BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, May 4, 2019, by Bob Fierro & Jay Kilgore
First timers are scarce on Saturday's card but we found a little nugget that might work out.
webmasterMay 03, 2019
First timers are scarce on Saturday's card but we found a little nugget that might work out.
The most notoriously poor post in the Derby is 1. The last horse to win the Derby from the rail was Ferdinand in 1986. That seems like a long time between wins, but given the field size in the Derby, the expected number of winners (without even accounting for post-time odds) from the rail since Ferdinand’s score isn’t much higher than the actual number. In fact, the Kentucky Derby media guide shows horses from post 1 winning the Derby at a 9-percent clip and finishing in the money 20.2 percent of the time since the race began starting from a gate in 1930.
The late all-stakes pick four Saturday at Churchill Downs – not the late, late pick four which encompasses the last four races on the Derby Day card and is not an all-stakes affair – is a juicy sequence.
TimeformUS handicapper David Aragona highlights some contenders on Friday's card at Belmont.
Something new is on the wagering menu for Oaks and Derby Days at Churchill Downs: a two-day pick six that covers all the Grade 1 action. Friday’s races are the La Troienne and Kentucky Oaks, followed by the Humana Distaff, Churchill Downs, Old Forester, and Kentucky Derby on Saturday.
Assessing the pace situation in any race is a critical element of the puzzle known as handicapping, but it’s especially important in a race like the Kentucky Derby. Over the years, many horses with tactical speed have put themselves in ideal positions to sit and pounce before prevailing against their 3-year-old counterparts, but a stalking running style isn’t a prerequisite for Derby glory.
TimeformUS handicapper David Aragona provides his Highlight Horse for Thursday at Belmont Park.
With the utmost confidence in a couple of races in the Friday pick four ending with the Kentucky Oaks – and a lesser amount of confidence, you might say, in the other two – I will take a crack at this sequence with two singles and two wide spreads.
If allowed only one word to describe the 2019 Kentucky Derby, that word could be “parity.” Bob Baffert, who trains three of the favorites for this Derby – Game Winner, Roadster, and Improbable – used that descriptor in a recent media teleconference. And by many measures, the term fits.
TimeformUS handicapper David Aragona highlights some contenders on Thursday's card at Belmont Park.