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Trip Notes for May 4-5, 2019: Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks, and more

Michael Hammersly|May 06, 2019
Serengeti Empress
Debra A. Roma Serengeti Empress, with Jose Ortiz aboard, wins the Kentucky Oaks by 1 3/4 lengths on Friday.

May 3

Churchill
Eight Belles (race 5)

COMMENT: Rain resulted in the main track listed as sloppy and sealed Break Even was unbeaten and untested in three starts but you weren’t really sure about where she stacked up against top sprinting peers. Well, we know now as the daughter of Country Day was again a smashing winner. She shot out of the gate to go right out to a clear lead, soon had a commanding lead going down the backstretch while well off the rail, set fast splits and maintained her big advantage all the way around as she never really had a nervous moment. The Grade 1 Acorn at a mile on Belmont Stakes day June 8 may be next. Bell’s the One, back to one turn after fading to seventh (last) in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland April 6, bided her time early, steadily advanced, came with a nice run between horses and finished well, though she was never really on the winner’s radar. Queen of Beas, freshened since winning her last two at Gulfstream in January, was well back from the start, started a wide run on the turn, got boxed in between foes into the lane, got out of that traffic and kept to her task decently to get third. Mother Mother, twice Grade 1 placed in Southern California and coming off a sharp second when beaten a head in the slop in the Grade 3 Beaumont at Keeneland April 7, was a bit disappointing as the $450,000 daughter of Pioneerof the Nile stalked the pace, moved closer going into the far turn as if poised to make a run but came up empty.

Churchill
Edgewood (race 6)

COMMENT: Rain resulted in the turf course being listed as good. This marked the highly anticipated return of Newspaperofrecord, who demolished rivals in three starts last year including a laughingly easy win in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies turf here Nov. 2. For about 7 furlongs this looked like a reprise of that as Newspaperofrecord was in complete command. However, Concrete Rose, a high-quality proven filly in her own right, had other ideas and was a dazzling winner herself. Concrete Rose, winner of three of her prior four but eighth to Newspaperofrecord in the Breeders’ Cup, was coming off a game win in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa March 9. Here she bided her time as Newspaperofrecord held a clear lead while setting modest splits, remained well behind the favorite to the far turn, came out for room turning for home, pitched wider still into the lane, came with a rush to blow by the favorite and draw clear for the impressive win. She made that powerful run despite being on her wrong lead as well. She could eye the Grade 3 Regret here June 15 or go to Belmont for the Grade 3 Wonder Again June 6, with her long-term goal being the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks July 6. Newspaperofrecord, the 1-5 favorite making her first start since her Breeders’ Cup romp, broke smartly from her rail slot, went right out to a clear lead, came off the hedge some, held a clear lead while setting a modest pace, appeared poised to break the race open when clearing off further into the lane but suddenly came under a ride at the eighth pole and had no answer for the winner’s charge while still finishing well clear of third. This may temper the prospects of going to England for a Group 1, and trainer Chad Brown had said earlier the Belmont Oaks is very much a goal. Winter Sunset was last early, remained there going down the backstretch, moved closer on the far turn while wide and kept to her task well to just get third, though she was no danger to the top two. Cambier Parc, a $1,250,000 daughter of Medaglia d’Oro and also from the Brown barn, won her only two starts on turf, both at Gulfstream this winter including the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride. Here she sat back just in front of Winter Sunset while saving ground, moved closer on the turn but wasn’t able to muster a run and got edged for third.

Churchill
Alysheba (race 7)

COMMENT: Main track had been upgraded to good. Trainer Bob Baffert has said he believes McKinzie to be the best older horse in the land, though his two starts this year saw him finish second in each. He made amends for that here with a powerful victory. From his rail slot he broke well, moved up to contest a slow pace with Tom’s d’Etat to his immediate right, had his head in front going into the backstretch but soon relented pacesetting duties to that rival while still on the rail, looked in a bit of trouble on the far turn when he lost some ground while still inside but then found a seam, came off the rail, surged around Tom’s d’Etat to grab the lead and drew off to win with complete authority. He didn’t appear comfortable inside but once he got out the race was over. Baffert had earlier said the Grade 1 Met Mile at Belmont June 8 was a target. Tom’s d’Etat came back after a year and half layoff to win two straight including a stakes at the Fair Grounds Dec. 22 but then found the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup waters at Gulfstream Park Jan. 26 too deep. Freshened since, he showed speed out of the gate to volley up front early with McKinzie while keeping that rival hemmed in along the rail, took the lead going down the backstretch, edged further in front turning for home, was no match for the winner when that rival came out, around him and past, but kept to his task well to be a clear second. Seeking the Soul, who has done some of his best work here (three of his six wins) and coming off an eighth in the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup March 30, lagged back, as is his custom, while well off the fence, remained wide and in the clear, pitched wider still and kept to his task but was never a danger to the winner and actually lost ground to the runner-up in the final furlong. Instilled Regard, a $1,050,000 son of Arch who ran fourth in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby here last year and moved back to dirt after a couple good turf outings, bided his time while between horses, remained there to the far turn, came out for room into the lane but lacked the needed rally.

