Road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby: Champagne Stakes analysis

Grade 1, $250,000 Champagne Stakes, one mile, Belmont Park, Oct. 10, 2020
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Jackie’s Warrior, by Maclean’s Music
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Owner: Kirk and Judy Robison
Beyer Speed Figure: 100

JACKIE’S WARRIOR continued to reign as the best of the division at this point with another powerful performance, giving him a perfect record of 4 for 4, all while continuing to increase his Beyer Speed Figures each time. This was a career top, five points superior to what he earned in his prior start, the Hopeful. The number is legit. It was 5 1/2 lengths back to second-place REINVESTMENT RISK, and another 8 3/4 lengths to third-place MIDNIGHT BOURBON, who was second in last month’s Iroquois, the first leg of the Road to the Derby series.

Although Jackie’s Warrior has yet to go around two turns, he looked strong at the end of this race, which bodes well for when he stretches out. His sire already produced a Preakness winner in Cloud Computing.

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In this race, Jackie’s Warrior broke sharply despite being bumped by Reinvestment Risk and immediately took command. He appeared comfortable on the front end, showing no signs of being overeager. Reinvestment Risk got to his hip entering the far turn, but Jackie’s Warrior had no trouble holding him safe, with Rosario even looking back midway on the turn, indicating he had plenty of horse under him. He changed leads a tad early nearing the end of the turn, drifted out slightly, turned back a bid from Reinvestment Risk in midstretch, then kicked clear with authority. He was taken in hand the final 50 yards, with Rosario looking back three times in succession.

Reinvestment Risk, who was second, veered in at the start and then took up a stalking position just behind and outside of Jackie’s Warrior. He was at Jackie’s Warrior’s hip with a half-mile to go, was sent along aggressively three furlongs out to try and keep up, and was floated out by Jackie’s Warrior near the end of the turn. He was a bit late to change leads in upper stetch while taking another crack at Jackie’s Warrior, but saw the winner leave him in the final furlong, though he was well in front of everyone else. He’s been no match for Jackie’s Warrior here and in the Hopeful, but chasing a talented, loose leader is a tough chore.

Midnight Bourbon, who was third, was away cleanly from his outside stall and then settled into third, just behind and outside of Reinvestment Risk. He gained a bit on the top two while widest of all on the far turn, but started to be outrun prior to the quarter pole. He finished steadily to easily beat everyone but the top two, but he’s clearly a significant cut below the top two at this point.

CIVIL WAR, who was fourth, checked at the start and raced at the rear of the field alongside RUN CASPER RUN down the backstretch. He stayed in that spot in the two path around the far turn, raced on his wrong lead down the lane, and proved best in a three-horse photo that took place nearly 25 lengths behind the winner.

Run Casper Run, who was fifth, broke a step slow while bumping with AMBIVALENT and then raced inside of Civil War at the rear of the field down the backstretch. He stayed there while hugging the rail around the far turn, but never was anywhere close to contention while overmatched.

Ambivalent, who finished last of six, bumped with Run Casper Run leaving the gate, raced in the clear along the inside down the backstretch while following the top three, got within about three lengths of Jackie’s Warrior midway on the turn while saving ground, but was badly outrun the final quarter-mile. He’s still winless after five starts, three of those races coming in stakes, two graded. Some class relief seems in order.