Kentucky Derby Contenders: Derby Watch Top 20 Horses

DRF Staff|May 07, 2011

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Updated 5/4/2011
Post	Horse / Sire	Track Odds	Watchmaker Odds	Best Beyer	Owner, Trainer, and Jockey
8	Dialed In by Mineshaft	4-1	4-1	97	Robert LaPenta N. Zito/J. Leparoux
	JP: Zito has adjusted to his colt's needs with a light training schedule, and he has produced. MW: His closing style fits. But he's a favorite who is not any faster or better than a few others here.
2	Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie	SCRATCHED		108	Repole Stable T. Pletcher
	JP: Once was head-and-shoulders above his crop, but recent loss, Derby distance, bring doubts. MW: Even if he is back to his old self, the Derby distance was always a huge question mark for him.
19	Nehro by Mineshaft	6-1	6-1	98	Zayat Stables S. Asmussen/C. Nakatani
	JP: Derby distance is right up his alley. Certainly was flattered by race shape of Arkansas Derby. MW: He'll get lots of pace to run at again, though; only problem I have is I suspect he'll be an underlay.
1	Archarcharch by Arch	10-1	10-1	95	Robert & Loval Yagos W. Fires/J. Court
	JP: Skeptical of him before Ark. Derby, but that race, plus strong works at Churchill, move him way up. MW: Ark. Derby was his best yet; was between him, Nehro, went with him as his odds will be higher.
9	Derby Kitten by Kitten's Joy	30-1	30-1	92	Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey M. Maker/J. Castellano
	JP: Only wins were in a maiden claimer on turf, and a weak Lexington on Polytrack. Hard to endorse. MW: He has gotten better with every start this year, but his one dirt race last year was really poor.
15	Midnight Interlude by War Chant	10-1	12-1	97	Arnold Zetcher B. Baffert/V. Espinoza
	JP: It is very difficult to go from unstarted maiden to Kentucky Derby winner in less than four months. MW: Won a weakened SA Derby, but on the plus side, it was a breakthrough for him Beyer-wise.
13	Mucho Macho Man by Macho Uno	12-1	12-1	99	Reeves T'bred Racg, et al K. Ritvo/R. Maragh
	JP: Would be the late Joe Hirsch's pick. Joe always pulled for "the best story." Ritvo is that. MW: This colt has heart. He is also one of six in here coming off a six week layoff I think is too long.
8	Master of Hounds by Kingmambo	30-1	20-1	80t	Mrs. John Magnier A. O'Brien/G. Gomez
	JP: Tough to get a line on him. Never has been on dirt, just one start this year, has been in Ireland. MW: He's also essentially a second stringer, so if he wins, then this really is a pretty weak group.
7	Pants On Fire by Jump Start	20-1	30-1	94	George & Lori Hall K. Breen/A. Napravnik
	JP: Beat Nehro in the La. Derby; Napravnik trying to become the first female rider to win the Derby. MW: He was fortunate to catch Nehro when he did, because Nehro has improved; will be close to pace.
17	Soldat by War Front	12-1	20-1	103	Harvey Clarke, et al K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia
	JP: If it rains, his chances really improve. Won in slop at Gulfstream, glided over mud training Monday. MW: He controlled pace when he won in slop at GP, he'll have to go too fast to control the pace here.
16	Animal Kingdom by Leroidesanimaux	30-1	20-1	94	Team Valor International H. G. Motion/J. Velazquez
	JP: Handled the dirt quite well in an encouraging drill last weekend; worth using in exotics, for sure. MW: Still has considerable upside, but didn't beat much in the Spiral, and that race was six weeks ago.
2	Brilliant Speed by Dynaformer	30-1	30-1	93	Live Oak Plantation T. Albertrani/J. Rosario
	JP: Liked the way he looked on an off track on Monday, but think his best chance is for a minor share. MW: His fast dirt form, even if early in career, is awful; would need an equalizer like a sloppy track.
6	Comma to the Top by Bwana Charlie	30-1	30-1	97	Barber, Birnbaum, et al P. Miller/P. Valenzuela
	JP: Can't envision scenario for success with Shackleford to deal with early, and many others late. MW: Likeable gelding, but if he couldn't win the SA Derby after controlling pace, how can he win this?
14	Shackleford by Forestry	12-1	20-1	93	M. Lauffer & W. Cubbedge D. Romans/J. Castanon
	JP: Florida Derby performance was outstanding; took the heat, nailed late by the Derby favorite. MW: His effort was good, but outstanding? If anything, the track was speed favoring, time was slow.
12	Santiva by Giant's Causeway	30-1	30-1	91	Tom Walters E. Kenneally/S. Bridgmohan
	JP: Owns an important win over this track last fall; didn't have a clean run in final Derby prep race. MW: Despite his stakes win over the track, he doesn't have even one race that says he can win this.
4	Stay Thirsty by Bernardini	20-1	30-1	89	Repole Stable T. Pletcher/R. Dominguez
	JP: Ran dreadfully in Florida Derby, and was crushed by stablemate Uncle Mo here in Breeders' Cup. MW: What Jay says is true, but his Gotham two back was solid; rebound chance for a piece at a price.
17	Twinspired by Harlan's Holiday	30-1	30-1	93	Alpha St., Skychai Racg, et al M. Maker/M. Smith
	JP: Tough loss in Blue Grass, but dirt form is suspect; at the least, he will be a hunch bet for many. MW: All of which means that there is a good chance his odds will be far below his actual chance to win.
5	Decisive Moment by With Distinction	30-1	50-1	91	Just for Fun Stable J. Arias/K. Clark
	JP: There is a lot of clutter in this Derby field. Hard to envision him even getting a piece of this. MW: Really in this because of a race at Delta in November, synthetic race in March; doesn't seem right.
3	Twice the Appeal by Successful Appeal	20-1	30-1	89	Brown, Flores, & Hernandez J. Bonde/C. Borel
	JP: Will get a second look, and be a far lower price than he should be, because of CD whiz Calvin. MW: Should be 100-1, I wanted to make him 50-1, but it appears he will be lower, and that is crazy.
20	Watch Me Go by West Acre	50-1	50-1	84	Gilbert Campbell K. O'Connell/R. Bejarano
	JP: With the exception of the Tampa Bay Derby, his form isn't much. Looks like he is a cut below. MW: Jay's being diplomatic. We've had some inscrutable Derby results lately, but this would top 'em all.