Churchill
La Troienne (race 8)

COMMENT: Main track was upgraded to fast. She’s a Julie had won multiple Grade 3’s and was Grade 1 placed, and the daughter of Elusive Quality took down a top prize here with a show of courage. From her rail slot she stalked just behind pacesetters Awe Emma and Secret Spice, remained on the fence just behind those two with rivals to her right keeping her boxed in, remained just behind Awe Emma who started to tire turning for home, move out around that rival, pitched wider still in the lane, took dead aim on leader Secret Spice, came up on that gal’s right, got pushed wider out still as Spice was a bit green in the lane but persevered to edge that rival in the final few strides. With top-class stablemate Midnight Bisou pointing for the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps on Belmont Stakes day June 8 this filly might instead point for the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis here on Stephen Foster day June 15. Secret Spice, coming off a smart win in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile at Santa Anita March 30, did everything right but just missed. She broke sharply from her outside slot, ranged up alongside Awe Emma with that rival on the rail, hounded that rival throughout, got the better of her turning for home, opened up into the lane as if ready to go on to victory, raced greenly as she weaved some in the lane, was engaged by She’s a Julie to her outside, fought gamely with that rival while drifting out some but couldn’t quite finish with her. She could return to Santa Anita for the Grade 2 Santa Maria June 1 or await the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar July 28, both at this same 1 1/16-mile trip. Blue Prize, favored having won three of six here and making her first start since a good fourth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff here Nov. 3, broke well, was between horses a couple lengths off the lead, remained between horses while under a hold going down the backstretch, advanced on the turn for home to loom a threat but flattened out a bit as she wasn’t really a danger to the top two in the final furlong and only just held third. She might do better with more ground, meaning the Fleur de Lis at 1 1/8 miles could be next. Mopotism lagged back while racing wide, remained wide throughout, came with a steady wide run in the lane to nearly catch Blue Prize while never a threat to the top two. Divine Miss Grey, second in the Grade 2 Falls City here Nov. 22 and coming off a big win in the Heavenly Prize at Aqueduct March 10, stalked the pace while wide, remained wide going to the far turn but then came up empty.

Churchill
Twin Spires Turf Sprint (race 10)

COMMENT: Turf course now listed as firm. World of Trouble already figured to be a heavy favorite based on five wins in his last five starts, the lone loss actually being his best effort when a sharp second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Things were made easier here with the scratch of main rival Bound for Nowhere as World of Trouble, the 1-5 favorite, dominated things. He broke decently, went right to the lead, took some pressure from Angaston but was able to set modest splits, opened up turning for home and into the lane and really didn’t have a nervous moment thereafter. The Grade 1 Jaipur (yes, there’s now a Grade 1 turf sprint aside from the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint) on Belmont Stakes day June 8 is likely next, though trainer Jason Servis said if that was coming back too quickly they could instead await the Grade 1 Vanderbilt at 6 furlongs on dirt at Saratoga July 27. Smart Remark, a well-beaten last of six in an optional claimer in mud at Keeneland April 12, his first start in four months, moved back to turf and bounced back as he bided his time early and finished well between horses in the lane to win a blanket photo for second, though he was never a danger to the winner. Chaos Theory, a rallying fourth in the Grade 2 Shakertown at Keeneland April 6, sat last early, remained there to the far turn, came with a nice run in the lane and nearly got second, though he was never a threat to the big winner. Will Call, the defending champ, showed enough speed to stalk the early pace while staying wide and in the clear, remained wide on the far turn, swung wider still into the lane to briefly look a threat for second but faded in the final furlong.

