Pick five, what pick five? The most probable winner of Breeders’ Cup 2015 runs in race on 3 Saturday at Keeneland, effectively transforming the early pick five into a pick four.
The handicapping challenge is finding the two winners before Songbird in the Juvenile Fillies, and the two after. It will not be easy. Songbird is the race-3 “free square” in the 50-cent wager on races 1-5, but the four other races are deep.
:: See Brad Free’s pick five play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets
Songbird (Last 3 Beyers: 90-85-84)
• Morning-line favorite has the advantage of already having been two turns while winning the Grade 1 Chandelier Stakes. Remarkably, her 4 1/2-length margin of victory was the smallest of her career.
• Owns the field’s top career and last-out Beyer Speed Figure with a 90.
• Will have to cut across the rest of the field quickly to save ground from her outside post.
Cavorting (Last 3 Beyers: 100-93-100)
• A red-hot prospect ever since she won her debut in July 2014 at Belmont Park, this filly was assigned the far-outside post, which suits trainer Kiaran McLaughlin just fine: “There’s a long run down the backside to get position for the turn, and there’s plenty of leeway for the jock.”
Wedding Toast (Last 3 Beyers: 103-102-97)
• Godolphin homebred has been an absolute terror in one-turn routes at Belmont, but trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said the 5-year-old mare is similarly able at other venues. “She was at a disadvantage when we started her off going short early in the year,” he said.
THRILLED (Last 3 Beyers: 78-73-72)
• Traded decisions with possible favorite Harmonize in a pair of matchups prior to a runner-up finish in the Miss Grillo, edging Harmonize by a nose in a maiden race Aug. 9 before running second, beaten four lengths by her, in the P.G. Johnson; perhaps poised to see an inside-pocket trip behind the speed.
HARD NOT TO LIKE (Last 3 Beyers: 86-101-95)
• Sits at 10-1 on the morning line for those willing to forgive her last-out eighth in the Rodeo Drive; that failure aside, she has typically been an honest and high-class performer, winning two Grade 1 races in 2015.
LEGATISSIMO (No Beyers)
• Comes into the race with the best credentials of any overseas raider, having been first or second in six straight races; can handle any type of ground or distance and is well drawn in post 3.
An all-Breeders’ Cup pick four is the highlight exotic wager Friday at Keeneland, beginning in race 6 with the Juvenile Turf, and continuing through the ninth, the day’s big event, the Distaff. As is typical of the Breeders’ Cup races, these are contentious races, virtually necessitating that horseplayers go deep with their wagers. That is the strategy in this corner, anyway.
There is a $1.5 million guaranteed pool for the wager.
:: See Byron King’s pick four play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets
Liam’s Map (Last 3 Beyers: 114-113-106)
• Comes off two dynamite performances at Saratoga, winning the Grade 1 Woodward by 4 3/4 lengths four weeks after losing the Grade 1 Whitney by a neck to Honor Code.
• Connections had the option to stretch him out to 1 1/4 miles in the $5 million Classic or cut him back to a mile, a distance at which he is 3 for 3. Owner Vinnie Viola opted for the known rather than the unknown.
Airoforce (Last 2 Beyers: 80-78)
• Airoforce successfully stretched out from his maiden victory at six furlongs to take the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes, Keeneland’s local prep for this event, at 1 1/16 miles. The Bourbon was run over a course rated “yielding.” With Lexington getting significant rain early in Breeders’ Cup week, he is likely to get a soft course Friday.
