In the first two editions of the Penn Mile, there were pretty clear standouts. Not so this year.
It is an evenly matched group, with no Beyer Speed Figures of 90 or more but mid- to high 80s all over the place.
Papacoolpapacool is 3 for 3 on grass in 2015, with Beyers of 83, 87, and 87, the kinds of numbers that are likely to win this race. He should get a solid trip from the inside and is most likely to duplicate his numbers.
Trainer Joe Sharp saddles Indycott (#3, ML 7-2) in Thursday’s third race at Churchill Downs, a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer. Since Jan. 1, 2014, Sharp is winning at a 34 percent clip in first starts off a claim, for a return on investment of $2.61.
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Sentiero Italia (#1A, ML 4-1) returns in Thursday’s eighth race at Belmont Park, a one-mile allowance on turf. It will be her first start since finishing first by 1 1/4 lengths in a maiden special weight race on turf April 19 at Aqueduct. The third- and fourth-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.
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Download DRF Plus handicapping reports for Thursday's races, including DRF Bets GamePlan, the Positive ROI Report, and Key Race Report.
DRF Bets GamePlan
Closer looks for Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, and Gulfstream Park, and spot plays and live longshots for Belmont Park, Belterra Park, Charles Town, Gulfstream Park, and Louisiana Downs. Picks are chronologically listed, so you can build and plan your wagering day.
Trainer Marvin Johnson saddles Wild About Irene (#2, ML 12-1) in Wednesday’s seventh race at Indiana Grand, a six-furlong optional claimer. Since Jan. 1, 2014, Johnson is winning at a 35 percent clip when saddling a horse switching from route to sprint, for a return on investment of $3.90.
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Laura’s Melody (#8, ML 9-2) and Roll On Red Raider (#3, ML 10-1) return in Wednesday’s eighth race at Albuquerque, a 6 1/2-furlong allowance. It will be their first starts since finishing fourth and fifth, respectively, in a six-furlong allowance April 19 at Albuquerque. The first-, second-, and third-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.
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ANY GIVEN ROYAL
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Last race: May 22, 8th
Finish: 2nd by 1 1/4
Beyer: 86
Even though he was exiting a key race at Keeneland, he was sent off at a generous 10-1 in this second-level optional claimer. He was blocked behind rivals in the stretch of the one-mile turf route before swinging wide to finish a clear second.
Looks like several tricky races on this all NY-bred card. Not seeing any recent bias on turf or dirt, and prevailing conditions – fast and firm – should remain in play through last card of extended racing week. Few standouts in the stakes races, but plan to single KHARAFA in the late pick 4, and lean heavily on CHRYSOLITE to start off the early pick 4 and OSTROLENKA to end it.