Churchill
Kentucky Oaks (race 11)

COMMENT: Main track was still listed as fast. You had to be worried when Serengeti Empress faded so badly (in fact, was eased) in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds as the 3-10 favorite after reportedly bleeding. She’d worked strongly since but concerns had to remain. Well, she dispatched with such worries as she led all the way to gamely prevail. Oddly enough, in a race seemingly filled with speed, she proved quickest, going right to the lead taking some early pressure from Motion Emotion, soon cleared off from the field, setting a solid pace, maintained her edge into the lane, looked in trouble when Liora got to her hip by midstretch but gamely keeping to her task to keep that hard-trying rival at bay in the final furlong. A great training job by Tom Amoss to have her primed for such an assignment off such a debacle. Off this something like the Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont June 29 may be her next target, though if she’s doing well they could come back in the Grade 1 Acorn at a shorter trip (a mile) on Belmont Stakes day there June 8. Liora, winner of the Grade 2 Golden Rod here in the fall and coming off seconds in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra (to Serengeti Empress) and the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks (to Street Band), bided her time early, came with a smart run on the far turn to reach contention, just behind the eventual winner, doggedly kept after that foe but just couldn’t quite get to her while finishing far clear of the others. The Acorn is reportedly next. Lady Apple, winner of her last three, all at Oaklawn including the Grade 3 Fantasy April 12, stalked in third from the start, moved closer on the far turn but was basically one-paced to the line from there. Champagne Anyone, winner of the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, was away slowly, then in tight to end up toward the back of the field, remained well back to the far turn but came with a smart run to almost get fourth. The trouble surely cost her getting closer. Bellafina, favored off three straight wins in Southern California including a romp in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks but a so-so fourth here in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in the fall, her only other start outside of Southern California, bided her time early, came with a nice run to get within reach of the leader turning for home but then flattened out. Could be this $800,000 daughter of Quality Road just doesn’t take her game on the road. Trainer Simon Callaghan said, too, that while she’s had success routing he thinks this run may be evidence she’s better playing a shorter, one-turn game, hence he’ll freshen her and target the Grade 1 Test at 7 furlongs at Saratoga Aug. 3. Jaywalk, the reigning juvenile filly champ but coming off a couple modest outings this year, came in sharply at the start to hinder Positive Spirit (who stumbled and lost her rider), settled into stride while stalking the pace but was basically one-paced throughout. For coming in so hard at the start she was disqualified from sixth and placed 13th. It appears she just hasn’t progressed from 2 to 3. Street Band, so impressive winning the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks March 23, was in tight early, ended up positioned midpack while wide but never mustered a run. Restless Rider, in the exacta in all seven starts including a sharp second in the Golden Rod here in the fall and a smart second in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland last time out April 6, was midpack at the first call but soon gave way to be at the back of the pack and never made a move, making you wonder if something went awry. Positive Spirit, coming off a solid second in the Grade 2 Gazelle at Aqueduct April 6, stumbled badly at the start when Jaywalk to her right came over into her at the break, losing her rider. Both horse and rider appeared to be okay after the incident.

May 4

Belmont
Sheepshead Bay (race 4)

COMMENT: Heavy rain Friday and continuing showers this day resulted in the inner turf course being listed as soft. But imagine that, a graded stakes turf race for distaffers won by Chad Brown. In this case, it was Santa Monica, likely from his second string, who handled the trip and going to prove a smart winner. She bided her time early as Giant Zinger set a slow pace, remained toward the back of the small field to the far turn, came out just a bit for clear sailing, blasted around the field to take command, blew the race open into the lane and while the gap was narrowed by a game runner-up she didn’t really have a nervous moment in the lane. To give you an idea how slow the course played her final time was more than 15 seconds slower than the course mark. She’s a stayer so maybe the Grade 2 New York at 1 1/4 miles here June 7 is next, particularly since Brown’s top stayer, champion Sistercharlie, remains sidelined. Semper Sententiae, third in the Grade 3 The Very One at Gulfstream March 2, stalked the pace, moved closer while wide on the far turn, had no answer when the eventual winner blew past but kept to her task well to close the gap in the final furlong, though she was never really a danger to the winner. Giant Zinger went right to the lead, set a dawdling pace but had no answer when the top two went on with it in the lane. Lady Montdore was disappointing. Making her first start since fading to seventh in the Grade 3 Long Island on Aqueduct turf Nov. 24, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro seemed in a good spot sitting second behind the pacesetter who set slow fractions but came up empty when it mattered.

