With 13 races Saturday – including six stakes, four of which are graded – the card at Gulfstream is ripe for indulgence, and like a decadent dessert, you have to love every bit of it.

Here’s a look at three of the stakes at Gulfstream and contenders that loom as overlays, which for one reason or another, may start a bit higher on the odds board than they should.

Donn Handicap (race 13)

Before we get to a Beyer Speed Figure examination of the biggest February weekend I can remember, let’s see what was learned last weekend.

There are big doings Saturday at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. Gulfstream has six stakes on its card, including a pair of Grade 1 races – the $500,000 Donn and the $300,000 Gulfstream Park Turf. Santa Anita has only three stakes and no Grade 1 races. But it does have a matchup everyone wants to see in the Grade 2, $500,000 San Antonio, with Horse of the Year California Chrome challenged by Shared Belief.

Fred W. Hooper Stakes

CONQUEST CURLINATE 
Trainer: Mark Casse
Last race: Jan. 31, 7th
Finish: 1st by 2 1/4 
Beyer: 74
He ran a big race in his first start in 2 1/2 months when, after missing the break in a maiden special weight race at 1 1/16 miles, he put in a sustained, wide run for a clear win. He is a long-range candidate for the Queen’s Plate, according to Casse. 

All Triple Crown nominated horse PPs are now available! The past performances are as of February 1, 2016.

2016 Triple Crown Nominees (Unnamed-B)

2016 Triple Crown Nominees (C-D)

2016 Triple Crown Nominees (E-F)

2016 Triple Crown Nominees (G-H)

The concept that a good trainer, even an Eclipse Award-winning trainer, can be a bad bet in certain circumstances was introduced in our very first “Bet This, Not That” column, in which we noted Todd Pletcher’s numbers in Grade 1 stakes on turf (1 for 50 with a $0.13 return on investment over the past five years as of this writing, with the last winner coming in July 2012) and Bob Baffert’s stats in turf sprints at Santa Anita (1 for 39, $0.09 ROI, with last winner coming in February 2010).

WICKED HEAT
Trainer: Richard Baltas
Last race: Jan. 29, 7th
Finish: 1st by 3 1/2
Beyer: 83
Off for seven months, this Unusual Heat gelding crushed a starter-allowance turf mile. He finished in 23 seconds and should be tough right back in a California-bred N1X.

BLITHELY
Trainer: Mark Hennig
Last race: Jan. 29, 7th
Finish: 3rd by 3/4
Beyer: 85
Consistently hard-trying New York-bred filly was stepping up against open secondary-allowance sprinters and might have been best after encountering traffic and steadying twice in the stretch while stuck along the inside.

Saturday, January 31

Tampa Bay Downs - Endeavour (race 10)

COMMENT: Hard Not to Like, making her first start since taking last April’s Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland, came back firing to finish first here, but some late antics cost her the win as she was disqualified in a debatable decision. She stalked the early pace, moved closer going down the backside, gamely went after then-leader Lots o’ Lex, surged past that foe, but then veered out in the final strides, forcing the rallying favorite, Testa Rossi, to take up sharply.

The Super Bowl Sunday card at Santa Anita is highlighted by the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes, which features the return of 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Texas Red. The San Vicente will be a race I will look to play, as well as the early double on the card.

RACES 1 and 2