Grade 1, $1,840,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, 1 1/16 miles, Keeneland, Nov. 6, 2020 (20 Derby qualifying points for first, 8 for second, 4 for third, 2 for fourth) Winner: Essential Quality, by Tapit Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Luis Saez Owner: Godolphin LLC Beyer Speed Figure: 95 ESSENTIAL QUALITY finished off an unbeaten campaign with this victory, his third. He had a couple of advantages in this race. He had won over the track and at this distance previously in the Breeders’ Futurity, and he got a hot pace (22.58 seconds, 45.31) that helped set up his late run. That said, he’s obviously a talented colt, having increased his Beyer Speed Figures in every start, recording an 88 and then a 95 in his two races around two turns. He has the pedigree to handle more distance, and he’s in a top barn. He goes into the winter as the favorite for the Derby, and undoubtedly with an Eclipse Award as the divisional champion. In this race, Essential Quality raced midpack while two to three paths wide on the first turn, was asked to advance beginning three furlongs out while four paths wide on the far turn, was angled to the middle of the track coming into the lane, was slightly late to change leads, and steadily closed to get up. As noted in the Breeders’ Futurity analysis, he paddles pretty widely with his left front. Hopefully, soundness won’t be an issue going forward. HOT ROD CHARLIE, who finished second, nearly pulled off a giant upset at 94-1. He was hustled from his wide draw and went into the first turn in the three path, midpack, just in front of Essential Quality. He made an extended run heading into and then around the far turn while three paths wide, took the lead a furlong out, and gave way grudgingly. He took four starts to beat maidens, but added blinkers that day, and came out of that to run this race, by far his career best. He was favored in his first three starts, all losses, so he’s been held in good regard. The lightbulb just took a while to go on. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2021: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more KEEPMEINMIND, who was third, is still a maiden but has run very well in his last two starts, here and a runner-up effort in the Breeders’ Futurity. This time, he broke slowly and was last of 14 into the first turn. He started advancing into and around the far turn, split rivals while in the three path, and kept grinding away to pass all but the top two. The race shape helped him, but he acts like he’ll run all day. JACKIE’S WARRIOR, who was fourth, broke fast and was hustled away from the gate, but was outrun to the first turn by the more intent DREAMER’S DISEASE and CLASSIER. He had to ease back off the heels of Dreamer’s Disease, putting him behind rivals around that turn. He was angled to the middle of the track down the backstretch and followed dueling leaders Dreamer’s Disease and LIKEABLE. He advanced outside those two from the three path early on the far turn, got past Dreamer’s Disease to take the lead heading into the lane, was immediately confronted by Hot Rod Charlie, then weakened in the final sixteenth. This was a huge performance considering the race shape, but it also calls into question if this speedy and talented colt can handle more distance next spring. I liked the way he finished off the Champagne, so I’m still of the belief two turns is within his grasp. A mile and a quarter might be too big a hurdle, but he’s got plenty of time to learn to harness his speed and make it last. ROMBAUER, who was fifth, raced near the rear of the pack in the two path around the first turn, saved ground initially on the far turn, angled wider on the turn, had Keepmeinmind rush past inside him midway on the turn, then went evenly the rest of the way. Dreamer’s Disease, who was sixth, broke sharply and was sent aggressively from post 10 to take the lead and get to the rail into the first turn. He continued to go swiftly down the backstretch while accompanied by Likeable, put away that rival early on the far turn, led narrowly a quarter-mile out, then steadily faded through the lane, understandable considering what he was asked to do early, acting as a pacemaker for stablemate Keepmeinmind. He might be okay if sensibly spotted going forward. KING FURY, who was seventh, used his inside draw to save ground while midpack around the first turn, had to wait briefly in traffic midway on the far turn but got through inside, had to angle around the tiring Classier in upper stretch, but never really accelerated. Considering the race shape and all the ground he saved, he should have finished better. Classier, who finished eighth, was sent aggressively from the gate, threw his head when Dreamer’s Disease crossed over in front of him, then moved up between Dreamer’s Disease and Likeable around the first turn while still keen. He eased back a bit heading into the backstretch to let Dreamer’s Disease and Likeable knock it out, re-engaged anew inside of Jackie’s Warrior heading to the far turn, had to wait slightly in traffic, got through inside, then emptied out in the final furlong. He was making only his second start, two weeks after debuting with a win in a sprint, so this was a lot to ask, especially considering the hot pace he was forced to press. With the expected time he’ll get until his next start, he’ll have a better chance to show what he’s got. This was a tough assignment. SITTIN ON GO, who was ninth, had no early speed and was in front of only Keepmeinmind around the first turn. He was four paths wide heading into the far turn while right with Keepmeinmind, but couldn’t go with that rival, came into the lane five wide, and made no impact. He ran like a horse who’s much better making one run around one turn. REINVESTMENT RISK, who was 10th, got shuffled back between rivals into the first turn, saved ground while just behind and inside of Essential Quality, was right with Essential Quality three furlongs out, waited briefly in traffic, went to the three path, but never showed any spark thereafter. This was a huge disappointment considering what he’d done chasing Jackie’s Warrior in the Hopeful and Champagne. CALIBRATE, who was 11th, raced three to four paths wide around the first turn, in the second half of the field, after starting from the disadvantageous outside post. He was outrun down the backstretch, continued wide into the far turn, had Keepmeinmind roar past him from the inside, and never offered any response whatsoever. CAMP HOPE, who was 12th, veered in at the start, saved ground toward the rear of the field while inside Rombauer around the first turn, got through inside every step of the way thereafter, but never got involved at any point despite the favorable pace scenario. Likeable, who was 13th, was out-footed by Classier and Jackie’s Warrior in the opening strides, but then went outside those two into the first turn and quickly advanced three paths wide to go after pacesetting Dreamer’s Disease. He was part of a torrid pace, but was done with three furlongs to go and quickly retreated. NEXT, who finished last of 14, got pushed out by Likeable heading into the first turn and was asked to try and keep up while in the four path. He raced in the clear in fifth heading into and down the backstretch, but was done before even reaching the far turn, stopped badly, and was ridden sympathetically the final quarter-mile.