Belmont
Ft. Marcy (race 10)

COMMENT: Inner course remains listed as soft, though the rain had ceased by post time. Chad Brown was expected to win this as he sent out a trio, led by Robert Bruce, the defending champ, last year’s Grade 1 Arlington Million winner and making his first start since finishing seventh in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf but it was new import Olympico who reveled in the going and posted the upset. Last seen posting a stakes win on soft turf in France Nov. 11, the French-bred tossed his head at the start to get away slowly, sat last early as Dr. Edgar set a modest pace, remained last to the top of the lane, came out for room and finished resolutely to roll past the leaders inside the eighth pole and draw clear. Off this the Grade 1 Manhattan on the Belmont Stakes undercard June 8 may be next, though Brown had originally said that was a target for Robert Bruce, and big Grade 1 Old Forester Turf Classic winner Bricks and Mortar could also point for the Manhattan. There’s also the Grade 1 United Nations at 1 3/8 miles at Monmouth June 22 as an option. Dr. Edgar stumbled a bit at the start so he was outbroke by Robert Bruce, soon was up alongside that foe and took over pacesetting duties on the clubhouse turn, set a modest pace with Robert Bruce to his inside, cleared off a bit going down the backstretch, was confronted by Robert Bruce who had taken back, come off the rail and up to this rival’s outside, looked in deep trouble when Robert Bruce edged past into the lane, kept to his task resolutely and while no match for the winner gamely held the place. Cullum Road sat midpack, moved closer going down the backstretch, came out into the lane and fought on well to just miss getting second. Robert Bruce broke very sharply from his rail slot, actually ending up on the lead going into the clubhouse turn, relinquished pacesetting duties to Dr. Edgar, took back a bit, came off the rail and move out to get outside Dr. Edgar, came under a ride on the far turn, actually pushed his way to the lead by midstretch but then came up empty in the final half-furlong. Surely the turf condition worked against him as he’d struggled in the bog-like going at the Breeders’ Cup as well. So long as he exits this race in good shape he’ll likely target the Manhattan, which Brown earlier said was the original plan of attack.

Belmont
Westchester (race 11)

COMMENT: Main track was listed as sloppy though the rain had stopped. Nicodemus was coming off a decent fourth in the longer Grade 3 Excelsior at Aqueduct April 6. Not only was he shortening up, he caught a sloppy track he liked as his win there March 10 also came in slop, posting the upset. The son of Candy Ride stalked in third as Stan the Man moved out to a clear lead, continued to stalk that foe through fast splits, doggedly went after him in the lane to Stan the Man’s outside, caught him by the sixteenth pole and just edged past in the final strides. This could earn him a shot at the Grade 1 Met Mile on the Belmont Stakes undercard June 8, though that spot will be much, much tougher with the likes of McKinzie, Mitole, Coal Front and others targeting that. Still, if it’s sloppy again he’ll handle it. Stan the Man, freshened since dueling and fading to sixth in the Stymie at Aqueduct March 9, also liked the going (had won three of four on wet tracks coming into this), shot out to a clear lead, set fast splits while still well clear, gamely fought back when confronted by Nicodemus by midstretch and just missed in a big try. Sunny Ridge, fourth in the Stymie but who showed big mile ability last fall when second in the Grade 2 Kelso and third in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile, was away slowly to be last, remained there to the far turn while saving ground, started to make a run turning for home, loomed a threat by midstretch but couldn’t quite get to the top pair in the final furlong. Prince Lucky, the heavy favorite off two romping mile wins at Gulfstream, the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope and Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile, stalked in fourth, moved closer on the far turn as if poised to make a run but then came up empty. He ran third in his only prior wet-track outing though he was beaten a city block that day so he may not have enjoyed the footing. Or, maybe he just adores the Gulfstream strip.

Churchill
Humana Distaff (race 6)

COMMENT: Despite Friday’s rain the main track was listed as fast. Mia Mischief had done some of her best work on this track including winning last year’s Grade 2 Eight Belles, so it was no surprise the $300,000 daughter of Into Mischief ran big again here under the Twin Spires. Coming off a second in the Carousel at Oaklawn April 6 she broke alertly to duel with Amy’s Challenge who was to her outside, continued to hound that rival through strong splits, took over from that foe into the lane, quickly opened up and gave herself enough of a buffer to keep hard-charging 9-10 favorite Marley’s Freedom at bay in the final furlong. She figure to target all the big distaff sprints. Marley’s Freedom, the heavy favorite off a string of good outings and cutting back a bit in distance after running second in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile at Santa Anita March 30 (to Secret Spice, who came back to be a sharp second in Friday’s Grade 1 La Troienne here), bided her time early, as usual, pitched wide into the lane and finished strongly and while unable to really scare the winner finished far clear of the rest. Amy’s Challenge broke sharply, dueled early with the eventual winner who was to her inside, was still in the pace battle turning for home while well off the rail but then couldn’t keep up with the top two in the lane. Spiced Perfection, coming off a game win in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland April 6, stalked the pace, loomed a threat turning for home while wide but flattened out. Talk Veuve to Me, a big winner of an optional claimer at Keeneland April 11 in her first start of the year, stalked the early pace but was done by the far turn.

