Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: Lecomte Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Fair Grounds, Jan. 22, 2022
(10 Derby qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Call Me Midnight, by Midnight Lute
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: James Graham
Owner: Peter Cantrell
Beyer Speed Figure: 88

CALL ME MIDNIGHT ended his 2-year-old campaign with a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2022-kentucky-derby-kentucky-jockey-club-stakes-analysis), a performance that could have been viewed two ways:

1) he flattened out after a wide trip, perhaps indicating he’s best around one turn, or

2) he flattened out after a wide trip, perhaps indicating the wide trip was more to blame (along with a moderate pace).

Those who picked number 1 (raises hand) had to tip their cap to those who chose number 2 in Saturday's race, as they were rewarded with a $59 mutuel. Call Me Midnight, benefitting from a crackling early pace and allowed by Graham – also aboard for his lone prior win - to make one belated run, rallied from eighth in the nine-horse field and got up late to edge an unlucky EPICENTER. He earned a Beyer figure that was a career-best and a 14-point jump from his best figs last year, the kind of improvement one wants to see in a horse going from 2 to 3.

Pace certainly made the race here, but it’s evident from this race that Call Me Midnight certainly can handle two turns against stakes-class company.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2022: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

In this race, Call Me Midnight lacked speed per usual and was guided by Graham from post 8 to about the two path around the first turn. He remained well back, with no one around him, until the far turn, began to gain ground while still in the two path, swung out after coming off the final bend, and came charging down the center of the track to nail Epicenter on the money. I’m still not sure he wants much farther than this – he ran like a miler who needs a hot pace – but after underestimating him last time I’ll withhold further judgment until the Risen Star, et al. He’s clearly more than a one-run, one-turn horse.

Epicenter, who finished second, deserved a better fate. He showed good speed from between rivals to take the lead into the first turn while in the two path, and set a sharp pace (23.40 seconds, :47.01) for the first half-mile. He disposed of his two nearest pace rivals – BLUE KENTUCKY and SURFER DUDE - on the far turn, drifted off the rail in upper stretch, turned back a serious bid from PAPPACAP at midstretch, and was caught right on the wire. Underscoring the quality of his performance is that pace rivals Blue Kentucky and Surfer Dude were beaten 12 1/2 lengths and 31 lengths, respectively.

Pappacap, who was third, raced mid-pack in the two path early on the first turn and then was guided to the rail. He was a bit keen early on the backstretch and inched closer while drafting behind Epicenter. He got through inside on the far turn while continuing to follow Epicenter, then had a sweet rail run open when Epicenter came off the rail in upper stretch. He tried but never could get past Epicenter through the lane, and was losing ground to Epicenter in the final 50 yards. He was simply not good enough on the day despite a glorious trip, but this was his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2022-kentucky-derby-breeders-cup-juvenile-analysis), so he was conceding recent form to Epicenter.

TRAFALGAR, who was fourth, broke half a step slow but advanced quickly to sit just behind the three early leaders while slightly in front of, and outside of, Pappacap. He lost ground early on the backstretch, had to be ridden along a bit to hold his position down the backstretch, failed to keep pace three furlongs out, followed Pappacap into the lane, was gradually angled off the rail through the stretch, and went one-paced through the final furlong. He ran like a lumbering sort, and failed to finish off the race with enthusiasm.

PRESIDENTIAL, who finished fifth, broke slowly, had no early speed, and was guided to the rail in the opening yards from his wide draw. He saved ground around the first turn, down the backstretch, and around the far turn, angled out through the lane to split rivals a sixteenth out, and made up some late ground in a race whose shape was much to his benefit.

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CYBERKNIFE, who was sixth, raced three paths wide around the first turn while outside Trafalgar, inched closer into the far turn, was caught four paths wide on the far turn while moving into a threatening position, lugged-in in upper stretch and bumped Blue Kentucky, and had nothing to offer the final quarter-mile.

Blue Kentucky, who was seventh, was sent along to press the early pace from the three path, remained three paths wide on the far turn while futilely chasing Epicenter, took a bump from Cyberknife in upper stretch while weakening, and continued to fade. This was his first try around two turns and he failed to handle the assignment.

UNIFIED REPORT, who was eighth, saved ground while mid-pack around the first turn, was outrun heading to the far turn, hugged the rail on the far turn but never was involved while overmatched in his first race around two turns and against something other than Louisiana-breds.

Surfer Dude, who finished last of nine, used his inside draw and early speed to press the pace inside Epicenter around the first turn before conceding the lead and being angled outside Epicenter early on the backstretch. He stayed in the two path around the turn while failing to get on terms with Epicenter, began to weaken before reaching the quarter pole, then readily gave way and was ridden sympathetically the final furlong.