leads the way or presses California Chrome to his inside.
Medal Count, Matterhorn, Ride On Curlin, and Wicked Strong should be in the next flight, as Ride On Curlin and Wicked Strong were back-of-the-packers in their most recent starts more because of circumstances than natural style. Commanding Curve, Matuszak, and Commissioner should be positioned near the rear.
With the pressing speed on the outside, there could be movement on the backstretch, horses trying to creep into better position, and the tempo should remain solid during the race’s first six furlongs. At least one or two of the stalking pack will start moving up before the far turn – Wicked Strong is the most likely candidate.
If the pace stays as moderate as it looks on paper, California Chrome has a great chance to turn for home with the lead. He will still have another quarter-mile to run. It’s going to get loud.