Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Kentucky Jockey Club analysis

Grade 2, $300,000 Kentucky Jockey Club, 1 1/16 miles, Churchill Downs, Nov. 30, 2019
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Silver Prospector, by Declaration of War
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Owner: Ed and Susie Orr
Beyer Speed Figure: 81

All eyes before and during this race were on heavily favored TIZ THE LAW, but it was SILVER PROSPECTOR who pulled off the mild upset in a race that left many questions.

The race was run over a sloppy, sealed track, and produced a soft Beyer figure for 2-year-old stakes horses this late in the year. Better will be needed from this bunch going forward.

Silver Prospector was making his second start around two turns, but only his first try going two turns on dirt. After three grass tries to begin his career, he has improved since switching to dirt. He finished his campaign with two wins in his last three starts, and winning a race over the track where the Derby will be run in a bit more than five months is significant.

In this race, Silver Prospector checked between rivals heading into the first turn and then dropped in to save some ground while racing in the two path. He was angled to the middle of the track nearing the far turn and was four paths wide on that turn while advancing on the leaders. He gained a narrow lead in upper stretch, then fought off challenges from Tiz the Law to his inside and 87-1 FINNICK THE FIERCE to his outside to prevail. He remained in front on the gallop-out.

Finnick the Fierce, who was second, was lightly bumped leaving the gate and went into the first turn near the rear of the pack while in the two to three path. He rallied five paths wide on the far turn, directly outside Silver Prospector, looked as though he was having trouble keeping up a quarter-mile out, but kept plugging away and gained the place while swapping leads in deep stretch. He had never gone two turns before, and in his two prior races had Beyer figures of 41 and 63. He made a significant jump forward on figs in this race, but his prior form should not have put him within hailing distance of the first- and third-place finishers, which calls into question how well Silver Prospector and Tiz the Law ran. Like I said, many questions.

The biggest questions surround Tiz the Law, who finished third, and earned the worst Beyer figure of his career. The fact he was 3-5 against this bunch shows how much he appeared to lay over the field, yet he came up short. He bobbled leaving the gate, then went into the first turn right behind the leader, NEW EAGLE. He stayed in that spot while surrounded by rivals down the backstretch and around the far turn, with no chance to get out, while obviously eager to be let loose if room developed. He had room between New Eagle and SOUTH BEND passing the three-sixteenths pole, but lacked any real acceleration, then swapped to his wrong lead inside the furlong pole. He couldn’t get past Silver Prospector, and lost the place late to Finnick the Fierce.

This was Tiz the Law’s first try around two turns, and he was in traffic for much of the race. But I thought he had every chance the final three-sixteenths, yet couldn’t punch it in against rivals he should have inhaled. If the trouble he encountered is going to be used as an excuse, good luck against a field with 2 1/2 times the runners, also possibly over a sloppy track, also at Churchill Downs, on the first Saturday in May. I’ve also learned the hard way over the years that trips in low-rated races are traps. He has done better in the past, and will need to revert to what was seen in the Champagne to be a serious Derby contender.

ENFORCEABLE, who finished fourth, threw his head about in the early stages and dropped back to last. He was at the back of a well-bunched field heading around the far turn while in the three to four path, checked in upper stretch, swung out, then finished with some interest.

New Eagle, who was fifth, veered in slightly at the start to brush Finnick the Fierce, then set out for the lead while crossing over to the rail. He remained in front through comfortable fractions, had to be pushed along midway on the turn when South Bend got on even terms, turned back that rival, then hung in there until passing the sixteenth pole, when he began to weaken. He had a career-best of 67 going into this race and lost by just 2 1/2 lengths, further evidence this was a low-rated affair.

South Bend, who was sixth, pressed the pace of New Eagle while keeping Tiz the Law boxed in, edged closer on the far turn and was on even terms midway on that turn, volleyed for the lead until nearing the furlong pole, then steadily retreated. He had an ideal trip. This was his first race around two turns after three victories around one turn. He appears to be a late-running sprinter.

FIGHTING SEABEE, who was seventh, followed Tiz the Law around the first turn while saving ground, angled outside Tiz the Law heading into the far turn, raced behind rivals early on the turn, but began to lose ground prior to the quarter pole and had nothing to offer the final furlong.

TWO LAST WORDS, who finished last of eight, raced three wide around the first turn while stalking the pace, bid for the lead three wide on the far turn outside of South Bend and New Eagle, but began to falter before the quarter pole and faded.