Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Shared Belief Stakes analysis

Listed, $98,000 Shared Belief Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Del Mar, Aug. 1, 2020
(50 Derby qualifying points for first, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Thousand Words, by Pioneerof the Nile
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Abel Cedillo
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Spendthrift Farm
Beyer Speed Figure: 104

As with the Haskell (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2020-kentucky-derby-haskell-stakes-analysis) two weeks ago, here’s another final Derby prep in which the figure seems in contrast to how the race looked visually.

THOUSAND WORDS came into the year as one of the top Derby contenders, but he was off form this spring. Freshened, he ran an improved race against stablemate Uncle Chuck in the Los Alamitos Derby (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2020-kentucky-derby-los-alamitos-derby-analysis), but going into this race still hadn’t earned a figure superior to the 91 he got at age 2.

He had trained impressively at Del Mar leading up to this race, outworking stablemate and fellow race entrant CEZANNE one week prior. But in a race in which the four runners were separated by just 1 1/2 lengths at the finish, and in which favored HONOR A. P. looked as though he went through the motions, the figure came back very strong, by far the career-best for Thousand Words. Honor A. P. got the same fig (102) he received in the Santa Anita Derby, and both KISS TODAY GOODBYE and Cezanne got lifetime best figs, too.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2020: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

The Beyer boys played it straight. There was only one other two-turn dirt race on this card, race 5, which was run about 90 minutes after the Shared Belief. The variant was treated similarly for both races; it wasn’t split. With the later race producing a final figure close to par, that meant the Shared Belief (race 2) had to get a significantly higher number, as it was much faster for its distance than race 5.

That said, I remain skeptical that three of the four runners produced new tops, and Honor A. P. ran as well as in the Santa Anita Derby. That’s not how it looked. And as much as I trust and believe in figs, I also have to trust my eyes.

Thousand Words was slightly anxious in the paddock, and was saddled on the walk, but nothing in his behavior was alarming in the least. He broke sharply from his inside draw and immediately went for the lead, with Cezanne in closest attendance. He set a comfortable pace (23.89 quarter, 47.93 half), with Honor A. P. ranging up outside him early on the backstretch, before Cezanne re-emerged as his closest challenger heading to the far turn. He was sent along midway on the far turn when Cezanne and Honor A. P. came closer, was under heavy urging from Cedillo heading into the lane, and fought off all challengers.

Thousand Words is more of a grinding type than a horse with acceleration, so it’s doubtful he’d be on the lead in the Derby – especially if Authentic is there – but when he’s on his game he doesn’t back down from a fight. That’s what he showed early in his career, and that tenacity was back on display here. Still, despite this fig, I remain doubtful that he’s as good as division leaders such as Tiz the Law or even barnmate Uncle Chuck, and I’m firmly of the belief Honor A. P. is a lot better than what he showed here.

Honor A. P., who finished second, was bumped leaving the gate by Cezanne and was last in the opening strides, then was taken three paths wide around the first turn and advanced all the way to second as the pace slowed. He got within a half-length of Thousand Words going down the backside, but was kept in the middle of the track by Mike Smith, allowing Cezanne to split Thousand Words and Honor A. P. heading toward the far turn. Honor A. P. moved to challenge anew heading around the far turn, but Smith had to nudge on him midway on the turn and had the whip at the ready before turning into the lane.

There was a point in upper stretch where Honor A. P. appeared to be going nowhere, and might even finish last. But when Kiss Today Goodbye came up outside him, he re-engaged and made a late surge. Smith said after the race that Honor A. P. was sluggish away from the gate and off the bridle midway through the race. Despite all that, he still finished second. His subsequent works will bear close watching, but if he could run this well while not putting forth his best effort, at a distance well short of optimum for him, he’s capable of a big bounce back going 1 1/4 miles in five weeks.

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Kiss Today Goodbye, who was third, ran a remarkable race for a horse who was 1 for 6 lifetime and only owned a maiden win. He was bumped at the start by Honor A. P. in a chain reaction initiated by Cezanne, then followed Thousand Words around the first turn while saving ground. Last entering the far turn, he gradually angled out rounding that turn and came into the lane in the four path, and courageously kept to his task through the stretch to be lapped on Honor A. P. at the finish.

Cezanne, who was last of the quartet, came into the paddock looking a bit heavy, not uncommon for him. He broke to his left leaving the gate and bothered two rivals, but was quickly pulled off of them by Flavien Prat. He then moved closest to Thousand Words while being kept about 2 1/2 paths wide on the first turn. He dropped back between rivals heading into the backstretch after Honor A. P. ranged up outside him, then split rivals heading toward the far turn to again move back into second. He was on even terms with Thousand Words with a quarter-mile to go, was a bit late to change leads in upper stretch, couldn’t stay with his stablemate through the lane, then weakened in the closing yards.