Trainer Ramon Preciado saddles Midnight Games (#7, ML 5-2) in Sunday's second race at Parx, a six-furlong claiming race. Since Jan., 1, 2014, Preciado is winning at a 50 percent clip when saddling a horse coming off a layoff longer than 180 days, for a return on investment of $4.15. Check out the Positive ROI report as part of DRF Plus. Sign up for DRF Plus here.
After Belmont Park was inundated with rain the past few days, it’s rather unlikely that any of Sunday’s five scheduled turf races – the first, second, fifth, seventh, and ninth – will remain on the grass. There was no official word about that as of this writing, though, and so for purposes of this how-to-play exercise, we can’t assume anything. You know what happens when we do that. Therefore, we shall concentrate on the races we know will be run on the main track.
Rain certainly has put a damper on the Saturday card at Belmont, but there's still value to be had, especially in one of the last pick threes of the afternoon.
Trainer Jeff Bonde saddles Distinctiv Passion (#5, ML 5-1) in Saturday's eighth race at Santa Anita, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Since Jan., 1, 2014, Bonde is winning at a 25 percent clip when saddling a horse switching from turf to dirt, for a return on investment of $2.68. Check out the Positive ROI report as part of DRF Plus. Sign up for DRF Plus here.
The big races come later in the day Sunday at Keeneland, with the Bourbon and Spinster stakes, but it is the opening pick four that begins on Race 2 that has me most intrigued among the multirace wagers.
Short fields limit the options for the Sunday card, but a couple of competitive turf races late in the day present an opportunity for a pick three play (races 6-8).
The weather precludes forming strong opinions on Keeneland’s Saturday card. Friday’s races were off turf, and if Saturday’s stay on – and I’m guessing they do – the going seems likely to be soft. Many horses won’t handle that, and with more rain in the forecast, the main track is likely sloppy again, further complicating matters.
Trainer Stuart Simon saddles Dragon Bay (#3, 12-1) in Friday's fifth race at Woodbine, a one-mile maiden special weight race on turf. Since Jan., 1, 2014, Simon is winning at a 40 percent clip in maiden special weight races, for a return on investment of $7.25. Check out the Positive ROI report as part of DRF Plus. Sign up for DRF Plus here.
Fancy Man (#12, 6-1) returns in Friday's 10th race at Keeneland, a six-furlong claiming race. It will be his first start since finishing fifth by three lengths in an allowance Aug. 22 at Arlington Park. The first-, second-, third-, and fourth-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts. Get the Key Race report as part of DRF Plus. Sign up for DRF Plus here.
Free: How I'd play Santa Anita for Saturday, Oct. 3
