RACE 8

Fully understand that TENNESEE (#7) can win this and ruin most of the value of this play, but I'll take a shot with HELIODORO (#3), who makes his second start for Nick Zito complete with works that suggest he's better than he showed in his debut. Also, POOL WINNER (#8) has some decent works for trainer Alan Goldberg (3).

RACE 9

The presence of Texas Red in the Grade 2 San Vicente, race 6, gives the late pick three appeal (races 6-8) as Texas Red can be your linchpin.

Race 6

TEXAS RED (#4) was dazzling in winning the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over this track in the fall. Sure, this is just a first step on the Kentucky Derby trail, but he’s been working well, and the winning seven-furlong profile for this track at this meet is tilted heavily toward closers, which is his style.

With the feature race, the Allen Jerkens Stakes, being a two-mile contest on the turf – the type of race rarely run in North America – this handicapper will steer clear of it and focus on other races instead. Betting it is just too much of a shot in the dark, with horses generally not having raced this far and jockeys being unaccustomed to riding in races of such length.

With 10 other races, there is no shortage of other spots from which to play.

Race 6

Small fields to start the card make finding plays difficult, but a couple of horses later on the card have some appeal and give options for in-race and multi-race wagers.

:: DRF Live: Get real-time updates and insights from DRF reporters and handicappers on Saturday

Race 5

ARCADIA, Calif. – The card Saturday at Santa Anita includes apparent standouts in the first and last legs of the pick five on races 1-5. With a pair of singles, the pick five (50-cent minimum, 14 percent takeout) looks affordable even for small bettors.

 Is the bet hittable with a $48 ticket? We will find out soon enough.

 Race 1

The longer the distance, the more class emerges – or so the theory goes. That means Unitarian or Reflecting should win the inaugural Allen Jerkens Stakes (race 9), and we’ll make them the keys in a late pick four (races 8-11).

Here’s the play:
Race 8 – 2, 4, 5, 7
Race 9 – 2, 3
Race 10 – 1, 2, 4, 7
Race 11 – 5, 6, 8, 14

50-cent ticket = $64

Note: The weather forecast for Saturday is very good, so also-eligibles and main-track-only horses were not considered.

The stylish victory last week of our top Pick, Khozan, once again demonstrates the fact that stride length counts (25.06 feet for him), and sometimes you can do OK at the windows with such a horse ($5.80 to win was a huge overlay).  But what is more interesting is that on last Saturday’s card, eight other BreezeFigs maidens won, four of them with longer-than-average stride lengths, and five of the six other BreezeFigs maiden winners during the whole week could makes the same claim.

Let’s say you’re a speed bettor – a handicapper who likes to play front-runners – and you’re analyzing the card at Fair Grounds. There are a few routes on the day, and you’re starting to zero in on your plays.

You examine the running styles of the competitors, take note of rider tendencies that might affect which horses are sent and which are rated, and, last but not least, you take note of the distances of the given routes because Fair Grounds has its one-mile races begin and end at the sixteenth pole, thereby creating a shorter stretch.

Trainer stats don’t always tell us if a horse is more likely to outrun its odds or be overbet. Typically, a trainer might have a win rate of between 12 and 18 percent and a return on investment in the $1.50 to $1.80 range for the angles that apply to the horse entered. But occasionally certain trainers have what I like to call a “power move,” an angle where they have been markedly more successful than their baseline. Today’s column will just look at a handful of “Bet This” moves in this area.

Santa Anita has a strong card Saturday with three graded stakes – the Grade 1, $300,000 Las Virgenes; the Grade 2, $200,000 Arcadia; and the Grade 2, $200,000 Palos Verdes. In Florida, the stakes focus shifts to Tampa Bay Downs, which has the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis; the Grade 3, $150,000 Endeavour; and the $100,000 Suncoast.

In one other stakes of note, champion 2-year-old filly Take Charge Brandi makes her 3-year-old debut in Oaklawn’s $100,000 Martha Washington.

Sam F. Davis Stakes