Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Oct. 10: Picks for QE II Challenge Cup, Knickerbocker, W.Va. Breeders’ Classic
In stark comparison to recent weeks, there is barely a national stakes schedule to speak of Saturday. The most important race of the day is the Grade 1, $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland. But as money goes, that is only the co-richest race of the day along with the $500,000 West Virginia Breeders’ Classic for statebreds at Charles Town.
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup
I am a big fan of Sentiero Italia, who is very, very good. Sentiero Italia followed her solid score in the Lake Placid with an especially impressive victory most recently in the Sands Point, in which she ran away from her field after a show of surprising early positional speed. For me, if we can’t have the brilliant Lady Eli actively commanding the 3-year-old female turf division, then Sentiero Italia certainly is a satisfactory substitute.
Despite that high praise, I have to give Miss Temple City one more shot to beat Sentiero Italia.
Yes, I am going back to Miss Temple City after I picked her and she failed against Sentiero Italia in the Sands Point. Here’s why: Miss Temple City was given absolutely the wrong trip. Moreover, a strong case can be made that Miss Temple City was better than Sentiero Italia when second in the Lake Placid.
In the Lake Placid, Miss Temple City was three to four wide on the first turn and three wide on the far turn when prompting the pace – an amazingly tough trip considering it was only a five-horse field – and yet was beaten only a little more than a length. Sentiero Italia, on the other hand, drew a perfect inside-out trip, though she did pull away impressively late.
In the Sands Point, it was shocking to see Miss Temple City, a filly who does her best work close to the early pace, actually behind the traditionally stretch-running Sentiero Italia early. Even Miss Temple City’s fans know she has no shot of outfinishing Sentiero Italia late. To her credit, Miss Temple City fought gamely to the late stages before weakening.
This time, I expect Miss Temple City to be right with, if not in control of, an early pace that should be deliberate considering how Feathered succeeded in rating in her last start. Miss Temple City, in the ninth start of her career, also will be first-time Lasix. That’s enough for me to give her one more chance.
West Virginia Breeders’ Classic
Russell Road is going for his fourth victory in this race, but he’s 9 now, and his form this year is spotty. I’m also leaning against morning-line favorite Lucy’s Bob Boy, who could be compromised early by the speedy Hidden Canyon.
Charitable Annuity is an up-and-coming 3-year-old in career form, and he’s my play. Charitable Annuity returned from a brief freshening in August a different horse, blowing his fields away in his two starts since. He is facing tougher, but he’ll be a square price and should like the distance.