Reversethedecision
Trainer: Chad Brown
Last race: April 14, 9th 
Finish: 1st by 1 3/4 
Beyer: 83
Three-year-old filly flashed some promise while closing to finish 3rd in her career debut despite obvious greenness, and she improved in her second start to fly by the leaders in the stretch en route to an impressive maiden win

Grade 3, $200,000 Lexington Stakes; 1 1/16 miles; Keeneland; April 14, 2018
(20 Derby qualifying points for a win, 8 for second, 4 for third, 2 for fourth)

Winner: My Boy Jack, by Creative Cause
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Owner: Don’t Tell My Wife Stables and Monomoy Stables LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 90

Oaklawn

G1 Arkansas Derby

1/2       111

3/4       110

Fin       119

Top 3: Magnum Moon 116, Quip 113, Solomini 112

Note: Six-furlong fraction coded blue by TimeformUS---slow pace; lowest winning figure of all the 100 point Kentucky Derby points races

April 13

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:44 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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Brett Davis

R1: 3-4-6-7

R2: 1-2-4-5

R3: 3-2-4-8

R4: 1-6-9-11

R5: 8-4-9-11

R6: 3-1-6-4

R7: 3-12-11-8

R8: 9-1-3-6

R9: 4-13-8-3

R10: 6-3-11-4

R11: 4-6-5-10

Best Bet: R5 N8   Honest Way  

Longshot: R3 N4 Positively High

Best Play: R3   Q/QP   2,3,4

Paul Lally

R1: 6-3-4-2

R2: 10-1-4-7

R3: 3-2-8-9

R4: 1-3-6-4

R5: 8-3-1-9

R6: 1-8-3-5

R7: 3-9-10-12

R8: 1-3-10-9

R9: 4-7-13-11

R10: 11-3-6-1

A key change in the 11th race Saturday at Keeneland, where Alberobello drew in from the also-eligible list, makes the late pick five an appealing wager. Her presence may provide a “free square” in the sequence, reducing the cost and making it easier to spread in other races.

What follows is how I advise playing the bet with a $48 play.

Race 7

Race 3:
War Chest (#4)

Was impressive in his winning debut at Belmont last year.

Got poor trips in each of his last two starts against winners.

DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Shug McGaughey is 21 for 90 (23 percent, $2.09 ROI) with horses that coming off 75- to 150-day layoffs in turf routes.

3-1 on ML

I’ll start off the nine-race Sunday card with what I hope is a wire-to-wire winner of the 1:05 p.m. Eastern opener, YANKTON (5), who gets a triple-dose of firsts for ever-capable trainer Phil Sims. He’s a first-time gelding going for a first tag when stretching out for the first time when exiting one of those rugged Oaklawn MSWs that drew a full field; looking for Gabriel Saez, who has enjoyed a terrific start to this spring meet, to go straight to the lead.