Happy New Year! We ended our Pix of 2014 with a spot-on selection of Reconfigure, who got up in the last stride to nail his maiden win in his debut at Gulfstream to pay $22.80. His was one of 28 victories in maiden races by BreezeFigs graduates over the holiday week, and three former maidens took honors in stakes races.
It might be a new year, but for many horseplayers, the goal remains the same as last year: beat the favorite whenever you can. I will attempt to do just that at the three major racing venues of Gulfstream Park, Aqueduct, and Santa Anita, as all will be offering excellent cards on this first Saturday of 2015.
The Grade 3 Dania Beach is one of five stakes for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream in south Florida, while the Grade 3 Jerome is the first graded race of the year in New York. In California, the Grade 2 San Gabriel is the second of back-to-back graded events on the Santa Anita card.
When you analyze any race through the Beyer Speed Figure prism, there are a few questions that must always be asked:
1. What Beyer will it take to win the race?
2. Which horses have earned the figure in the past?
3. What are the styles of the horses in this race, and how is that likely to impact which horses can run back to their best Beyers?
SHOTGUN LOVE
Trainer: Dominick Schettino
Last race: Dec. 27, 7th
Finish: 3rd by 1/2
Beyer: 46
Half-sister to 4-for-4 stakes winner Lovely Syn broke a step slow from the rail, rushed through to get the early lead, and held it to deep stretch while neglecting to change leads until a sixteenth out in a promising debut.
MICKS MIRACLE
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Last race: Dec. 26, 4th
Finish: 1st by 5 1/4
Beyer: 88
Another debut winner sired by Wildcat Heir, this colt dusted a good field of 2-year-old maidens, winning in a fast time (1:15.01) with something left at the wire. Bred short, he could be a top 3-year-old sprinter in 2015.
COMMENT: Irish Mission ran 11th in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, but the class relief here did the trick. From her outside post she stalked pacesetter Bohemian Dance through dawdling splits, remained wide and in the clear throughout, was asked for run on far turn, moved up to grab the lead into the lane, first rebuffed Always Kitten and then finished well to get to the line before hard-charging stablemate Tabreed.
Last Saturday’s caveman pick three at Gulfstream Park worked out well. After scratches, the 4x3x3 ticket caught Sky Flight ($11.40), Jonrah ($10.40), and Sandiva ($10.60) for a return of $194 for each $36 invested.
Let’s plow some profits back in Sunday’s early pick four at Gulfstream on races 2-5. At 50 cents per combination, it’s a 5x2x5x4 play for $100.
Race 2
I see two solid betting opportunities on Sunday's card at Gulfstream.
Race 4
The fourth is a maiden special weight for 2-year-old fillies and I will try to beat the morning-line favorite LOTS OF CHOCOLATE (3), a chalk who has lots going for her. For example:
A) She's a full sister to the Florida Derby winner Dialed In.
B) The second dam is Eliza, the winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.
C) She owns the best last Beyer Speed Figure.
ARCADIA, Calif. – Both turf sprints Sunday at Santa Anita offer the possibility of low-odds overlays. That is not a misprint. Overlays do occasionally emerge at low odds.
Race 6 is a $40,000 claiming sprint; race 8 is a Grade 3 stakes. Both will be run on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita. If the morning line holds up, Snowday and Bettys Bambino are worth tinkering with.
I’ll concentrate on four interesting races at Gulfstream on Saturday. There are three graded stakes on the card, and you can preview them here.
