King: Some early thoughts about Breeders’ Cup

A little more than three weeks removed from the Breeders’ Cup, and I’ve got Breeders’ Cup on the brain. It’s inevitable, going to Keeneland, seeing the facilities, and imagining what is to come.

And then we do those weekly summaries for Daily Racing Form, listing the leading contenders for each race. Take a look at those, and one can’t help but get jazzed for the races.

So, before I burst with excitement, here are some early thoughts on the Breeders’ Cup, some of which pass through my head as I head into the Keeneland facility quite regularly.

◗ First off, I think Keeneland is going to prove a great Breeders’ Cut location, provided Lexington gets some decent weather, which is no guarantee in late October. I must admit I was worried about how Keeneland would accommodate a large crowd, knowing how claustrophobic the grandstand can feel when it is swarming with people on a busy Saturday, but based on the layout, there appears to be plenty of fun locations to take in the races. Expect more tailgating to happen at this Breeders’ Cup than at any other in its history.

◗ In speaking Tuesday with Josh Christian, director of racing for the Breeders’ Cup, he said he had been in Europe since the summer, rounding up overseas support for the races. That is fantastic, and such efforts help to keep it truly an international event.

◗ It’s pretty clear that the Euros have listened, too – they aren’t just sending over second stringers. The Arc winner, Golden Horn, is being considered for the Turf, and Legatissimo, an overseas darling, is expected for the Filly and Mare Turf – just to name a couple.

◗ As pleased as I am that they might be coming, when dealing with these Euros on Breeders’ Cup Day, my strategy has long been to avoid betting their favorites, applauding but not backing the greats like Ouija Board and Goldikova who win at short numbers. I just don’t want to take a short price on a horse traveling across the Atlantic Ocean and running under unfamiliar circumstances. I would rather take a shot with middle-priced Europeans if playing the foreigners at all.

◗ So, I guess that means I will be against Legatissimo in the Filly and Mare Turf on that principle. She is as short as even-money in future-book wagering for the race with British bookmakers.

◗ To these eyes, the best last-race U.S. prep by a Breeders’ Cup horse was the performance by Tepin in the First Lady at Keeneland. She was sensational, positioning herself well from a wide draw and then surging when asked in the stretch. There’s no doubt in my mind that on that Keeneland course, if matched against the boys in the Shadwell Turf Mile, she would have beaten them.

Whether she can repeat that effort in a few weeks, we’ll find out. The conditions last weekend were soft, and who knows what the weather during Breeders’ Cup weekend will bring? Regardless, I won’t be overlooking her.

◗ The widespread popularity of American Pharoah and Beholder should create overlaid odds on other top-class horses in the Classic, including but not limited to Frosted and Keen Ice. American Pharoah and Beholder are obviously great horses, but people love them for other reasons, too, with American Pharoah being a Triple Crown winner and Beholder a mare who has already beaten the boys, having done so in the Pacific Classic. At the risk of seeming like the Grinch, with a heart “two sizes too small,” I bet against sentimentality.

◗ One of the horses I’m most excited about backing: Airoforce in the Juvenile Turf. I really liked his race in winning the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland. He was second passing the wire for the first turn, lost a bit of position due to a wide draw on the turn, and then, after surging to the lead at the top of the stretch, he shook off his rivals after seeming to briefly lose focus in early stretch.

◗ Another who is quite interesting: Harmonize in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. I’m still amazed she won Wednesday’s Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland with the trip she had. Normally the type who races on or near the lead, she was sluggish to get into gear early and was far back before rallying wide on the second turn to take command while edging past a stubborn rival.