Road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby: Santa Anita Derby analysis

Grade 1, $752,000 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Santa Anita, April 3, 2021
(100 Derby qualifying points for first, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Rock Your World, by Candy Ride
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Owner: Hronis Racing LLC and Talla Racing LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 100

ROCK YOUR WORLD delivered an emphatic performance in his first dirt try, setting a strong pace and kicking clear for a lopsided victory while earning the fastest Beyer figure of those still in the running for this year’s Derby. This was only his third start, so there’s still potential upside. He’s a grand-looking colt, he has contending speed, and distance won’t be a factor. He’ll be on the short list of major win contenders come May 1.

Much had been expected of Rock Your World before he even ran. He got a shout-out back on Dec. 22 in our pre-meet story on 2-year-olds turning 3 to watch (https://www.drf.com/news/top-juvenile-stakes-horses-may-yield-faster-prospects-santa-anita-meet), 10 days before his debut. His trainer, John Sadler, took a clever route to this race, running Rock Your World twice on turf; he explained the reasoning in my Santa Anita Derby preview story (https://www.drf.com/news/medina-spirit-assumes-lead-role-shook-santa-anita-derby). Still, Rock Your World had to go out and prove himself against Medina Spirit, who in four previous starts had lost to only Life Is Good. Rock Your World more than proved himself. He was much the best. He’s an exciting prospect.

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In this race, owing to the inside draw, Rock Your World was sent away from the gate to get position, and he banked into the first turn on the lead inside of PARNELLI. He led narrowly from Parnelli and MEDINA SPIRIT in the run down the backstretch while setting a strong pace (:22.42, :46.11), then started to widen on his opposition early on the far turn without being asked. He was sent along approaching the quarter pole, easily turned back bids from Medina Spirit and DREAM SHAKE, was a bit late to change to his correct lead in upper stretch, swapped back to his incorrect lead at the sixteenth pole, yet continued to open up as Rispoli took his usual look behind, an annoying habit that serves zero purpose. Rock Your World galloped out with authority. He does not need the lead, but had to go with this draw. If he gets a wider draw in the Derby, I’m confident he can stalk and still finish, as he did in his first two starts.

Medina Spirit, who finished second, went into the first turn in the three path while just behind and outside of Rock Your World and Parnelli. He stayed in that spot down the backstretch and into the far turn, and was asked in earnest to try and keep up midway on the turn as Rock Your World widened. He was right with Dream Shake coming off the bend, and though he out-finished that rival he was no match for the winner. He runs a solid race every time, but off his last couple of races it’s fair to question if he wants much farther.

Dream Shake, who was third, followed Rock Your World around the first turn while saving ground, stayed in that spot to the far turn, got through inside Parnelli on the turn, was even with Medina Spirit coming off the bend, but couldn’t stay with him, let alone close the gap on the winner, after saving every inch of ground. He’s come a long way in a short amount of time after debuting Feb. 7. He should have a bright future if not thrown into the Derby, and with his pedigree he’s an intriguing turf prospect down the line.

DEFUNDED, who was fourth, broke a little sluggishly and was at the rear of the field, three to four paths wide, around the first turn, this despite exiting sprints. He never got over and was four to five paths wide on the far turn, swooped enough rivals to be in the three path coming off the bend, then finished evenly. Considering this was his third start, his first route, his first against winners, and only his second race following a layoff of more than six months – plus the ground loss and over a track that was kind to speed – this effort was better than it will look on paper. He’s worth following.

LAW PROFESSOR, who was fifth, was just behind the leaders in the two path while between rivals around the first turn, checked midway on the turn to lose some position, then remained between horses into the far turn. He was angled off the rail midway on the turn, only to run up on the heels of the tiring Parnelli, forcing him to take up. He then swung out to follow Defunded and passed some tired horses. This is an inconclusive race. He’s a steady-paced horse who can’t be ridden into traffic and forced to take up. Plus this was only his third start; he debuted in the same race as Dream Shake.

Parnelli, who was sixth, didn’t break alertly but moved quickly between Rock Your World and Medina Spirit in the opening furlong to press the pace, the addition of blinkers making him more keen. He was under some restraint on the first turn by Edwin Maldonado while sitting just behind and outside Rock Your World, moved closer midway down the backstretch, started to be outrun three furlongs out, and raced on his wrong lead through the lane while continuing to retreat. He looked to have plenty of promise last fall, but has regressed badly this meet.

THE GREAT ONE, who was seventh, veered in slightly leaving the gate, then was caught four paths wide, outside Medina Spirit, into the first turn. He never could get over and went into the far turn still four wide, but had nothing to offer when asked. He’s more Keith than Wayne.

BACK RING LUCK, who was eighth, veered in at the start, was quickly corrected and bumped with OTTOTHELEGEND, then went into the first turn toward the rear of the field while saving ground. He’s normally near the front, so this position did him no favors, but he was facing far better than he faced previously, which likely also contributed to him being outrun. He started to lose contact with the field heading to the far turn, went around the faltering Ottothelegend, but was always badly outrun. He was overmatched and needs much softer, against whom he can be forwardly placed.

Ottothelegend, who was last of nine, bumped with Back Ring Luck shortly after the start, was at the back of the pack between Back Ring Luck and Defunded around the first turn, was outrun entering the far turn, faltered badly three furlongs out, and was eased through the lane.