Churchill
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (race 7)

COMMENT: Turf course listed as firm. Beau Recall was good enough to be a Grade 2 winner in Southern California in the spring of 2018 but then saw her form sour. She moved to the Fair Grounds and got back on track, culminating with maybe the best race of her career here. The daughter of Sir Prancealot sat last early as Take These Chains set the early pace, remained at the back as Capla Temptress took over pacesetting duties, was still well back on the far turn, swung very wide turning for home and powered home to reel in clear leader Got Stormy in the final half-furlong and edge clear. Off this a shot at the Grade 1 Just a Game on Belmont Stakes Day June 8 could be next. Got Stormy sat midpack, moved closer on the turn, put in a strong run into the lane to grab the lead, opened up as if ready to go on to victory but proved no match for the winner as she got a little tired in the final half-furlong. Daddy Is a Legend, making her first start since a sharp second in the Grade 1 Matriarch at Del Mar Dec. 2, lagged back, steadily advanced to the turn, loomed a big threat into the lane, couldn’t finish with the winner but kept to her task decently and just missed catching the runner-up. Environs, a highly regarded Chad Brown runner who romped over allowance foes in her U.S. debut at Gulfstream April 5, broke slowly, sat back just in front of the eventual winner, moved wide on the far turn and came with a decent rally but wasn’t ever really a threat. Precieuse, a former Group 1 winner in France now in Brown’s care and the favorite here off a smart win in the Grade 3 Honey Fox at Gulfstream March 2, was a bit disappointing as she bided her time, made a mild wild move on the turn as if ready to contend but then flattened out. Proctor’s Ledge, the defending champ and coming off a sharp second in the stakes at Gulfstream March 30, her first start of the year, stalked the pace while saving ground, was still in the hunt turning for home, had traffic issues in the stretch and was unable to get involved.

Churchill
Churchill Downs (race 8)

COMMENT: Mitole has always hinted at big-time ability and the son of Eskendereya showed he’s indeed a top sprinter as he notched his first Grade 1 win. He broke alertly to press the pace while outside as Bobby’s Wicked One was quickest along the rail and Promises Fulfilled ran with him while a few lanes off the rail just to the inside of Mitole. Mitole was content to press those two through strong splits while wider out with Wild Shot to his outside, ranged up to make it a four-way pace battle on the turn, led a three-way fight for the lead into the lane while widest of the three as Wild Shot fell away, battled gamely, finally put away Bobby’s Wicked One in deep stretch and drew clear. This certainly proves he’s no need-the-lead type. Now that he’s stretched out from 6 furlongs to this 7-furlong trip could the Grade 1 Met Mile on Belmont Stakes day June 8 be next? That would provide a mouthwatering clash with top elder McKinzie. If he doesn’t look at that longer trip he still ranks as the top sprinter in the land, as long as champion Roy H remains on the bench. Bobby’s Wicked One, coming off three straight big wins including the Grade 3 Commonwealth at this same trip at Keeneland April 6, proved quickest as he broke alertly, went right to the rail as he set a strong pace with Promises Fulfilled a few lanes to his right and Mitole a bit further out, held the fence as Fulfilled pressed him through strong splits to the far turn, remained on the rail as Fulfilled, Mitole and Wild Shot were four abreast on the turn, cut the corner as it him, Fulfilled and Mitole three abreast into the lane, battled on bravely and only grudgingly gave way to the winner in the final half-furlong while gamely holding second. Promises Fulfilled, fourth in the Grade 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen March 30, broke well, showed his customary speed between horses to be on the pace with Bobby’s Wicked One a few lanes to his inside and Mitole to his outside, dueled with One to the top of the lane, was still in it between horses before relenting in the final furlong. Whitmore, fourth in this last year and coming off a second to Mitole in the Grade 3 Count Fleet at Oaklawn April 13, seemed to get his trip as he bided his time a few lengths off the lead, moved closer to the dueling leaders on the far turn as if poised to make a run but lacked the needed punch to challenge in the lane.

