04/20/2011 2:22PM

Twinspired

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Date Track Race Finish Chart Distance Time BSF Video
4/16/11 KEE Blue Grass 2nd 1 1/8 mile 1:50.80 93 Video
3/26/11 TP Spiral 3rd 1 1/8 Mile 1:52.20 83 Video

Twinspired

Owner: Alpha Stables, Skychai Racing LLC and Sand Dollar Stable LLC
Trainer: Michael Maker
Record: 8-2-1-1
Best Beyer: 93
Breeder: John Jain, Lawrence Opas & Frank Sinatra
Tomlinson Distance Rating: 248

Auction: $55,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2009); $140,000 juvenile (Fasig-Tipton Spring, May 2010)
Dosage Profile: 2-1-9-2-0 (14)
Dosage Index: 1.15
Center of Distribution: 0.21

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PROFILE

By Brad Free

Strengths
Few runners in the Kentucky Derby will be as seasoned as Grade 1-placed Twinspired, whose eight starts – seven on synthetic or turf – include six route races. Twinspired has a tremendous foundation of racing. He won twice; his most recent start April 16 was his best. As the distances have increased, Twinspired has improved. Furthermore, his runner-up finish in the Blue Grass was outstanding considering he raced against the shape of the race. Twinspired pressed the pace from third, opened up in the lane, and then missed by a nose. He was the only forwardly placed runner stick around in a race that saw the 1-3-4-5 finishers rally from 12-9-8-11 positions. The Blue Grass was on Polytrack.

Weaknesses
The knocks on Twinspired are surface and class. He finished eighth his only start on dirt, the surface over which top 3-year-olds always compete in winter and spring. Perhaps one reason Twinspired has been faring well is because he has faced second-tier opposition.
Twinspired was sired by Harlan’s Holiday, who can get a decent dirt runner (Denis of Cork). However, the best offspring by Harlan’s Holiday have been synthetic specialists (Mendip, Into Mischief) and sprinters (Majesticperfection, Riley Tucker). With just $197,500 in graded earnings, Twinspired is on the bubble to make it into the Derby field.

Betting Value
Twinspired faces two key questions – is he good enough, and can he run on dirt? The ability query is moot because it applies to most in a dodgy Derby field, including many at lower odds than Twinspired. Surface is a mystery. If it turns out that Twinspired can run on dirt, then he will have a square chance to win an inscrutable race. Twinspired is a live longshot, and an attractive gamble at 15-1 or higher.


PEDIGREE ANALYSIS

By Dan Illman

Sire:
Harlan's Holiday won the Grade 1 Florida Derby and the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, both at nine furlongs, before finishing seventh in the 2002 Kentucky Derby. At four, he won the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at 1 1/8 miles and finished second in the Dubai World Cup at 1 1/4 miles. Harlan's Holiday scored in races ranging in distance from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles and earned nine triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures (113 top in the Donn).
He has proven to be a versatile stallion, siring Grade 1-winning juvenile Into Mischief (1 1/16 miles), the fleet sprinter Majesticperfection, and Denis of Cork (3rd in the Kentucky Derby).

Dam:
The unplaced dam is a half-sister to Decora, a stakes-placed miler. This is the female family of Grade 1 route winner Score Twenty Four.

Outlook:
Although Twinspired faltered in the final furlong of the Grade 1 Blue Grass, his pedigree indicates that he should stay at least 1 1/8 miles with a possibility of lasting the Derby distance. The switch to dirt is a big question mark as his best races have come on synthetic tracks.


THE WIZARD'S PACE ANALYSIS:

The slow pace in the Blue Grass enabled this colt to stay very close early. He had previously been a one run closer who would settle off the pace in the early stages. Circumstances will almost certainly dictate a return to that style.