05/07/2011 6:20AM

Kentucky Derby Contenders: Derby Watch Top 20 Horses

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DRF's Derby Watch

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DRF Derby Watch
Updated 5/4/2011
Post Horse / Sire Track Odds Watchmaker Odds Best Beyer Owner, Trainer, and Jockey
8 Dialed In
by Mineshaft
4-1 4-1 97 Robert LaPenta
N. Zito/J. Leparoux
  JP: Zito has adjusted to his colt's needs with a light training schedule, and he has produced.
MW: His closing style fits. But he's a favorite who is not any faster or better than a few others here.
2 Uncle Mo
by Indian Charlie
SCRATCHED
108 Repole Stable
T. Pletcher
  JP: Once was head-and-shoulders above his crop, but recent loss, Derby distance, bring doubts.
MW: Even if he is back to his old self, the Derby distance was always a huge question mark for him.
19 Nehro
by Mineshaft
6-1 6-1 98 Zayat Stables
S. Asmussen/C. Nakatani
  JP: Derby distance is right up his alley. Certainly was flattered by race shape of Arkansas Derby.
MW: He'll get lots of pace to run at again, though; only problem I have is I suspect he'll be an underlay.
1 Archarcharch
by Arch
10-1 10-1 95 Robert & Loval Yagos
W. Fires/J. Court
  JP: Skeptical of him before Ark. Derby, but that race, plus strong works at Churchill, move him way up.
MW: Ark. Derby was his best yet; was between him, Nehro, went with him as his odds will be higher.
9 Derby Kitten
by Kitten's Joy
30-1 30-1 92 Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey
M. Maker/J. Castellano
  JP: Only wins were in a maiden claimer on turf, and a weak Lexington on Polytrack. Hard to endorse.
MW: He has gotten better with every start this year, but his one dirt race last year was really poor.
15 Midnight Interlude
by War Chant
10-1 12-1 97 Arnold Zetcher
B. Baffert/V. Espinoza
  JP: It is very difficult to go from unstarted maiden to Kentucky Derby winner in less than four months.
MW: Won a weakened SA Derby, but on the plus side, it was a breakthrough for him Beyer-wise.
13 Mucho Macho Man
by Macho Uno
12-1 12-1 99 Reeves T'bred Racg, et al
K. Ritvo/R. Maragh
  JP: Would be the late Joe Hirsch's pick. Joe always pulled for "the best story." Ritvo is that.
MW: This colt has heart. He is also one of six in here coming off a six week layoff I think is too long.
8 Master of Hounds
by Kingmambo
30-1 20-1 80t Mrs. John Magnier
A. O'Brien/G. Gomez
  JP: Tough to get a line on him. Never has been on dirt, just one start this year, has been in Ireland.
MW: He's also essentially a second stringer, so if he wins, then this really is a pretty weak group.
7 Pants On Fire
by Jump Start
20-1 30-1 94 George & Lori Hall
K. Breen/A. Napravnik
  JP: Beat Nehro in the La. Derby; Napravnik trying to become the first female rider to win the Derby.
MW: He was fortunate to catch Nehro when he did, because Nehro has improved; will be close to pace.
17 Soldat
by War Front
12-1 20-1 103 Harvey Clarke, et al
K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia
  JP: If it rains, his chances really improve. Won in slop at Gulfstream, glided over mud training Monday.
MW: He controlled pace when he won in slop at GP, he'll have to go too fast to control the pace here.
16 Animal Kingdom
by Leroidesanimaux
30-1 20-1 94 Team Valor International
H. G. Motion/J. Velazquez
  JP: Handled the dirt quite well in an encouraging drill last weekend; worth using in exotics, for sure.
MW: Still has considerable upside, but didn't beat much in the Spiral, and that race was six weeks ago.
2 Brilliant Speed
by Dynaformer
30-1 30-1 93 Live Oak Plantation
T. Albertrani/J. Rosario
  JP: Liked the way he looked on an off track on Monday, but think his best chance is for a minor share.
MW: His fast dirt form, even if early in career, is awful; would need an equalizer like a sloppy track.
6 Comma to the Top
by Bwana Charlie
30-1 30-1 97 Barber, Birnbaum, et al
P. Miller/P. Valenzuela
  JP: Can't envision scenario for success with Shackleford to deal with early, and many others late.
MW: Likeable gelding, but if he couldn't win the SA Derby after controlling pace, how can he win this?
14 Shackleford
by Forestry
12-1 20-1 93 M. Lauffer & W. Cubbedge
D. Romans/J. Castanon
  JP: Florida Derby performance was outstanding; took the heat, nailed late by the Derby favorite.
MW: His effort was good, but outstanding? If anything, the track was speed favoring, time was slow.
12 Santiva
by Giant's Causeway
30-1 30-1 91 Tom Walters
E. Kenneally/S. Bridgmohan
  JP: Owns an important win over this track last fall; didn't have a clean run in final Derby prep race.
MW: Despite his stakes win over the track, he doesn't have even one race that says he can win this.
4 Stay Thirsty
by Bernardini
20-1 30-1 89 Repole Stable
T. Pletcher/R. Dominguez
  JP: Ran dreadfully in Florida Derby, and was crushed by stablemate Uncle Mo here in Breeders' Cup.
MW: What Jay says is true, but his Gotham two back was solid; rebound chance for a piece at a price.
17 Twinspired
by Harlan's Holiday
30-1 30-1 93 Alpha St., Skychai Racg, et al
M. Maker/M. Smith
  JP: Tough loss in Blue Grass, but dirt form is suspect; at the least, he will be a hunch bet for many.
MW: All of which means that there is a good chance his odds will be far below his actual chance to win.
5 Decisive Moment
by With Distinction
30-1 50-1 91 Just for Fun Stable
J. Arias/K. Clark
  JP: There is a lot of clutter in this Derby field. Hard to envision him even getting a piece of this.
MW: Really in this because of a race at Delta in November, synthetic race in March; doesn't seem right.
3 Twice the Appeal
by Successful Appeal
20-1 30-1 89 Brown, Flores, & Hernandez
J. Bonde/C. Borel
  JP: Will get a second look, and be a far lower price than he should be, because of CD whiz Calvin.
MW: Should be 100-1, I wanted to make him 50-1, but it appears he will be lower, and that is crazy.
20 Watch Me Go
by West Acre
50-1 50-1 84 Gilbert Campbell
K. O'Connell/R. Bejarano
  JP: With the exception of the Tampa Bay Derby, his form isn't much. Looks like he is a cut below.
MW: Jay's being diplomatic. We've had some inscrutable Derby results lately, but this would top 'em all.

(t) top beyer came on turf     (RPR) Racing Post Rating