10/02/2014 10:26PM

DRF Breeding pedigree analysis: Hashtag Bourbon well-equipped for Futurity

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Hashtag Bourbon is well-equipped for the distance of the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland.

Stakes winner Hashtag Bourbon is likely to be among the favorites in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity on a star-studded Saturday afternoon at Keeneland – and with good reason. The colt’s pedigree lends itself nicely to the task of success at 1 1/16 miles.

This will be the second try around two turns for Hashtag Bourbon, who is one of three in the Futurity to exit the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes on Sept. 6 at Churchill Downs; the colt was third in that 1 1/16-mile event after lacking running room around the turn. Also back are runner-up Bold Conquest and fifth-place Mr. Z, the beaten favorite.

Hashtag Bourbon, from the first crop of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, is out of the Robyn Dancer mare Waltzing With Deb, who scored both her career victories around one turn. Despite her own racing background and speed-oriented pedigree, Waltzing With Deb has reliably produced two-turn winners. She is the dam of 12 winners from as many starters – with all of those but Hashtag Bourbon winning at a mile or longer, and seven of those on dirt. The group includes Wild Horses, who was second in the Arkansas Derby at nine furlongs; and Waltzing With Blue, who was stakes-placed at 1 1/16 miles on turf.

[More coverage: Race preview | Breeders' Cup Juvenile rankings]

Bold Conquest is one of two in the field by Curlin, who clearly injecting some stamina into his offspring. The two-time Horse of the Year has sired 13 stakes winners to date; 12 have scored those victories at a mile or longer, with the only outlier a juvenile who has yet to have the opportunity to go two turns. Bold Conquest’s dam One For Jim – multiple stakes-placed at a mile or longer – also produced route winner Dash to the Flash. Bold Conquest’s third dam is Grade 1 winner Jersey Girl, dam of Grade 1 Cigar Mile winner Jersey Town.

Keen Ice, the other Curlin colt in the field, traces to an outstanding female family, counting multiple Grade 1 winner Verrazano as a distant relative. There is plenty of two-turn ability on both the top and bottom sides of his pedigree, but it’s worth noting that much of the female family’s success has come on turf.

Mr. Z had no real excuses in the Iroquois, but if anything qualifies him to bounce back, his pedigree does. The Malibu Moon colt is a half-brother to Ibn Al Nafis, stakes-placed at a mile in Dubai. Their dam is a half-sister to Canadian Horse of the Year Chief Bearhart, Grade 1 winner Explosive Red, and stakes winner Ruby Ransom, dam of Grade 2 winner Strut the Stage. All scored their top victories around two turns – albeit on the turf. Extended family members include Private Zone, who last week repeated in the Grade 1 Vosburgh, and influential sire Mr. Prospector.

Carpe Diem, by Giant’s Causeway, is a half-brother to 2010 Futurity winner J.B.’s Thunder. Dam Rebridled Dreams was a stakes winner around two turns and has produced five winners from as many starters – but most have excelled at shorter distances. With help from the top side of his pedigree, Carpe Diem is a logical longshot here.

Conquest Tsunami is among the more accomplished runners in the field, but he and full brothers Stormy Pacific and Capone have done their best running on Polytrack in Canada. Their dam was a stakes winner on turf.