Churchill
American Turf (race 9)

COMMENT: Turf course listed as firm, though some light rain fell at post time. Digital Age won his first two starts, both at Tampa Bay, including a stakes win March 9, and both times coming from far back after slow starts. He was stepping up in class and broke slowly again but neither hurdle mattered as he rallied to give Chad Brown yet another graded stakes win on turf. He broke slowly and was content to lag back while saving ground as favorite A Thread of Blue set a modest pace, remained there going down the backstretch, started to advance into the far turn while still inside, came off the rail turning for home, found a seam between horses to move through going wider out for clear sailing, started a modest rally, didn’t look as though he was going to get there but used long strides to gobble up the ground late and roll past the leaders in the final half-furlong. He looks long-fused so the Grade 1 Belmont Derby July 6 figures his prime target, and maybe he’ll await that or use the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge at Belmont June 1 as a springboard. A Thread of Blue, the favorite off three straight wins including the Grade 3 Palm Beach at Gulfstream March 2, ran too good to lose. He broke well from his rail slot, went right to the lead, took some pressure while setting a solid pace, rebuffed a few rivals turning for home while staying on the fence, opened up and battled gamely to the line but just couldn’t quite fend off the winner. Social Paranoia, coming off a romping maiden win at Gulfstream March 30, his first start of the year, stalked the pace, moved closer on the turn for home, ducked down to the rail, gamely went after A Thread of Blue to that rivals inside, battled hard but just couldn’t quite get past ‘Blue while the winner was surging past a few lanes wider out. Seismic Wave ran well in defeat as the son of Pulpit, winner of his last two on Gulfstream turf including a stakes March 30, was well back early, made headway on the turn, pitched very wide into the lane and finished well toward the outside to end up just behind the top three. Avie’s Flatter, smart winner of the Grade 3 Transylvania on turf at Keeneland April 5, his first start of the year and fourth win in five starts, sat midpack from the start, swung wide on the far turn to reach contention, loomed a big threat into the lane while still wide but flattened out. Forever Mo, a close second to Digital Age in the Columbia at Tampa March 9 and closer second to Seismic Wave in the Cutler Bay at Gulfstream March 30, wasn’t nearly as sharp this time as he sat midpack early, was still there to the far turn but then gave way.

Churchill
Pat Day (race 10)

COMMENT: Main track still listed as fast though some light rain continues. Mr. Money wasn’t disgraced in three straight graded stakes routes but the son of two-time Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents cut back to a mile here and may have found his calling as he won with authority. He broke well, moved to the inside to stalk as Mr. Money Bags set a solid pace, remained inside to the far turn as he moved up right behind the leaders, moved out for room, surged to the lead and asserted himself from there, opening up to win with ease. Apparently he likes it here, too, as both career wins have come here. He may well try longer and tougher again and go for the Grade 1 Preakness at Pimlico May 18. Hog Creek Hustle, who finished eighth just behind Mr. Money in fifth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds March 23 and like that foe cut back in distance here, was well back early while well off the rail, moved in tandem with the winner turning for home, came through between horses to continue his run, was no match for the winner but kept on well to get second. Dream Maker broke poorly, veering out at the start, ending up at the back of the pack. He gradually worked his way forward, came under a hold as he was a bit too eager going to the far turn, swung out very wide on the turn and into the lane and finished well to get third, a nice result considering the start. Instagrand, a $1.2 million son of Into Mischief and the heavy favorite after being considered a potential big player in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby just a month ago, cut back in distance and dropped for this after a third in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, broke well, stalked while between horses well off the rail, seemed in a good spot going into the far turn but suddenly lost position, came under a ride into the lane and had no response. It may be back to the drawing board.

Churchill
Old Forester Turf Classic (race 11)

