Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Lecomte Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte, 1 1/16 miles, Fair Grounds, Jan. 18, 2020
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Enforceable, by Tapit
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Owner: John Oxley
Beyer Speed Figure: 89

ENFORCEABLE, the best bred horse in the race and tied for the most experience with six prior starts, continued his steady progression by winning his second race and his first stakes while earning a career-best figure in his 3-year-old debut. I thought his immaturity betrayed him at times last year – he tossed his head about in the early going of the Kentucky Jockey Club, for instance – but he was thoroughly professional this day. He moved when asked by Leparoux, did not idle once hitting the front, and was strong to the wire. He has beautiful action. There should be no limit to his distance capabilities, too, and if he continues to move forward he could be a significant player this spring.

The one aspect of this race that bears scrutiny, though, is that he got an ideal setup, with a strong, contested pace (23.46, 47.41) that helped late runners. He was 11th of 13 early, runner-up SILVER STATE was ninth early, and fourth-place finisher FINNICK THE FIERCE was 12th early. The only horse who earned points in this race who was near the front early was third-place finisher MR. MONOMOY.

In this race, Enforceable lacked early speed and banked into the first turn toward the rear of the field while in the three path. He began to rally early on the far turn while between rivals, advanced to a clear spot three paths wide and then was gradually angled to about the five path heading into the lane to go around tiring rivals. He changed leads right on cue, moved strongly to hit the front more than a furlong out, and never seemed in danger the rest of the way.

Silver State, who was second, stumbled leaving the gate and bumped with JACK THE UMPIRE, then went into the first turn about three to four paths wide, a couple of lengths in front of Enforceable. He was taken to the inside three furlongs out and at that point was even with the winner, was outfooted by Enforceable over the next furlong, was angled out coming off the bend, was in some traffic while between runners in upper stretch, but powered through and continued well to the finish. Considering this was only his third race and his first going two turns, plus it wasn’t a completely clean trip, he ran well.

Mr. Monomoy, who finished third, was sent away from his inside post to establish early position, and settled into fourth around the first turn while hugging the rail, not far behind the leaders. He had to await room around the far turn while in the two path, finally got a seam in upper stretch, but simply wasn’t good enough late. While he was close to the lively pace, I’ll be attuned to whether he might be reaching the outer limits of his distance capabilities.

Finnick the Fierce, who was fourth, has no early speed but used his inside draw to save ground around the first turn while toward the rear of the field. He rallied four wide on the far turn and got fanned about six wide entering the lane, was right alongside Silver State a furlong out, but just went evenly late while showing an inclination to lug in. He barely held fourth, and the top three sailed away from him over the final furlong. His best race to date was on a sloppy, sealed track in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

SCABBARD, who was fifth, saved ground on the first turn while following Mr. Monomoy, stayed in that spot to the far turn, was bottled up in traffic in upper stretch behind the tiring BANGO, followed Mr. Monomoy through a hole a furlong out, but lacked the kind of acceleration needed in the late stages. This was his first start off an abbreviated work pattern, so he has a right to improve, but he must.

SHASHASHAKEMEUP, who was sixth, was asked aggressively leaving the gate to get over from his outside draw and went into the first turn in second, just behind and outside of Bango. He volleyed for the lead down the backstretch, poked his head in front three furlongs out, led into the lane, but weakened through the final furlong.

EXCESSION, who finished seventh, followed Scabbard around the first turn while midpack and saving ground, worked his way outside entering the far turn and rallied menacingly in the four path, but could not sustain his rally and lost ground through the final furlong.

HALO AGAIN, who was eighth, was outrun early and was 10th around the first turn, was asked heading into the far turn but could not keep up, made the mildest of rallies on the far turn, came into the lane about five paths wide, was strongly encouraged to progress but had little to offer.

Bango, who was ninth, had made all of his five prior starts in sprints and used his speed to get to the front and get to the rail early on the first turn despite a wide draw. He volleyed for the lead with Shashashakemeup down the backstretch, started to weaken before reaching the quarter pole, and steadily faded through the final furlong.

PERFECT STAR, who was 10th, was well back throughout and only passed three tired rivals. He’s 2 for 3 on turf and seems better suited to grass racing.

Jack the Umpire, who was 11th, bumped with Silver State leaving the gate, checked slightly off heels heading into the first turn, then took up a stalking position in third, three paths wide. He remained three wide into the far turn, began to weaken when heading into the lane, and then steadily dropped back.

SYCAMORE RUN, who was 12th, bobbled and broke outward when leaving the gate, was three paths wide on the first turn while following Jack the Umpire, was shoved along midway on the far turn but could not keep up, failed to change leads and tired badly. He only had one prior start, in a sprint, which he won nicely. This was a big ask off that one start, plus being drawn in post 13. The connections of Lynn’s Map, drawn in 14, scratched for the Smarty Jones six days later at Oaklawn.

NEW EAGLE, who finished last of 13, was midpack into the first turn while in some traffic, then was angled outside entering the backstretch. By the time he reached the far turn, he was already retreating, and he was well behind the field through the lane and was ridden sympathetically in the late going.