Top juvenile stakes horses may yield to faster prospects at Santa Anita meet

ARCADIA, Calif. – The trend the past couple of years with California-based preps for the Kentucky Derby has been for lightly raced, late-developing types to emerge, and that could continue this year during the Santa Anita meeting that begins Saturday.

The winners of the circuit’s Grade 1 races for 2-year-old males this year, Dr. Schivel and Get Her Number, are out of commission for a few months, and neither ran very fast in their big wins. Dr. Schivel got a Beyer Speed Figure of 74 in the Del Mar Futurity, Get Her Number an 84 in the American Pharoah. Spielberg, beaten in both those races, won the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity last Saturday with a Beyer of 81.

So, opportunity abounds – for horses who have made one start thus far, are returning after early season injuries, or haven’t even raced – to follow in the footsteps of two of the last three winners of the Derby. Justify didn’t make his first start until Feb. 18 of his 3-year-old season, and Authentic began this meet one year ago with only a debut win on his résumé.

Among those to watch is Affable, a Mark Glatt-trained son of Flatter who was second going six furlongs in his debut last month at Del Mar, earning a Beyer Figure of 84. He makes his second start, this time at seven furlongs, in race 2 on Saturday.

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“We’re excited. We think he wants to go farther,” Glatt said the other morning at Santa Anita. “One six-furlong race, one at seven furlongs, then stretch him out in his third start. Seems like nice progression.”

Bob Baffert, who trained Justify and Authentic, and also trains Spielberg, has two, Barraza and Man Friday, in Saturday’s race, part of a seemingly never-ending supply of Derby-aged runners. His roster is led by Life Is Good, who was a breathtaking winner on debut last month at Del Mar, earning a Beyer of 91, and received more support than any individual horse in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. But he’ll need to learn to ration his speed better than he did in a workout last Saturday, when he was way too fresh and went off way too fast.

They’ll be coming in waves for Baffert. Medina Spirit, a debut winner earlier this month at Los Alamitos, is being pointed to the Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes on Jan. 2, the first points-scoring race of the meet. Classier and Savile Row, both maiden winners, had minor recent setbacks but should be good to go soon enough, Baffert said. Freedom Fighter, sidelined since a debut win in August, is back working well. Newcomers to watch include Bezos (Empire Maker), Concert Tour (Street Sense), and Fenway, a powerful-looking son of Into Mischief, sire of Authentic.

John Shirreffs, who won this year’s Santa Anita Derby with Honor A. P., will run Parnelli against Medina Spirit in the Sham. Like Baffert, he too has an unraced Into Mischief colt worth keeping tabs on, Kahuna Magic.

John Sadler’s best prospect also might have yet to race. Rock Your World (Candy Ride) has impressed in recent works and is scheduled to debut early in the meet.

Peter Eurton’s contingent includes Roadside (Street Sense), who also has looked well in his recent drills, as has Eleniak (Creative Cause) for Vladimir Cerin.

Hot Rod Charlie, who ran second at 94-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, is scheduled to work this weekend in preparation for his 3-year-old debut later this meet, trainer Doug O’Neill said. Get Her Number is in light training, scheduled to race again in February or March, according to Peter Miller. Rombauer, second in the American Pharaoh for Michael McCarthy, also should be seen later in the meet.

After the Sham, the points-scoring races include the Grade 3, $100,000 Robert Lewis on Jan. 30 and the Grade 2, $300,000 San Felipe on March 6, all leading to the Grade 1, $750,000 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby on April 3 and then the Kentucky Derby on May 1.

The filly side also is in flux. Princess Noor was retired after being injured in the Grade 1 Starlet, won by Baffert-trained stablemate Varda with a Beyer Figure of 68. The highly regarded Astute, fourth in the Starlet, emerged from the race with extremely sore feet and has had her shoes pulled, trainer Richard Mandella said. Mandella also has Moonlight d’Oro, who got a Beyer of 87 winning a mile maiden race at Los Alamitos earlier this month. She will remain around two turns.

The first points-scoring race on the road to the April 30 Kentucky Oaks is the Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Ynez on Jan. 3. Exotic West, a debut winner for Baffert at Del Mar, and Sadler’s Queengol, runner-up in the Desi Arnaz to Astute, are among those expected. Miss Dracarys, who won her debut at Aqueduct on turf for Neil Drysdale, will remain on turf for her next start, but could be switched to dirt as meet progresses toward the Grade 2, $400,000 Santa Anita Oaks on April 3.