COMMENT: Turf course listed as good as light rain continued. Bricks and Mortar came into this the top-rated turf horse in the land, though the margin didn’t seem all that big. He remedied that situation here as the Chad Brown trainee was a powerful winner, making it eight wins in 10 starts (ran third in his only two losses and both times was beaten less than a length). From his outside post he broke well, took back so as to be able to move toward the inside and avoid getting hung out to try, successfully did that though he ended up well back as Markitoff set a slow pace, remained there while a few lanes off the rail, was still well back going into the far turn, was asked for run on the turn, advanced into the lane, pitched out for room and powered home to reel in the leaders. The Grade 1 Manhattan on the Belmont Stakes undercard June 8 could be next. It would be his first try at 1 1/4 miles but the way he powered home to win the 1 3/16-mile Pegasus World Cup Turf gave every indication he’d relish 10 furlong. Of course, trainer Brown has others (Robert Bruce, Olympico, Raging Bull) who could go there as well so he has all sorts of options. Qurbaan continued his fine form. Getting blinkers after a good third in the Grade 1 Maker’s 46 Mile at Keeneland April 12, he stalked while inside, came off the rail on the turn, went after then-leader Clyde’s Image into the lane, grabbed the lead from that guy who was to his inside, briefly held a clear lead but couldn’t withstand the winner in the final half-furlong. Considering the inside was not the place to be on this turf course this day he ran quite well again. Clyde’s Image, a game second in the Maker’s 46 Mile at 46-1, showed he’s the real deal as he ran well again as he dogged early pacesetter Markitoff, took over from that foe on the far turn, gamely battled to midstretch before succumbing to the top two. Raging Bull fully flattered the Maker’s 46 Mile form as after running fourth in that race he was fourth again here but ran deceptively well. From his inside slot he bided his time midpack, looked in trouble going down the backstretch as he lost position and fell back, came off the fence on the far turn, followed his winning stablemate and finished well, albeit too late to be a factor. As noted the inside wasn’t the place to be on this turf course this day so his effort was quite smart considering he was inside for more than 6 furlongs. Synchrony, a good third behind Bricks and Mortar in the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial at the Fair Grounds last time out March 23 and third in this last year, added blinkers but didn’t show his best stuff as he was far back early, was wide on the first turn, remained wide while trying to advance on the far turn but couldn’t get involved. Ticonderoga, part of the Brown three-headed monster coming off a big return win over optional claimers at Gulfstream March 14, was jostled when boxed in soon after he tart to get away poorly, moved toward the inside, saved ground while well back but was unable to make a dent. He’s got talent but these waters may be a tad too deep. He can surely do damage in the right spots, avoiding the beasts.

Churchill
Kentucky Derby (race 12)

COMMENT: Main track was listed as sloppy and sealed as heavy rain started after the Old Forester Turf Classic. History was made as Maximum Security, who led all the way and seemed to post his fifth win in as many starts, was disqualified after almost a half-hour of review and placed 17th for coming out into the lane and impeding War of Will, Long Range Toddy and Bodexpress. The beneficiary of the first disqualification of an unofficial winner in Derby history (Dancer's Image was disqualified in 1968 after failing a drug test) was Country House, giving Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott his first Derby win. Country House, a well-beaten third behind Omaha Beach and Improbable in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn April 13, settled midpack while wide after breaking from his far-outside post, remained wide as he advanced on the far turn, got shoved out a bit when traffic inside him came out but never lost stride, came with a strong run into the lane to challenge for the lead and finished well, though he couldn’t quite get to the winner to his inside. He was awarded the win with the disqualification of Maximum Security, though he was only slightly bumped from the traffic issues to his inside into the lane so he wasn’t really affected. The Grade 1 Preakness at Pimlico May 18 is reportedly next. Code of Honor, a well-beaten third behind Maximum Security in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, showed a bit more speed than usual, sitting a few lengths off the lead while saving ground, remained there throughout, cut the corner into the lane to briefly grab the lead when Maximum Security and War of Will vacated the rail, went head to head with Maximum Security while on the fence but then couldn’t stay with the top two in the final furlong. He was elevated from third to second with the disqualification. He may go to the Preakness as well, though trainer Shug McGaughey said he doesn’t want to cook him and miss some summer opportunities. Tacitus, Mott’s other entrant, coming off a game win in the Grade 2 Wood, steadied after the start to be well back, weaved his way through traffic, moved well off the rail into the lane and ran on smartly while wider out than Improbable. He was moved up to third after the disqualification. The Grade 1 Belmont June 8 is his target. Improbable, second in the Arkansas Derby, sat to the right of Code of Honor between horses, remained in that box to the far turn, finally found clear sailing as he moved out into the lane, finished well but just wasn’t good enough. Game Winner was away very slowly to be far back, raced wide to try and get into the race, remained very wide down the backstretch as he advanced, stayed very wide on the turn and into the lane and finished with good energy. Considering the slow start and very wide trip he ran quite well. War of Will, last seen suffering a minor injury when ninth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, ran quite well. He broke sharply from his rail slot, remained there on Maximum Security’s heels while under a hold, continued to travel well, came off the inside turning for home as if poised to go around Maximum Security, had to steady sharply when Security veered into his path, got going again to be challenging for the lead in the stretch but finally relented in the final half-furlong. It was a terrific job by his trainer Mark Casse to get him ready for this after the setback and layoff. Casse said the horse came out of the race well and may go to the Preakness. Vekoma, winner of the Grade 2 Blue Grass, stalked the pace, seemed in a good spot turning for home but came up empty. Roadster, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, was well back early, very wide throughout and unable to make a dent. Long Range Toddy pressed the pace, loomed a threat into the lane outside of Maximum Security but had to steady hard when War of Will was forced into him by the veering-out Maximum Security, lost his action and gave way. Maximum Security, romping winner of his first four starts including the Grade 1 Florida Derby, went right to the lead, set a brisk pace under pressure from Long Range Toddy and Bodexpress to his outside and War of Will on his tail, held a narrow lead to the far turn, veered out suddenly into the lane, was quickly corrected to move back to the inside and stayed on with a ton of heart to repel his challenges be first under the wire. He was disqualified for veering out into the lane and placed 17th. It’s too bad he got disqualified as he was the best horse but it looked like the right call. He’ll reportedly ship to Monmouth and prepare for whatever is next, though owner Gary West said the Preakness was highly unlikely.

