A few weeks ago, I explained that Shared Belief’s unusually low 107 Beyer Speed Figure in the San Antonio Stakes was probably because he was running behind such a slow pace. That should be less of an issue in the Santa Anita Handicap, with confirmed front-runner Moreno and sprinter Crimson Giant in the field.

If Shared Belief does get a reasonable pace up top, I would expect a dream trip, a Beyer north of 110, a runaway win, and even more questions about what would have happened if the horse had not had all those issues at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

“Big” only begins to describe the racing Saturday. We have Shared Belief, the best horse in America, going in the Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Handicap. We have four significant Kentucky Derby preps – the Grade 2, $400,000 San Felipe at Santa Anita; the Grade 2, $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby; the rescheduled Grade 2, $200,000 Swale at Gulfstream; and the Grade 3, $400,000 Gotham at Aqueduct.

San Carlos Stakes

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8^th Race

The late pick four at Santa Anita kicks off with the China Doll for 3-year-old fillies going a mile on turf. It’s a competitive race, and with numerous fillies shifting distances or surfaces, it seems best to go deep. In order of preference, let’s use four fillies: SHE’S A BIG WINNER (2), BOBBI GRACE (8), CURLIN’S FOX (5), and SPIRIT OF XIAN (7).

Hopefully one of the better prices in the first legs proves victorious, setting up the potential for a decent payoff.

TEXAS AIR

Trainer: Allen Milligan    

Last Race: March 1, 8^th

Finish: 4^th by six lengths  

Beyer: 82

He was cutting back from 1 1/16 miles to six furlongs for a stakes-quality allowance The Big Beast won in his first out since taking last year’s Grade 1 King’s Bishop at Saratoga. Texas Air ran his race and would be an interesting prospect for a stakes like the $50,000 Premiere for Texas-breds at 6 1/2 furlongs at Lone Star Park on April 9.

Download DRF Plus handicapping reports for Thursday's races, including DRF Daily GamePlan, the Positive ROI Report, and Key Race Report.

DRF Daily GamePlan

Download positive ROI trainer statistics for Wednesday's cards at Charles Town, Delta Downs, Mountaineer, Mahoning Valley, Penn National, Tampa Bay Downs, and Turf Paradise. The report features top trainer angles, top trainer/jockey combinations, and profitable betting angles based on a trainer's record in similar situations.

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Download a list of horses exiting races where two or more of the competitors have come back to win their next starts. Wednesday's report features races from Charles Town, Delta Downs, Mountaineer, Mahoning Valley, Penn National, Tampa Bay Downs, and Turf Paradise.

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Download DRF Plus handicapping reports for Wednesday's races, including DRF Daily GamePlan, the Positive ROI Report, and Key Race Report.

DRF Daily GamePlan

Spot plays and live longshots for Charles Town, Delta Downs, Mahoning Valley, and Tampa Bay Downs. Picks are chronologically listed, so you can build and plan your wagering day.

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Positive ROI Report

Download positive ROI trainer statistics for Tuesday’s cards at Sam Houston, Mountaineer, Mahoning Valley, Parx Racing, and Turf Paradise. The report features top trainer angles, top trainer/jockey combinations, and profitable betting angles based on a trainer's record in similar situations.

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