Each week, TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski takes a look back at the weekend’s graded stakes and releases the TimeformUS Speed Figures for these races.
Santa Anita
Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes
1/2 137
3/4 137
Fin 131
Top 3: Unique Bella 133, Mopotism 120, Majestic Heat 105
Note: 2017 Eclipse-winning female sprinter remained undefeated in three starts around two turns; second-largest winning TimeformUS Speed Figure of 2018 thus far (Gun Runner, 141)
Grade 3, $200,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs, Feb. 10, 2018
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Flameaway, by Scat Daddy
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Owner: John C. Oxley
Beyer Speed Figure: 92
Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:58 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
Race 3:
Forres Lily (#6)
Has run better than it appears on a few occasions, including when she was against a gold rail on Aug. 13 at Saratoga.
Handled a sloppy track in her return last time and is likely to get another wet track today.
Gets a positive rider switch to Trevor McCarthy.
7-2 on ML
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Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 3:30 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
An appealing 12-race card at Gulfstream today, and I’ll focus on the back third, starting with race 9, since I have opinions in that race and in race 10.
Race 9, the Gulfstream Park Turf, is a Grade 1 that hardly has a field of international renown, but that’s the way winter turf racing in North America tends to shake out. HEART TO HEART (#1) is the most proven Grade 1 type in the bunch and is the 5-2 morning-line favorite, while MONEY MULTIPLIER (#5) is the shortest price at 3-1 on the line among three Chad Brown-trained entrants.
Three graded stakes highlight the Saturday card at Santa Anita: the Santa Maria, the Thunder Road, and the San Vicente. Unique Bella, Blackjackcat, and Ax Man all appear to be legitimate short-priced favorites, but I’ll take a serious swing against one of them. I’ll also look to make a win wager later on the card in race 9.
RACE 6 – SAN VICENTE
Race 4:
Summer Revolution (#6)
Was chasing a very fast pace last time in the Toboggan and had every right to tire in the late stages.
Has compiled a record of 3 wins and 1 second in 4 starts against non-stakes company.
Should sit a perfect trip stalking the two main speeds.
5-2 on ML
Race 6:
H Man (#8)
Raced 3 to 4 wide against a golden rail last time out.
Should be totally fit in his third start back from a layoff.
Not seeing vulnerability in Catholic Boy and World Approval in separate stakes on Saturday at Tampa, the late Pick 4 there seems best played using a fairly minimal number of combinations. Only the last leg of the wager, a $6,250 claimer, seems wide open and worthy of diving deep.
Here's my analysis of the sequence and my suggested ticket:
Leg One, Race 9, The Endeavour
The first race of the sequence looks safely played using two top-class grass fillies: La Coronel (7) and Dona Bruja (2).