Santa Anita
Senorita (race 3)

COMMENT: Maxim Rate, a $235,000 daughter of Exchange Rate, just failed to catch Hostess when second a nose behind that filly in the Grade 3 Providencia here April 6. That was just her second career start so that experience and cutting back a full furlong did the trick as she got her revenge for trainer Simon Callaghan. She showed the speed to sit second as Ladymidtown went out to a clear early lead, slowly moved closer to that rival who set modest splits, engaged that foe into the lane had to battle to subdue that rival, got the better of her by midstretch and then gamely kept hard-trying Lady Prancealot at bay in the final half-furlong. Lady Prancealot, third just another nose behind Maxim Rate in the Providencia was devoid of speed, as is her custom, sitting last from the start. She bided her time at the back, started a run on the turn while moving wide, finished well but just couldn’t quite get to the winner. Ladymidtown, who faded to ninth in the Providencia at 81-1 popped up with easily her best effort as she went right to the lead, set a modest pace under some pressure from Maxim Rate, battled back when hooked by that foe into the lane and only relented in the final half-furlong. Hostess, rallying winner of the Providencia in her first start in the U.S. and like the winner trained by Callaghan, sat back just in front of Lady Prancealot, didn’t accelerate as early or as strongly as that rival, got into contention by midstretch but flattened out a bit thereafter. These four could all get together again in the Grade 3 Honeymoon at 1 1/8 miles here June 1.

May 5

Belmont
Ruffian (race 8)

COMMENT: The day started with rain, resulting in the main track being listed as sloppy and sealed and it remained that way through this race. That didn’t matter in the slightest to Come Dancing as her two prior wet-track outings resulted in two big wins. She already appeared to hold the aces coming off a monster win in the Grade 3 Distaff at Aqueduct April 5, earning an amazing 114 Beyer Speed Figure. As the overwhelming 1-5 favorite she broke a step slow from her outside post but quickly pulled her way up to sit second of pacesetter Frostie Anne, remained there while staying well off the rail, bided her time to the far turn, moved up very easily to get alongside the pacesetter, had no trouble taking over from that rival while still seemingly in a mere gallop, was asked for some run into the lane, quickly put the race to bed and won easily while geared down. Heady stuff. Off this big win a shot at the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps on Belmont Stakes day June 8 could be next, though that could mean a run-in with the best of the division, Midnight Bisou, and possibly even comebacking champion Monomoy Girl. Pacific Wind, making her first start since finishing third in the Grade 3 Go for Wand at Aqueduct Dec. 1 (Come Dancing ran second almost seven lengths ahead of her), sat behind the pacesetter while staying inside, remained on the rail to the midpoint on the far turn, quickly came off the inside to move in behind the eventual winner, was asked for run to try and challenge the winner, proved no match but ran on well for second. The winner is far too much for her but this was a good run and showed she can do damage in the right spot. Pink Sands was away a bit slowly but still got a decent stalking position between horses not far off the pace, made a run into the lane and while no danger to the top two kept to her task to get third. Frostie Annie pulled her usual antics before the start (reluctant to load; had to be blindfolded), broke sharply, went right to the lead, set a solid pace a couple lanes off the rail, was unable to go with the winner turning for home and gave way once headed.

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