Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: Southwest Stakes analysis
Grade 3, $750,000 Southwest Stakes; 1 1/16 miles; Oaklawn Park; Jan. 29, 2022
(0 Derby qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Newgrange, by Violence
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Golconda Stable, Siena Farm, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan, and Jay Schoenfarber
Beyer Speed Figure: 89
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NEWGRANGE, exiting a made-to-order race in the Sham, did not have things his own way this time, yet continued his excellent form to remain unbeaten after three starts. He had to ship for this race, was caught wide throughout, yet still powered home to prove best, with locally based horses exiting the Smarty Jones – who had the home-field advantage – claiming the next four spots.
Because he is trained by Baffert, who is barred by Churchill Downs from the 2022 Derby, Newgrange – as in the Sham -- did not earn any points towards a berth in the Derby. This is something his ownership group can likely afford at this stage, when first place is worth just 10 points. But as the preps progress toward races worth 50 points and eventually 100 points to the winner, if there is no change to Baffert’s status Newgrange will have to be moved to another barn to be able to both earn points and subsequently run in the Derby. No points are retroactively awarded.
In this race, Newgrange showed good speed leaving the gate to set up shop in the three path around the first turn, just outside leaders KAVOD and CLASSIC MOMENT. He was outrun a bit heading to the far turn and initially was four paths wide on that turn, advanced on the turn to close on the leaders while able to drop down to the three path, then responded to Velazquez’s left-handed whip through the lane to come home best.
The runners in this race had a headwind through the homestretch, and a tailwind down the backstretch.
BARBER ROAD, who finished second, broke half a step slowly and then was shuffled toward the rear of the field into the first turn; he was four paths wide, in front of one horse, a furlong into the race. He made an elongated run down the backstretch while wide to get closer, but was caught five to six paths wide early on the far turn. He continued to make steady progress on the turn, came into the stretch in the four path, and gamely kept to his task all the way to the wire, quite a feat considering how early he has asked to start advancing. This was a significant improvement over his runner-up finish in the Smarty Jones. He’s headed in the right direction.
BEN DIESEL, who was third, broke well but then drafted behind the early leaders while saving ground from his rail draw. He moved closer heading to the far turn while on the rail and three furlongs from the wire was the innermost of a four-horse spread, even with Newgrange. He had to wait momentarily for room just before heading into the lane, but got a dream run inside coming off the bend. He drifted out a bit under left-handed whipping at midstretch and bumped Kavod, was corrected, but was outrun to the wire by the top two. If he couldn’t beat the top two with this trip this day, he’s up against it.
Kavod, who was fourth, had the best speed leaving the gate and led narrowly from Classic Moment around the first turn while hugging the rail. He was a bit headstrong after turning up the backside, rolled along and gained separation from Classic Moment heading to the far turn, fended off renewed pressure from Classic Moment on the turn, led to midstretch, and was beginning to weaken when bumped by Ben Diesel. Not a bad performance, but he just can’t stay the trip.
DASH ATTACK, who was fifth, was mid-pack while in the two path and between rivals around the first turn, then advanced between rivals heading to the far turn and entered the far turn in the three path, just inside Newgrange. He was outrun at a critical point midway on the turn, came off the bend just inside of Barber Road, and just went evenly through the lane. This was a step back from his win in the Smarty Jones. His first two races, both wins, came on off tracks, so it’s fair to wonder if he needs slop to beat horses of this quality.
Classic Moment, who was sixth, had good speed leaving the gate and went into the first turn battling for the lead with Kavod. He couldn’t stay with Kavod heading to the far turn and had to be ridden along beginning a half-mile out, was ridden aggressively to try and close the gap on Kavod on the far turn, couldn’t quite get on terms with Kavod coming off the bend, then steadily tired.
CALL ME JAMAL, who finished seventh, was mid-pack while four paths wide heading into the first turn, then dropped farther back during the run around that turn. He advanced heading to the far turn while wide and just inside Barber Road, was outrun and squeezed back midway on that turn, followed Barber Road into the stretch, then went evenly through the lane while never threatening. He was forwardly placed in his three prior starts, and the quicker pace and wide trip here proved insurmountable. He’s probably a cut below this bunch, but might be very sneaky if sent to a softer spot (Sunland?) next time.
OSBOURNE, who was eighth, settled into a good spot around the first turn, in the clear in fourth, about two to three paths wide, behind the early leaders. He moved closer heading to the far turn to be in the two path, just outside Ben Diesel. He began to weaken before reaching the top of the lane, and then emptied out the final sixteenth.
COSTA TERRA, who was ninth, lacked early speed and went into the first turn toward the rear of the pack while saving ground. He dropped back early on the backstretch, failed to keep pace with other advancing backmarkers heading to the far turn, made a mild run on the far turn, was floated about four to five paths wide coming off the bend, but had little to offer through the stretch.
VIVAR, who was 10th, lacked early speed and trailed into the first turn while being guided closer to the rail after starting from the outside post. He remained well back to the far turn, hugged the rail on the turn, came under an aggressive ride, but had zero spark at any point.
IGNITIS, who was 11th, raced toward the rear of the pack while three to four paths wide around the first turn, was sent along early on the far turn and made some progress while inside, but lost his punch before reaching the top of the lane and faltered through the stretch.
DON’TCROSSTHEDEVIL, who finished last of 12, was three paths wide around the first turn while mid-pack, was engulfed heading to the far turn without showing any inclination to fight back, then continued to fade in a dreadful effort.