Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: Sham Stakes analysis
Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes, Santa Anita, Jan. 1, 2022
(0 Derby qualifying points for first, 0 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Newgrange, by Violence
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
Owner: Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables, SF Racing, Siena Farm, Starlight Racing, Stonestreet Stables, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan, Robert Masterson, and Jay Schoenfarber
Beyer Speed Figure: 88
NEWGRANGE, a winner of his lone prior start sprinting, successfully stretched out around two turns when facing both winners and making his stakes debut, but this race could not have played out better for him, so not much was learned as to his quality. The Beyer figure is solid, but was earned under optimal conditions.
There were only two horses in this race with speed. They have the same ownership group, and are trained by Bob Baffert. The race may have been won at the draw. Newgrange drew inside of stablemate ROCKEFELLER. That, combined with the fact he was exiting a sprint and had a half-mile split in his lone race that was faster than anything Rockefeller had done in his three prior starts, made Newgrange the obvious horse of the two to hit the top. He did, the pace was a crawl, and the stablemates ran one-two the entire mile. The late runners never had a chance the way the race played out.
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Baffert is currently barred by Churchill Downs from the 2022 Derby, and Churchill’s rules for the Derby state that a horse who races for a barred trainer cannot earn points in these preps. So, the 10 points that would have gone to Newgrange, and the 4 for Rockefeller, went unawarded here. Unless something changes, owners of any Baffert horse with Derby dreams will have to move that horse to another trainer in order for that horse to then start earning points. The rules state no points are retroactively credited.
In this race, Newgrange broke sharply, along with his stablemate, and then he moved to the fore while under a snug hold around the first turn. He continued to lead in similar fashion down the backstretch, was let out a notch three furlongs out to get separation from Rockefeller, then drew away smartly through the lane while needing only one backhanded reminder from Velazquez. He was supposed to win, the way the race was run, and he did.
Rockefeller, who finished second, broke alertly and then set up shop just to the outside of his pacesetting stablemate. As with Newgrange, he was under a firm hold to set a half-mile split just shy of 49 seconds. He was at Newgrange’s hip down the backstretch and to the far turn, had to be ridden along three furlongs out in an attempt to keep up, could not stay with Newgrange through the lane, and barely held the place over OVIATT CLASS. I think the barn tipped its hand as to what it thinks of this colt when he was sent to New York for the Nashua on Nov. 7 instead of attempting the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that weekend at Del Mar, where he won his debut.
Oviatt Class, who was third, bumped with MACKINNON leaving the gate, then trailed the compact field while in the two path around the first turn. He stayed in that spot to the far turn, could not keep pace three furlongs out during the third quarter-mile – the fastest (23.90) quarter-mile of the race – was fanned about five paths wide coming off the final bend, then showed good interest to rally late and just miss second. His best race came against maidens when he got a crackling pace into which to run. He had nothing of the sort here. His trainer, Keith Desormeaux, has a major presence at Fair Grounds, and it might be prudent to get this colt there and into a situation where there’s a big field that presents a better chance of finding pace.
Mackinnon, who was fourth, bumped with Oviatt Class leaving the gate, then saved ground around the first turn while right behind Newgrange. He was understandably keen turning up the backside, but was under restraint with nowhere to go. He saved ground on the far turn, was angled out at the top of the lane for a clear run, but only went evenly through the stretch. This was designed to see if he would handle dirt going two turns, but like Oviatt Class the race did not unfold in his favor whatsoever.
DEGREE OF RISK, who was last of five, stalked the top two while three paths wide around the first turn. He pulled a bit to edge closer midway through the race, was unable to keep pace three furlongs out while remaining three paths wide, was fanned widest of all at the top of the lane while faltering, was late to change leads, and was allowed to coast home when it was apparent he wasn’t going to do any better. This was his first try on dirt after six races on turf or all-weather, and he’ll certainly head back to those scenarios.