Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Risen Star (first division) analysis

Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (first division), 1 1/8 miles, Fair Grounds, Feb. 15, 2020
(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)
Winner: Mr. Monomoy, by Palace Malice
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Owner: Madaket Stables LLC, Michael Dubb, and Doheny Racing Stable
Beyer Speed Figure: 92

Prep races worth 85 points overall and 50 to the winner commenced with the Risen Star, which was split into two divisions owing to 23 horses being entered (11 ended up running in each division). The races were run consecutively at the end of a 13-race card, so they can be easily compared.

This division appeared to be the stronger on paper, and it played out that way. Even though the half-mile split was exactly the same (48.57 seconds) in both divisions, this race ended up .85 seconds faster, and thus produced a Beyer Speed Figure eight points superior (92-84) to the second division.

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MR. MONOMOY led virtually start to finish in this race. He had run an admirable race when third in the Lecomte, when he was the only horse near the lead to stick around at the end, but I was concerned that he also might be reaching the outer limits of his distance capabilities. This race unfolded at a slower clip (24.22 seconds for the quarter vs. 23.46 in the Lecomte, 48.57 here vs. 47.41 in the Lecomte), and that no doubt helped his cause and compromised the chances of runner-up ENFORCEABLE, who had won the Lecomte when rallying into that sharp pace.

In this race, Mr Monomoy broke well and used his outside post to move to the lead without having to be hustled along, his natural speed allowing him to get to the rail by the time he reached the first turn. He led over a stalking BLACKBERRY WINE into and then down the backstretch, was challenged by Blackberry Wine heading around the far turn, shook free of that rival in upper stretch, turned back a mild bid from DIGITAL in midstretch, then kicked clear.

Enforceable, who finished second, broke half a step slowly and then got shuffled back heading into the first turn to be last while saving ground. With a moderate pace unfolding in front of him, he made a sharp, midrace move along the inside down the backstretch, then waited anew entering the far turn. He saved some ground in about the two path for most of the far turn, then was wheeled out to the middle of the track in upper stretch and closed steadily, though he never threatened the winner. I like this colt a lot. He has improved markedly from a 2-year-old, the experience he’s gaining from multiple races proving invaluable. He made a midrace move, sat, then finished well, all in a race where the pace was not as beneficial to him as in the Lecomte. More distance will only suit him, too.

SILVER STATE, who was third, raced midpack while between rivals and in some traffic around the first turn, had a clear run from the three path around the far turn before getting fanned about five wide coming off the bend, was urged aggressively in upper stretch but couldn’t close on the leader and couldn’t hold the place late.

FARMINGTON ROAD, who was fourth, raced near the rear of the pack in the three path around the first turn, rallied about three to four paths wide on the far turn before getting fanned about six wide coming off the bend, then made steady progress through the lane. This was his best race yet.

Digital, who was fifth, used his rail draw to be in a fairly forward position early while saving ground, followed Mr. Monomoy down the backstretch and drafted right behind him with three furlongs to go, was able to tip out heading into the lane and had every chance to run down the leader but emptied out in the late going. He had an ideal trip and couldn’t stay.

SCABBARD, who was sixth, raced three wide while mid-pack around the first turn, began a rally in the three path on the far turn, was between Enforceable and Farmington Road coming off the bend, and lacked the necessary late kick. Both his races this year have been disappointing, and add to the growing evidence that the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, in which he finished fourth, is a negative key race.

Blackberry Wine, who finished seventh, conceded the lead to Mr. Monomoy heading to the first turn and then took up a stalking position outside him. He advanced to be right with Mr. Monomoy midway around the far turn, couldn’t stay with Mr. Monomoy in upper stretch, then faltered.

MOON OVER MIAMI, who was eighth, veered in at the start and bumped PERFECT REVENGE, then held his head high going into the first turn as if bothered by the kickback. He dropped back down the backstretch despite being asked to hold his position, rallied in the two path on the far turn before angling out about four wide coming into the lane, but was never in the hunt at any point.

READY TO ROLL, who was ninth, veered out at the start but showed good speed to move to a forward position before easing back off the heels of Mr. Monomoy into the first turn, though he wound up in a super spot, in the clear in third behind the two leaders. He was in a perfect striking position on the far turn while racing in the two path, but began to weaken before the quarter pole, got fanned out when Digital fled the rail, then continued to retreat.

Perfect Revenge, who was 10th, stumbled leaving the gate and then was bumped by Moon Over Miami, then saved ground around the first turn while toward the back half of the field. He had Enforceable rush past him on the inside down the backstretch, saved ground on the far turn while appearing as though he wanted to lug out, and had nothing to offer the rest of the way.

SHASHASHAKEMEUP, who was last of 11, was fourth on the first turn while just behind and outside of Ready to Roll. He began to be outrun while heading down the backstretch, then stopped badly when heading around the far turn and was ridden sympathetically through the lane.