04/21/2011 4:39PM

2011 Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 21

Keeneland/Coady Photography
Brilliant Speed gets up in the last jump of the Blue Grass under Joel Rosario.


Brilliant Speed and Twinspired, the top two finishers in last week’s Blue Grass Stakes, are two of the four newcomers to this week’s top 20 of Derby Watch. Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, has Brilliant Speed at 25-1 on his Kentucky Derby future line, with Twinspired at 40-1. The other two additions to this week’s list are Master of Hounds, the European colt whose participation was confirmed this week, and Watch Me Go, who has been on and off the list, but is going to the race and, most significantly at this stage, has the requisite graded stakes earnings. Watchmaker has Master of Hounds at 20-1, with Watch Me Go at 60-1. Archarcharch, the Arkansas Derby winner, made a huge move forward. He is now 10-1 after being 60-1 a week ago. Arkansas Derby runner-up Nehro is 8-1 on Watchmaker’s line after being 30-1 last week.


Astrology was removed from the top 20 after being taken off the Derby trail, and Elite Alex was dropped following his poor try in the Arkansas Derby. The other two who were voted off the island are Jaycito and The Factor, since there are concerns about their participation. Jaycito is still battling a problematic foot, while there are distance questions concerning The Factor. Both, however, have enough graded cash to run in the race, and would move back onto the list if it looks like they will make the Derby. Santiva, 25-1 last week, is now 40-1 following the Blue Grass.


Silver Medallion could leapfrog into the top 20 in terms of graded stakes earnings should he win the Lexington Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland, a race in which he will be one of the top choices, if not favored. Anthony’s Cross needs some defections to get into the race, but will have the cash if a few more above him go to the sidelines.

DERBY WATCH: Derby spot the goal for Silver Medallion in Lexington | Top 20 chart and video »