After the Derby Day debacle, I got back to work the next day. The major reason for my losses on that day was my incomplete preparation, so I decided to focus on my personal odds line.
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DRF Past Performances
The Preakness monsoon cleared out the Pimlico infield, spread out the field by 48 lengths from front to back, and played mind games with figure makers, including those of us at Beyer Central.
“Making figures is sometimes a science and sometimes an art,” Andrew Beyer said. “This time, it was intelligent guesswork at best.”
The Beyer figures are determined by comparing times from all the races on a card.
“Everything that happened before the Preakness was irrelevant,” Beyer said.
Tapit’s World (#6, ML 3-1) takes on six in Wednesday’s eighth race at Delaware Park, the 1 1/16-mile Winter Melody Stakes. Since Jan. 1, 2014, trainer Michelle Nevin is winning at a 33 percent clip when saddling a horse switching from a sprint to a route, for a return on investment of $3.59.
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Sugar Devil (#7, ML 6-5) makes her return in Wednesday’s fourth race at Indiana Grand, a six-furlong allowance. It will be her first start since a first-place finish by 4 1/4 lengths in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight race April 29 at Indiana Grand. The third- and fourth-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.
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I’LL TAKE CHARGE
Trainer: Bill Mott
Last race: May 13, 6th
Finish: 2nd by 4 1/2
Beyer: 71
Tossed her head at the break to come away last, found herself 10 lengths behind after a half-mile, and finished well in seven-furlong debut; she is a half-sister to Grade 1 route winners Will Take Charge and Take Charge Indy, so effectiveness at longer distances should be in the cards.
SKYE DIAMONDS
Trainer: Michael Machowsky
Last race: May 14, 3rd
Finish: 2nd by 1 1/4
Beyer: 58
A 2-year-old first-time starter, this filly made an extended run wide into the lane, hit the front, and weakened. This was a solid debut by a daughter of first-crop sire First Dude.
CONQUEST BOOGALOO
Trainer: Mark Casse
Last race: May 16, 8th
Finish: 8th by 6 1/4
Beyer: 71
He lacked room along the inside from about the five-sixteenths pole until midstretch in the Grade 3 Marine Stakes, an important Queen’s Plate prep. He should be more prominent if things go his way in the Plate Trial Stakes.
Saturday, May 16
Belmont - Vagrancy Handicap (race 6)
COMMENT: La Verdad, the 7-10 favorite, got the job done, but it wasn’t easy. As expected she used her speed to go right to the lead, taking some early pressure from Frivolity. La Verdad moved off to a clear lead going down the backstretch as that rival weakened, remained clear into the lane, but then had to work some late to keep hard-trying Room for Me at bay in the final half-furlong, drifting out under a left-handed stick.
It’s not Big Apple Showcase Day, but New York-breds dominate the Sunday program at Belmont Park. All five non-claiming races are for statebreds, including the first three legs of the late pick four, which we will take a swing at here.