(t) top beyer came on turf (RPR) Racing Post Rating

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Updated 5/4/2011
Post	Horse / Sire	Track Odds	Watchmaker Odds	Best Beyer	Owner, Trainer, and Jockey
8	Dialed In by Mineshaft	4-1	4-1	97	Robert LaPenta N. Zito/J. Leparoux
	JP: Zito has adjusted to his colt's needs with a light training schedule, and he has produced. MW: His closing style fits. But he's a favorite who is not any faster or better than a few others here.
2	Uncle Mo by Indian Charlie	SCRATCHED	108	Repole Stable T. Pletcher
	JP: Once was head-and-shoulders above his crop, but recent loss, Derby distance, bring doubts. MW: Even if he is back to his old self, the Derby distance was always a huge question mark for him.
19	Nehro by Mineshaft	6-1	6-1	98	Zayat Stables S. Asmussen/C. Nakatani
	JP: Derby distance is right up his alley. Certainly was flattered by race shape of Arkansas Derby. MW: He'll get lots of pace to run at again, though; only problem I have is I suspect he'll be an underlay.
1	Archarcharch by Arch	10-1	10-1	95	Robert & Loval Yagos W. Fires/J. Court
	JP: Skeptical of him before Ark. Derby, but that race, plus strong works at Churchill, move him way up. MW: Ark. Derby was his best yet; was between him, Nehro, went with him as his odds will be higher.
9	Derby Kitten by Kitten's Joy	30-1	30-1	92	Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey M. Maker/J. Castellano
	JP: Only wins were in a maiden claimer on turf, and a weak Lexington on Polytrack. Hard to endorse. MW: He has gotten better with every start this year, but his one dirt race last year was really poor.
15	Midnight Interlude by War Chant	10-1	12-1	97	Arnold Zetcher B. Baffert/V. Espinoza
	JP: It is very difficult to go from unstarted maiden to Kentucky Derby winner in less than four months. MW: Won a weakened SA Derby, but on the plus side, it was a breakthrough for him Beyer-wise.
13	Mucho Macho Man by Macho Uno	12-1	12-1	99	Reeves T'bred Racg, et al K. Ritvo/R. Maragh
	JP: Would be the late Joe Hirsch's pick. Joe always pulled for "the best story." Ritvo is that. MW: This colt has heart. He is also one of six in here coming off a six week layoff I think is too long.
8	Master of Hounds by Kingmambo	30-1	20-1	80t	Mrs. John Magnier A. O'Brien/G. Gomez
	JP: Tough to get a line on him. Never has been on dirt, just one start this year, has been in Ireland. MW: He's also essentially a second stringer, so if he wins, then this really is a pretty weak group.
7	Pants On Fire by Jump Start	20-1	30-1	94	George & Lori Hall K. Breen/A. Napravnik
	JP: Beat Nehro in the La. Derby; Napravnik trying to become the first female rider to win the Derby. MW: He was fortunate to catch Nehro when he did, because Nehro has improved; will be close to pace.
17	Soldat by War Front	12-1	20-1	103	Harvey Clarke, et al K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia
	JP: If it rains, his chances really improve. Won in slop at Gulfstream, glided over mud training Monday. MW: He controlled pace when he won in slop at GP, he'll have to go too fast to control the pace here.
16	Animal Kingdom by Leroidesanimaux	30-1	20-1	94	Team Valor International H. G. Motion/J. Velazquez
	JP: Handled the dirt quite well in an encouraging drill last weekend; worth using in exotics, for sure. MW: Still has considerable upside, but didn't beat much in the Spiral, and that race was six weeks ago.
2	Brilliant Speed by Dynaformer	30-1	30-1	93	Live Oak Plantation T. Albertrani/J. Rosario
	JP: Liked the way he looked on an off track on Monday, but think his best chance is for a minor share. MW: His fast dirt form, even if early in career, is awful; would need an equalizer like a sloppy track.
