Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: Lexington Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $398,750 Lexington Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Keeneland, April 16, 2022
(20 Derby qualifying points for first, 8 for second, 4 for third, 2 for fourth)

Winner: Tawny Port, by Pioneerof the Nile
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Owner: Peachtree Stable
Beyer Speed Figure: 89

The long and winding points-scoring road toward the Derby, which began in September, ended here with TAWNY PORT further solidifying his position in the field while proving he could handle dirt and come back on short rest following his runner-up effort in the Jeff Ruby two weeks prior. A more accurate assessment of where he seems to stack up with this crop overall is the Risen Star, in which he finished fifth, behind such top Derby candidates as Epicenter, Smile Happy, and Zandon.

In this race, Tawny Port broke alertly, allowing him to set up in an ideal spot around the first turn, just behind the dueling leaders while three to four paths wide. He dropped back a bit during the run down the backside while remaining wide, was asked to advance on the far turn while four paths wide, took a while to reel in the leaders but finally did so with about a sixteenth of a mile to go, and gradually edged clear. He finished in a workmanlike fashion, but certainly lost significant ground.

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MAJOR GENERAL, who finished second, broke a half-step slow but quickly got in gear, split horses in the two path heading into the first turn, and wound up battling for the lead around the first turn while crossing over to the rail. He set a solid pace while hounded by STRAVA, had Strava turn up the pressure as they rounded the far turn, turned back Strava in upper stretch after taking a while to finally change leads, couldn’t hold safe Tawny Port, but easily saved second. He simply was second-best.

IN DUE TIME, who was third, saved ground into the first turn and then settled midpack in the two path around the turn. He moved a bit closer down the backstretch while between rivals, was alongside Tawny Port three furlongs out when asked to advance, couldn’t quicken with the eventual winner, dropped back a bit while in the two path on the far turn, cut the corner into the lane, and made decent progress inside while under aggressive handling. He ran in spots, like a horse who might need blinkers.

ETHEREAL ROAD, who was fourth, raced toward the back half of the field while saving ground around the first turn, was bottled up in severe traffic heading toward the far turn, rallied in the three path on the far turn before being fanned wider coming off the bend, and finished evenly. He was closer to Tawny Port at the top of the lane than he was at the finish.

Strava, who was fifth, broke sharply and then vied for the lead with Major General around the first turn. He continued to hound Major General down the backstretch and through the far turn, was nearly even with Major General heading into the lane, but weakened in the final 150 yards. He probably wants a shorter trip.

DASH ATTACK, who finished sixth, went into the first turn about five paths wide and eventually crossed over to the three path while racing just behind and outside Major General and Strava. He couldn’t stay with those two beginning three furlongs out and gradually weakened the rest of the way. His two best races, his first two, were on off tracks. He hasn’t made any progress since.

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MIDNIGHT CHROME, who was seventh, broke slowly and trailed badly around the first turn while saving ground. He made some progress heading to the far turn, but was outrun anew around the far turn while in the two path and merely passed some weary rivals after being angled to the middle of the track for the stretch run.

HOWLING TIME, who was eighth, raced toward the back half of the field while two to three paths wide around the first turn, raced between rivals while in traffic down the backstretch, got shuffled back to 10th heading into the far turn while showing zero fight whatsoever, and was well back the rest of the way. After two sharp wins to start his career, he’s gone south.

CALL ME MIDNIGHT, who was ninth, was four to five paths wide around the first turn while toward the rear of the field. He never could get over down the backstretch and went into the far turn about four paths wide while following Tawny Port, but after making some progress lost his punch before reaching the top of the lane, got floated out by Ethereal Road, and pretty much quit. His win in the Lecomte is an outlier. While he won going two turns that day, I’m convinced his future will be best served making one run around one turn.

SKATE TO HEAVEN, who was 10th, was outrun early and saved ground around the first turn in the two path while toward the rear of the field. He made a bit of progress heading down the backside while inside, but failed to sustain his run, was unable to quicken three furlongs out, quickly retreated, and was virtually eased the final furlong.

WE ALL SEE IT, who finished last of 11, broke sharply and then saved ground around the first turn while just behind the dueling leaders and inside of Tawny Port. He followed Major General down the backstretch, was asked aggressively beginning three furlongs out, but came off the bridle before reaching the top of the lane, did not change leads in upper stretch, and was allowed to coast home by a sympathetic Luis Saez.