Bold Conquest seeks better trip in Claiborne Breeders' Futurity
Some horseplayers analyzing the past performances or the video replay of Bold Conquest’s last race in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs – in which he was outgamed a neck by a less-heralded stablemate – might be inclined to underestimate him when he faces 11 rivals in Saturday’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. But that could prove a costly mistake.
He did well simply to be in position to contend in the stretch. Normally quick from the gate, he broke a length or two slowly, and with a short run to the first turn, he ended up getting stacked up wide and shuffled back.
So, while the eventual winner, Lucky Player, was sitting pretty, pressing slow splits, Bold Conquest was playing catch-up and forced to move early on the second turn to get involved. In addition to his loss of ground into the first turn, this move resulted in him racing 45 feet farther than the winner and 78 feet farther than the horse who saved the most ground, the Breeders’ Futurity longshot Mr. Z, according to Trakus.
Bold Conquest wasn’t the only horse with trouble in the Iroquois. Hashtag Bourbon, who ran third, also broke slowly and fought restraint on the inside before finally finding room in midstretch.
The Breeders’ Futurity, a $500,000 race sponsored by Claiborne Farm, is a Win and You’re In prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. It is contested at 1 1/16 miles on dirt and has a scheduled post time of 5:08 p.m.
Key contenders
Bold Conquest (Last 3 Beyers: 83-72-69)
* Along with Hashtag Bourbon, he is only one of two Breeders’ Futurity entrants to have hit the board in a dirt route.
* Jockey Rosie Napravnik and trainer Steve Asmussen have teamed to win 33 percent of their races together in 2013-14.
Hashtag Bourbon (Last 3 Beyers: 80-78-54)
* Drawn in post 10, loss of ground seems probable, but if nothing else, he should be able to run freely, unlike in the Iroquois, where he was under heavy restraint in traffic.
* The winner of the Mountaineer Juvenile, he has gained familiarity with the new Keeneland dirt track with three quick works over the surface since mid-September.
:: BREEDERS’ CUP 2014: See DRF’s top contenders
:: DRF BREEDING: Pedigree analysis of the Breeders' Futurity
Carpe Diem (Last Beyer: 84)
* A son of Giant’s Causeway who cost $1.6 million at OBS in March, he won his lone start at Saratoga for WinStar Farm and trainer Todd Pletcher, earning an 84 Beyer Speed Figure.
* Though a clear-cut winner by 2 1/2 lengths, he beat a below-average maiden field by Saratoga standards, reflected in part by the third-place finisher, Louisiana Brown, subsequently running second at 1-10 odds at Indiana Grand.
* Is bred to route but stretches out rather drastically, racing three furlongs farther in the Breeders’ Futurity than he did in winning at Saratoga going 5 1/2 furlongs.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 5 Carpe Diem. Trainer Todd Pletcher is 32-18-5-0 with a $3.26 ROI over the past five years on dirt going sprint to route in the second career start following a winning debut. Click for more details. – Dan Illman
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Conquest Tsunami (Last 3 Beyers: 76-76-80)
* Is perfect in four starts, winning three times on Polytrack and once on turf, but his pedigree is geared more toward success on grass than dirt – being by Stormy Atlantic and out of a dam who was a stakes winner on turf.