6	Comma to the Top by Bwana Charlie	30-1	30-1	97	Barber, Birnbaum, et al P. Miller/P. Valenzuela
	JP: Can't envision scenario for success with Shackleford to deal with early, and many others late. MW: Likeable gelding, but if he couldn't win the SA Derby after controlling pace, how can he win this?
14	Shackleford by Forestry	12-1	20-1	93	M. Lauffer & W. Cubbedge D. Romans/J. Castanon
	JP: Florida Derby performance was outstanding; took the heat, nailed late by the Derby favorite. MW: His effort was good, but outstanding? If anything, the track was speed favoring, time was slow.
12	Santiva by Giant's Causeway	30-1	30-1	91	Tom Walters E. Kenneally/S. Bridgmohan
	JP: Owns an important win over this track last fall; didn't have a clean run in final Derby prep race. MW: Despite his stakes win over the track, he doesn't have even one race that says he can win this.
4	Stay Thirsty by Bernardini	20-1	30-1	89	Repole Stable T. Pletcher/R. Dominguez
	JP: Ran dreadfully in Florida Derby, and was crushed by stablemate Uncle Mo here in Breeders' Cup. MW: What Jay says is true, but his Gotham two back was solid; rebound chance for a piece at a price.
17	Twinspired by Harlan's Holiday	30-1	30-1	93	Alpha St., Skychai Racg, et al M. Maker/M. Smith
	JP: Tough loss in Blue Grass, but dirt form is suspect; at the least, he will be a hunch bet for many. MW: All of which means that there is a good chance his odds will be far below his actual chance to win.
5	Decisive Moment by With Distinction	30-1	50-1	91	Just for Fun Stable J. Arias/K. Clark
	JP: There is a lot of clutter in this Derby field. Hard to envision him even getting a piece of this. MW: Really in this because of a race at Delta in November, synthetic race in March; doesn't seem right.
3	Twice the Appeal by Successful Appeal	20-1	30-1	89	Brown, Flores, & Hernandez J. Bonde/C. Borel
	JP: Will get a second look, and be a far lower price than he should be, because of CD whiz Calvin. MW: Should be 100-1, I wanted to make him 50-1, but it appears he will be lower, and that is crazy.
20	Watch Me Go by West Acre	50-1	50-1	84	Gilbert Campbell K. O'Connell/R. Bejarano
	JP: With the exception of the Tampa Bay Derby, his form isn't much. Looks like he is a cut below. MW: Jay's being diplomatic. We've had some inscrutable Derby results lately, but this would top 'em all.

Updated 5/4/2011

Post

Horse / Sire

Track Odds

Watchmaker Odds

Best Beyer

Owner, Trainer, and Jockey

Dialed In
by Mineshaft

4-1

Robert LaPenta
N. Zito/J. Leparoux

JP: Zito has adjusted to his colt's needs with a light training schedule, and he has produced.
MW: His closing style fits. But he's a favorite who is not any faster or better than a few others here.

Uncle Mo
by Indian Charlie

SCRATCHED

108

Repole Stable
T. Pletcher

JP: Once was head-and-shoulders above his crop, but recent loss, Derby distance, bring doubts.
MW: Even if he is back to his old self, the Derby distance was always a huge question mark for him.

Nehro
by Mineshaft

6-1

Zayat Stables
S. Asmussen/C. Nakatani

JP: Derby distance is right up his alley. Certainly was flattered by race shape of Arkansas Derby.
MW: He'll get lots of pace to run at again, though; only problem I have is I suspect he'll be an underlay.

Archarcharch
by Arch

10-1

Robert & Loval Yagos
W. Fires/J. Court

JP: Skeptical of him before Ark. Derby, but that race, plus strong works at Churchill, move him way up.
MW: Ark. Derby was his best yet; was between him, Nehro, went with him as his odds will be higher.

