Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 4:11 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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A top-class distaff turf miler looks like the linchpin for Saturday’s late pick four at Laurel (races 7-10).

Race 7

A 3-year-old who appears to have blossomed once moved to a route looms a key for a play in Saturday’s early pick four at Woodbine (races 4-7).

Race 4

Race 2: Tiz a Kitten (#4)

Is likely to get overlooked based on her poor recent dirt form despite the fact that her turf races make her competitive.

Comes back on short rest for the capable Scott Lake barn.

Possesses early speed in race where her main rivals are plodding late runners.

12-1 on ML

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Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 3:38 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 

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This I know for certain after the final round of American Kentucky Derby preps: Santa Anita Derby winner Justify is at least five lengths faster than the winners of the other races.

If this was Big Brown or California Chrome’s year, I would pronounce Justify a cinch. However, the other final prep winners are pretty consistent. Not super fast, but consistent. And UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn is an absolute cause for concern.

Going back to the Louisiana Derby, I have analyzed seven final Derby preps from a Beyer-figure standpoint, including that amazing performance in Dubai.

Now that the frenzy of the Kentucky Derby prep season is over, we’ve hit a relatively quiet interlude in the national stakes schedule before the spring classics begin, even with a $1.2 million stakes event Saturday. That race is the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic, one of four graded stakes that day. The others are the Grade 2, $250,000 Elkhorn at Keeneland, plus the Grade 2, $200,000 Kona Gold and the Grade 3, $100,000 American at Santa Anita.

Elkhorn Stakes

CINAMMON TWIST
Trainer: Vladimir Cerin
Last race: April 13, 7th
Finish: 1^st by 4 1/4
Beyer: 70
This 3-year-old claiming filly scored a decisive victory for trainer Simon Callaghan, was claimed by Cerin for $16,000, and can win again on the hike. Runs best from off the pace.

Race 4:
Conquest So True (#2)

Was hindered by a slow pace last time out while facing a better rival in Wildcat Belle.

Has handled this distance in the past.

DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, David Jacobson is 8 for 17 (47 percent, $3.20 ROI) with horses going from sprints to routes on the dirt second off the claim and running back on short rest of 14 days or less.

7-2 on ML

Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 5:49 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 

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