Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes analysis
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
Grade 2, $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Churchill Downs, Nov. 27, 2021
(10 Derby qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Smile Happy, by Runhappy
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Owner: Lucky Seven Stable
Beyer Speed Figure: 90
In a performance that was good at first blush and gets better with multiple viewings, SMILE HAPPY rolled to an authoritative victory while earning a solid Beyer figure over the track where the Derby will be held next May.
Smile Happy had won his lone prior start, a maiden race going long at Keeneland, in similar fashion, and easily handled this jump in class. He was ridden as though he was the best horse, and proved to be so, making a solid rally while four paths wide throughout on the far turn and still powering clear through the lane. This is a serious horse.
In this race, Smile Happy had enough tactical speed to head into the clubhouse turn in the two path while tracking the early leaders. He was angled wider during the run down the backstretch, forcing him to go four wide on the far turn, but it mattered not, as he made an extended rally, put away CLASSIC CAUSEWAY in upper stretch, and drew off. He swapped to his incorrect lead very late in the stretch, but that’s an admittedly nitpicky observation as he did so much right, and in only his second start. He also might have benefitted from a race that appears to have had a bit of an outside flow, but there’s a lot to like here.
Classic Causeway, who finished second, hesitated slightly when the gates opened but recovered in an instant and used his rail draw to save ground into the first turn before being angled to get outside rivals by the time he entered the backstretch. He moved in tandem with Smile Happy heading to the far turn to go after the leaders from the three path, couldn’t stay with the winner coming to the furlong grounds, but finished well in front of everyone else.
WHITE ABARRIO, who was third, raced between rivals into the first turn while pressing the pace before easing back to take up a stalking position behind pacesetting HOWLING TIME while saving ground. He stayed in that spot down the backstretch and around the far turn, was outrun coming to the quarter pole, gradually angled off the rail through the lane and finished steadily the final furlong. Not a bad effort for his third race and first around two turns.
BEN DIESEL, who was fourth, vied for the early lead from the three path into the first turn and wound up second, stalking Howling Time, entering the backstretch. He inched closer to the leader moving around the far turn, with Classic Causeway and Smile Happy to his outside, yielded to the top two inside the furlong pole, and tired late.
Howling Time, who was fifth, hesitated a split second when the gate opened but then rocketed to the front. He continued to lead down the backstretch and around the far turn while setting a solid pace, but gradually faded through the lane while having raced on the inside throughout.
VIVAR, who finished sixth, raced mid-pack while saving ground around the first turn, raced in traffic between rivals late on the backstretch, couldn’t keep pace with the eventual top two finishers when asked to advance on the far turn, then went evenly through the lane. He’s probably a cut below these.
CALL ME MIDNIGHT, who was seventh, had no early speed and went into the first turn toward the rear of the pack while in the three path. He raced widest of all down the backstretch and entered the far turn in the five path, was within hailing distance of the eventual winner midway on the turn, but showed little thereafter. He might be better as a one-run, one-turn horse.
RED KNOBS, who was eighth, acted up in the gate shortly before the start, then broke last and trailed into the first turn. He remained well back throughout and passed a few tired rivals late while never making any impact whatsoever.
GUNTOWN, who was ninth, raced toward the rear of the pack while saving ground around the first turn, crept closer down the backside while following White Abarrio, but was outrun beginning three furlongs out while remaining inside throughout.
TEXAS RED HOT, who was 10th, raced alongside Guntown toward the rear of the pack around the first turn, raced in traffic between rivals heading into the far turn, entered the turn in the three path, had no response when asked to try and advance, and was done before reaching the quarter pole. He needs softer and shorter.
READY PURSUIT, who finished last of 11, was urged away from the gate but was outrun and went into the first turn three to four paths wide while mid-pack. He continued to lose ground down the backstretch, was three paths wide on the far turn, but was always badly outrun while overmatched.