Derby Kitten
by Kitten's Joy

30-1

Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey
M. Maker/J. Castellano

JP: Only wins were in a maiden claimer on turf, and a weak Lexington on Polytrack. Hard to endorse.
MW: He has gotten better with every start this year, but his one dirt race last year was really poor.

Midnight Interlude
by War Chant

10-1

12-1

Arnold Zetcher
B. Baffert/V. Espinoza

JP: It is very difficult to go from unstarted maiden to Kentucky Derby winner in less than four months.
MW: Won a weakened SA Derby, but on the plus side, it was a breakthrough for him Beyer-wise.

Mucho Macho Man
by Macho Uno

12-1

Reeves T'bred Racg, et al
K. Ritvo/R. Maragh

JP: Would be the late Joe Hirsch's pick. Joe always pulled for "the best story." Ritvo is that.
MW: This colt has heart. He is also one of six in here coming off a six week layoff I think is too long.

Master of Hounds
by Kingmambo

30-1

20-1

80t

Mrs. John Magnier
A. O'Brien/G. Gomez

JP: Tough to get a line on him. Never has been on dirt, just one start this year, has been in Ireland.
MW: He's also essentially a second stringer, so if he wins, then this really is a pretty weak group.

Pants On Fire
by Jump Start

20-1

30-1

George & Lori Hall
K. Breen/A. Napravnik

JP: Beat Nehro in the La. Derby; Napravnik trying to become the first female rider to win the Derby.
MW: He was fortunate to catch Nehro when he did, because Nehro has improved; will be close to pace.

Soldat
by War Front

12-1

20-1

103

Harvey Clarke, et al
K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia

JP: If it rains, his chances really improve. Won in slop at Gulfstream, glided over mud training Monday.
MW: He controlled pace when he won in slop at GP, he'll have to go too fast to control the pace here.

Animal Kingdom
by Leroidesanimaux

30-1

20-1

Team Valor International
H. G. Motion/J. Velazquez

JP: Handled the dirt quite well in an encouraging drill last weekend; worth using in exotics, for sure.
MW: Still has considerable upside, but didn't beat much in the Spiral, and that race was six weeks ago.

Brilliant Speed
by Dynaformer

30-1

Live Oak Plantation
T. Albertrani/J. Rosario

JP: Liked the way he looked on an off track on Monday, but think his best chance is for a minor share.
MW: His fast dirt form, even if early in career, is awful; would need an equalizer like a sloppy track.

Comma to the Top
by Bwana Charlie

30-1

Barber, Birnbaum, et al
P. Miller/P. Valenzuela

JP: Can't envision scenario for success with Shackleford to deal with early, and many others late.
MW: Likeable gelding, but if he couldn't win the SA Derby after controlling pace, how can he win this?

Shackleford
by Forestry

12-1

20-1

M. Lauffer & W. Cubbedge
D. Romans/J. Castanon

JP: Florida Derby performance was outstanding; took the heat, nailed late by the Derby favorite.
MW: His effort was good, but outstanding? If anything, the track was speed favoring, time was slow.

Santiva
by Giant's Causeway

30-1

Tom Walters
E. Kenneally/S. Bridgmohan

JP: Owns an important win over this track last fall; didn't have a clean run in final Derby prep race.
MW: Despite his stakes win over the track, he doesn't have even one race that says he can win this.

Stay Thirsty
by Bernardini

20-1

30-1

Repole Stable
T. Pletcher/R. Dominguez

JP: Ran dreadfully in Florida Derby, and was crushed by stablemate Uncle Mo here in Breeders' Cup.
MW: What Jay says is true, but his Gotham two back was solid; rebound chance for a piece at a price.

Twinspired
by Harlan's Holiday

30-1

Alpha St., Skychai Racg, et al
M. Maker/M. Smith

JP: Tough loss in Blue Grass, but dirt form is suspect; at the least, he will be a hunch bet for many.
MW: All of which means that there is a good chance his odds will be far below his actual chance to win.

Decisive Moment
by With Distinction

30-1

50-1

Just for Fun Stable
J. Arias/K. Clark

JP: There is a lot of clutter in this Derby field. Hard to envision him even getting a piece of this.
MW: Really in this because of a race at Delta in November, synthetic race in March; doesn't seem right.

Twice the Appeal
by Successful Appeal

20-1

30-1

Brown, Flores, & Hernandez
J. Bonde/C. Borel

JP: Will get a second look, and be a far lower price than he should be, because of CD whiz Calvin.
MW: Should be 100-1, I wanted to make him 50-1, but it appears he will be lower, and that is crazy.

Watch Me Go
by West Acre

50-1

Gilbert Campbell
K. O'Connell/R. Bejarano

JP: With the exception of the Tampa Bay Derby, his form isn't much. Looks like he is a cut below.
MW: Jay's being diplomatic. We've had some inscrutable Derby results lately, but this would top 'em all.